Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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570 FXUS65 KFGZ 192047 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 147 PM MST Wed Jun 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Another dry day with seasonal temperatures is in store today. Increasing moisture will bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms from Thursday through the early part of next week. Warming temperatures are expected from Thursday onward. && .DISCUSSION...One last dry day is on tap as a trough continue`s to hang over the western U.S., resulting in another breezy afternoon. Thursday will see that trough receding to the north as high pressure builds in. Accompanying the high will be moisture provided by Tropical Storm Alberto that is currently impacting southern Texas. That said, best lift and moisture availability remains primarily to the east tomorrow, with greatest thunderstorm coverage expected for areas in Apache and Navajo counties, generally north of I40. Development is possible elsewhere, but will be more isolated. Friday still looks to have the greatest coverage in showers and storms out of the forecast period as this is when PWATs will be at their highest, ranging from half an inch to easily over an inch. Still some question to intensity and coverage as it still doesn`t seem to be for the whole coverage area. There will certainly be areas that don`t receive any rainfall out of this. On the flip side, stronger thunderstorms will have the potential to bring more than an inch of rainfall, along with the usual threat of outflow winds, small hail, and of course lightning. New fires starts from lightning are still possible as strikes outside storms into dry areas will likely occur. High temperatures were adjusted down slightly from the straight NBM not just for Friday, but the weekend as well as cloud cover should help hold temperatures down slightly, especially over the higher terrain. As we move into the weekend, high pressure continues to build overhead with moisture remaining trapped underneath. It`ll be a slow, downward trend in the coverage of showers and storms. Guidance continues to hit on lift becoming more confined along the higher terrain by the early part of next week, resulting in lower POPs. Still, both GFS and Euro models show that PWATs remain elevated through next week, but just dropping slightly. While the moisture persists, increasing heights and decreasing afternoon clouds will result in increasing temperatures next week. Heat Risk starts to highlight many lower elevation locations Tuesday into Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 19/18Z through Thursday 20/18Z...VFR conditions with south to southwest winds at 10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts are forecast. Winds becoming light and variable after 03Z. Southeast to south winds at 10-20 kts return after 15Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 20/18Z through Saturday 22/18Z...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with localized MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic outflow winds possible. VFR conditions are otherwise expected with winds south at 15-20 kts gusting to 20-30 kts Thursday and Friday. Lighter and variable winds return on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday... Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms with the best chances for a wetting rain over the eastern zones. South winds 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Continued hot. Saturday through Monday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Light and variable winds on Saturday and Sunday becoming west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph on Monday. Turning hotter. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff