348
FXUS64 KFWD 191939
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/
Update:
/Start Of The Week/

The previous short-term discussions below handle everything
through tonight well and see no significant changes (more like a
few tweaks) to the forecast.

Monday will be mostly a carbon-copy of today with an upper ridge
keeping any mid level systems deflected well to the north of the
area with subsidence keeping the area very breezy, warm, and
humid. Brief morning stratus will occur across parts of Central
Texas near the Waco/Killeen/Temple areas as more moisture-rich air
just below the LLJ remains. Even some patchy light/early morning
fog is possible whenever extended lulls in wind speeds occur. The
threat for strong to severe storms will also be displaced well to
our north from northern Oklahoma into Kansas and Missouri while
subsidence under the mid level ridge maintains rain-free weather
around here.

High temperatures both days will average from the mid 80s to
around 90 degrees, with a few readings in the mid 90s across the
higher terrain of our Big Country counties west of Hwy 281. A
tight pressure gradient will maintain breezy south winds and an
influx of humidity as low level moisture remains replenished from
parcels moving northward from the GoM. This will result in low
temperatures remaining elevated tomorrow morning with widespread
upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, these conditions and green
up from recent wet conditions will minimize any fire weather
concerns.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
Update:
The forecast is in good shape and we will only make some minor
hourly cloud adjustments based on the stratus currently moving
through Central Texas. These clouds will lift and scatter as they
spread northward, leaving plenty of sun this afternoon to push
temps into the upper 80s and lower 90s.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Sunday night/

The upper ridge currently over the Central and Southern Plains
will shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a broader trough
in the northern branch of the jet stream translates across the
western CONUS. This upper pattern will allow for a surface trough
to develop lee of the Central Rockies. The resultant pressure
gradient will bring an increase in southerly winds to the region
along with a constant fetch of Gulf moisture. The moisture surge
will keep overnight lows warm (upper 60s to lower 70s) and bring
early morning low clouds and patchy fog to parts of Central Texas.
The moisture return will be a bit deeper than it was Saturday
morning so it may take until mid to late morning before low
clouds/fog lift and dissipate. Ample afternoon sun and low level
warm advection will make for a hot, breezy, and humid afternoon
Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and afternoon heat
index values generally in the middle 90s. Warm and humid weather
will continue Sunday night with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s
once again. Wind speeds Sunday night will be strong enough to
limit fog production.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Through Next Weekend/

Uncomfortably warm and humid conditions are expected into early this
upcoming week as upper level ridging and warm air advection persist
overtop the region. By Monday night, a longwave trough will have
made residence across the western CONUS. A progressive shortwave
disturbance will move through the mid-level flow across the Central
Plains on Tuesday, effectively shunting the ridge axis further east
into the Deep South. As this initial shortwave ejects to our
northeast, there is potential for isolated showers and storms near
the Red River Tuesday night.

Immediately behind the departing shortwave, a secondary shortwave
disturbance will swing across the Great Plains overnight into
Wednesday and send a cold front southward. This front is progged to
make it into our northwestern counties during the day Wednesday, but
exactly how far the front will progress is still uncertain at this
time. Ensemble and cluster guidance do not have the front making it
too far into our CWA before it loses upper support and stalls. The
NAM has it well farther south, essentially bisecting the region
before stalling. Nonetheless, lift from the front will interact with
moisture and instability, allowing for showers and storms along and
ahead of the front as it moves south. Instability, shear, and mid-
level lapse rates will be enough to promote strong to severe storms
during the afternoon and evening. Another shortwave is expected to
move into the Southern Plains on Thursday, forcing the front to
regress northward as a warm front. The lift from this passing
shortwave will allow for another blossoming of storms, some strong
to severe, over the afternoon and evening hours.

Storm chances will come to an end on Friday as the source of lift
skirts away to the east/northeast. However, on-and-off isolated
storm chances will continue to be possible through the weekend as
additional mid-level impulses move through the overall flow. The
heat will once again ramp up through the weekend with highs in the
90s and dewpoints remaining in the 60 and 70s. Heat indices will
be a bit higher than ambient temperatures in response, so make
sure to stay aware of outdoor conditions and practice heat safety
this upcoming weekend.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 154 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024/
/18z TAFs/

Similar to this past morning, the only challenge and concern for
the midday aviation forecast will be timing and duration of IFR
(possibly LIFR) cigs from 11z-14z, along with the possibility of
an hour or two of MVFR vsbys whenever sustained wind speeds
briefly drop off. All these concerns will be confined to Waco
Regional Airport only, as a southerly LLJ around 1500 ft above the
surface veers and weakens after 12z Monday.

Otherwise, VFR conditions with little in the way of cloud cover
are expected across most of the D10. S winds will average 12-16
kts with periodic gusts upward to 25 kts. No precipitation or
weather impacts to the arrival or departure of commercial aircraft
are anticipated at DFW/DAL.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
Waco                69  90  73  90  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               69  89  70  87  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              72  90  72  89  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
McKinney            72  90  73  87  75 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dallas              72  91  75  90  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             70  89  72  87  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           70  88  74  90  76 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              69  90  72  89  75 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       70  92  73  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$