Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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611 FXUS65 KFGZ 241013 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 315 AM MST Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry and breezy weather continues across northern Arizona through Saturday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, remaining through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...A broad and longer-wave trough to our north will have one last s/wv move through it today and Saturday, before the pattern breaks apart and shifts east. This s/wv will deliver windy conditions to our area today and into Saturday, with the axis of higher winds shifting into the eastern CWA by Saturday, The timing has changed subtly, allowing for less wind speeds today and then the stronger winds aloft moving through Arizona overnight, mixing out again to the east Saturday. We were already looking at borderline Wind Advisory criteria today, along with near Critical Fire Weather conditions east of Flagstaff. With the timing change, we will definitely avoid and headlines today, but may have to consider at least a wind product for our eastern zones on Saturday. After Saturday, higher hghts move into the southwestern U.S. with decreasing gradients. As a result, expect a solid warming trend next week, with less wind and continued dry weather. && .AVIATION...Friday 24/06Z through Saturday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR conditions around KCMR and KFLG due to smoke and haze. Light winds overnight will ramp up after daybreak. Southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots, gusting 30 to 40 knots, will become common after 18Z before weakening during the evening hours. Patches of blowing dust are possible around KINW. OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/06Z through Monday 27/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions continue. On Saturday, southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots with gusts of up to 40 knots. On Sunday, generally west winds at 10 to 20 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Dry conditions with cooler than normal temperatures. Near-critical fire weather conditions expected today and Saturday across the Little Colorado River Valley. Winds southwest 15-25 mph, with gusts 25-35 mph each afternoon. Minimum afternoon RH values 10-20%. Sunday through Tuesday...Warming temperatures and continued dry conditions. Winds primarily southwest 10-20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH values 5-15%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Benji FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff