318
FXUS65 KFGZ 150345
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
845 PM MST Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will cross to our south on Wednesday,
bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
Drier, warmer, and breezy conditions arrive Friday, continuing
through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...A few showers have persisted past sunset this evening
with isolated, weak thunderstorms impacting areas in northeast
Arizona. This last bit of activity will subside over the next
couple hours. Partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight will help
to keep early morning temperatures a bit warmer for some areas.
High temperatures Wednesday will be highly dependent on cloud
cover and the location of precipitation with areas that receive
rain on the cooler side. Overall, temperatures remain near average
for this time of year. Minimal updates were made to the forecast
this evening to account for the aforementioned ongoing showers.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /451 PM MST/...Low pressure will move onshore in
southern California tonight while a trough to our north starts to
dive down to the southeast. The low will cross to the south of
our area on Wednesday, then moves off to the east of our area on
Thursday as a ridge of high pressure makes its way into the desert
southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...moisture will continue to increase across
the region on Wednesday with more widespread chances for showers and
scattered thunderstorms. While we expect an increase in shower
coverage, the rainfall amounts still do not look all that
impressive. Most areas that do see some rain will see around 0.10"
or less, though some of the more robust storms may drop between 0.25-
0.40". Dynamics are not stellar with this system but any
thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential to have some
outflow winds in the 30-40 mph range. With the aforementioned trough
diving towards the southeast, we will keep some energy moving
through the region during the night. With that in mind, it seems
likely that there will be some ongoing shower activity as we head
through the overnight and into Thursday morning. By Thursday
morning, the trough and its lingering energy should be more situated
over New Mexico and any early morning showers should be dwindling.
Heading through the day Thursday, the low pushes to the east of the
region and the more northerly flow should allow for some drier air
to infiltrate the region. However, there will still be plenty of
moisture in place through day and another round of showers and
thunderstorms can be expected. The areas that see showers will be
more confined to the Mogollon Rim through the White Mountains,
through some isolated showers may develop elsewhere. Shower activity
will wane through the evening and everything looks to start clearing
out across the region overnight as the dry air wins out.

Friday through Tuesday...a ridge of high pressure will follow in the
wake of the departing low and trough, allowing the region to dry
out and start to warm once again. Consensus is fairly good that we
will keep the ridges influence through much of the weekend before
the models start to diverge a bit. Another trough/low is expected to
develop over the eastern Pacific and track towards Arizona for the
start of the week. There are enough differences in the model
solutions to have a lower confidence on just how strong/deep the
low/trough may be and just how much moisture it may be able to
advect into the region. However, it does look unsettled and windy
through late in the weekend and into early next week. Stay tuned as
we start to unravel what this system may bring to our area.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 15/00Z through Thursday 16/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are forecast. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible in showers/thunderstorms through the early evening and
again Wednesday from late morning through the afternoon. Be on the
lookout for strong and gusty winds near heavier showers or
storms. Otherwise, light and variable winds overnight will become
southwest to west at 10-20 kts Wednesday afternoon.


OUTLOOK...Thursday 16/00Z through Saturday 18/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected. Precipitation chances will linger through
12Z Thursday, but drier conditions look to return for much of
Thursday and Friday. Winds will generally be out of the west 10-20
kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Scattered
showers/thunderstorms expected both Wednesday and Thursday, but look
for greater coverage Wednesday afternoon. Expect mostly west winds 5-
15 mph Wednesday, becoming more northwest winds on Thursday. Minimum
RH values look to be between 15-30% each afternoon.

Friday through Sunday...Warmer and drier weather conditions are
expected through the weekend. Look for west-southwest winds 15-25
mph, gusting near 30 mph each afternoon. Expect minimum RH values
ranging between 10-20%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon/Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff