261
FXUS65 KFGZ 100528
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1030 PM MST Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will slowly warm with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Expect typical
spring-like breezes each afternoon, and above normal temperatures
returning by Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...The cumulus clouds that brought virga to portions of
northern Arizona today are dissipating. Expect a generally cool
and clear night with light winds. For those around active fires,
smoke may settle near the surface tonight and create areas of poor
air quality. Adjustments were made to the smoke, haze, sky cover,
and wind grids this evening. Otherwise, the existing forecast is
in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 PM MST/...An elongated trough of low pressure
extends from the Bay Area to the Upper Midwest this afternoon.
Arizona is on the southern edge of this trough with southwest-
westerly winds aloft. This trough will slowly move southward over
the next few days as it weakens...and becomes a cut off low. A few
rain showers and virga showers developed over the high country
this afternoon. More showers and thunderstorms are expected on
Friday. Precipitation will be limited to the northern zones on
Saturday and more likely in the Four Corners area. By Sunday, only
the Four Corners will see a few showers.

A weak low from the Pacific will drive over Arizona on Monday with
isolated showers. On Tuesday, a trough of low pressure will drop
south out of Canada and across Arizona with a chance of a few more
showers.

Temperatures will remain below average on Friday then ramp up to
above average on Sunday. Afternoon highs likely reaching 70+
degrees for many areas above 6000 feet...with areas below 3000
feet reaching the 90s. Winds still look to be typical spring-
like breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 10/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 9kft AGL will redevelop AFT 18Z Friday.
Cloud development will be mainly north of a KPRC-KRQE line. ISOLD
-SHRA/-TSRA possible north of the KGCN terminal. Some FU producing
VIS from 2-4SM possible near the KSEZ and KFLG terminals through the
period. Sfc winds light and variable overnight, with some NE
drainage winds just SW of higher terrain and at terminal KSEZ.
Otherwise, S-SW5-15kts 18Z Friday-02Z Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 11/06Z through Monday 13/06Z...Expect mostly VFR
conditions. Afternoon SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 8kft AGL, ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
possible, mainly north of a KFLG-KRQE line. Areas VIS 2-4SM with FU
near prescribed burns. Sfc winds light and variable in the overnight
and early morning hours, westerly 5-15kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Expect clear and cool nights
and afternoon mid-level cumulus development each afternoon. A few
high-based showers or thunderstorms are possible, especially north
of I-40. Most clouds will just produce VIRGA. Winds generally light
and favoring a west through southwest direction in the daytime.

Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures warm above average during this
forecast period, with very low chances for high-based showers or
thunderstorms persisting. Winds generally light.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/MAS
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff