Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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411 FXUS64 KFWD 221838 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 138 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday/ The first day of astronomical fall will feel more like late August with widespread highs in the low to mid-90s expected this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed in the vicinity of a slow-moving cold front currently situated from Central Oklahoma to Northwest Texas. Current analysis of the speed of this frontal boundary and the latest suite of high-resolution guidance places the front in our far west and northwest counties by ~6PM this evening. With the greatest synoptic-scale support displaced to the north of our forecast area, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to remain more scattered south of the Red River as the front shifts into North Texas. Isentropic ascent atop the frontal layer and a modest vorticity maxima shifting overhead tonight into early Monday will keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through Monday morning. Rainfall totals will remain quite light across most of the region with a 40-50% chance for 1+" totals along/west of Highway 281 with the initial activity that enters our area later this evening. Severe weather is not expected, however isolated 30-40 mph wind gusts across our far west will be possible. The front will push through the entirety of our forecast area into Central and Southeast Texas by midday Monday with rain chances tapering off as the primary mid- and upper-level support shifts to the northeast. Cloud cover and post-frontal northwesterly winds will finally break the streak of abnormally warm weather we have been experiencing the past several days. Expect high temperatures to top in the mid-70s to lower 80s across much of North Texas Monday afternoon with upper 80s to lower 90s across our far southern zones. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ /Tuesday through Saturday/ The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the Central Plains will enable a persistent northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve encountered of late. A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller- scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our second primary opportunity for precipitation across the area this week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms, will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that point onward through Saturday. The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower 80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the central counties. These values were consistent with those offered by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through much of the overnight for all North and Central Texas terminals ahead of the passage of a cold front currently situated roughly from Enid, OK (KWDG) to Lubbock, TX (KLBB). Expect south flow around 10 kts gusting to 20 kts at times through this evening and early overnight before shifting northwesterly ~05Z at the D10 terminals and ~10Z-11Z at KACT. Widespread postfrontal MVFR cigs are expected to overspread the region by early Monday morning remaining overhead through at least early Monday afternoon. There is a low chance for a few hours of IFR cigs Monday morning, and the need for an IFR addition to the TAF will be evaluated in future TAF updates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to shift toward the UKW and JEN cornerposts later this evening, then increasing in coverage along the I-35 corridor after midnight tonight. The greatest rain chances (30-40%) at D10 look to occur in the 09Z-15Z time frame. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 70 80 67 83 / 10 30 30 10 20 Waco 94 72 87 69 87 / 0 20 20 10 30 Paris 93 70 83 63 84 / 0 20 40 10 10 Denton 94 66 80 62 84 / 10 40 40 10 20 McKinney 95 69 82 64 84 / 10 30 40 10 20 Dallas 96 71 83 67 84 / 10 30 30 10 20 Terrell 95 72 85 66 85 / 0 20 30 10 20 Corsicana 96 74 88 69 87 / 0 10 20 10 20 Temple 95 72 90 69 88 / 0 20 20 10 30 Mineral Wells 93 65 80 62 82 / 20 50 40 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$