895
FXUS65 KFGZ 170514
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1014 PM MST Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will return to northern
Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually
increasing each afternoon. Unsettled weather is possible next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...A few lingering light showers are hanging on around the
White Mountains this evening, but are quickly dissipating. They
should diminish in the next hour or so leaving us with a drier
weather pattern for the coming weekend. Expect scattered to broken
cloud cover this evening to gradually clear. Overnight low
temperatures will be just a couple of degrees warmer than last
night. The forecast trends are on track with no updates planned
this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /422 PM MST/...Through Tonight...As a shortwave
departs Arizona today, one last round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected for today. Showers and thunderstorms
have already begun to develop mainly over the higher terrain to
the east of a Crown King to Happy Jack to Ganado line. Coverage
should continue to increase over the higher terrain of central and
eastern Arizona through the afternoon, then moving north to south
off the terrain. Given the flow, the most likely areas to see
some showers look to be the Bradshaw Mountains eastward across the
Mogollon Rim and into the White Mountains. Additional activity is
expected over the Chuska Mountains as well. With PWAT largely
0.30-0.50 inches across the area, coverage should be mainly
isolated. Additionally, with dry air in the lower levels, the main
threats from any storm should be just gusty, erratic outflow
winds and lightning. Coverage should begin to decrease later this
evening, with only a couple lingering showers expected near the
White Mountains through midnight.

Friday through Sunday...Drier conditions begin to set in as high
pressure builds back into Arizona. Temperatures will remain around 5
deg F above normal through the weekend. Winds will gradually increase
from the southwest, with afternoon breezes around 25-35 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...A cut-off low off the California Coast
begins to make an approach at the start of next week. Much stronger
winds ensue on Monday as the low moves into Arizona and looks to
phase with a secondary trough moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Model soundings indicate that winds in excess of 35-45 mph are
probable along and downwind of the higher terrain. The gusty winds
combined with a dry air mass in place could potentially lead to
critical fire weather conditions come Monday. As of now, gusty winds
and cooler temperatures look to be the only sensible weather impacts
as moisture looks to be too scarce for any mentionable precipitation
chances.

Behind the low, zonal flow looks to set in for the middle of next
week. Breezy winds, dry conditions, and near-normal temperatures
look to remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 17/06Z through Saturday 18/06Z...VFR conditions
and mainly light west and southwest winds. Stronger gusts of 20
to 30 knots may develop Friday afternoon and evening from KINW to
KSJN. Elsewhere, expect peak gusts around 20 knots Friday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 18/06Z through Monday 20/06Z...VFR conditions
and southwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots each
day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Dry conditions return for
Friday and Saturday. South to west winds 10-20 mph with afternoon
RH values between 10-20%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
through the start of the week. Southwest to west winds 15-25 mph
gusting to 30-35 mph Sunday, increasing to 25-35 mph gusting to 35-
45 mph on Monday, then decreasing on Tuesday. Afternoon RH values
will range between 5-15% each day. Near critical fire weather
concerns, especially across eastern Arizona, on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT/Humphreys
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff