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555
FXUS64 KFWD 181939
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1052 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021/
/This afternoon through Monday/

A few of our far western zones started out the day in the mid 30s
while most other locations stayed in the 40s. A steady warmup is
underway late this morning under abundant sun and decreasing low
level cold air advection. The only exception is across parts of
Central Texas where mid and upper level clouds are slowing the
warming process a bit. By afternoon, all locations should warm
into the 60s with even a few lower 70s possible. However, a
northerly wind in the 10 to 15 mph range will make it feel a
little cooler.

Wind speeds will decrease quickly around sunset once surface high
pressure settles over the region and the boundary layer decouples.
Mostly clear, dry and calm conditions will yield another cool
night with lows from the upper 30s in the west to the middle 40s
in urban areas and across parts of Central Texas.

Southwesterly flow aloft, weak low level warm air advection and
plenty of sun will result in a warmer day Monday with highs
generally in the lower and middle 70s. The only exception will be
across the southwest zones where middle and high clouds associated
with an approaching shortwave will likely keep highs in the upper
60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/

A cold front will be barreling southward across the Southern
Plains as we begin a new work week, expected to advance into North
Texas around sunrise Tuesday morning. Although the forecast will
remain dry as the front moves through the region, there will be
major temperature implications given the cold air moving in behind
the front. Tuesday afternoon highs will be capped in the 50s and
60s across much of North Texas with 70s across Central Texas given
the delayed arrival of the front.

Confidence is increasing in the potential for widespread frost to
affect North and portions of Central Texas as temperatures dip
into the 30s early Wednesday morning. This could damage any
sensitive vegetation, therefore, we advise you begin making
preparations to protect any vegetation that may become damaged
from frost. Confidence in widespread freezing to subfreezing
temperatures remains low at this time, therefore, a freeze watch
will not be issued with this package. We`ll continue to analyze
the latest data as a 1-2 degree lowering in temperatures could
result in widespread freezing temperatures north and west of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

A surface high will remain across the Southern Plains through
Thursday before moving eastward Thursday evening. This will lead
to a return of southerly winds across the region, along with
increasing cloud cover Thursday night. Leeside surface
cyclogenesis is likely to occur across the Central Plains, further
enhancing the low-level southerly flow through the day on Friday.
An approaching mid-level disturbance will increase shower and
thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon and evening, although the
specific details regarding the overall environment remain unclear
at the moment. We`ll continue to assess Friday and Saturday`s
forecast in the coming days for a risk of strong to severe
thunderstorms.


Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1052 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021/
/18Z TAFs/

No aviation weather concerns across North and Central Texas through
Monday afternoon with VFR and only scattered high clouds across
the Metroplex TAF sites. Central Texas, including Waco, will see
scattered to broken high clouds through the TAF period.

A north wind between 8 and 13 knots today will decrease below 8
knots after sunset, becoming light and variable during the evening
and south overnight. Wind speeds Monday morning will remain below
8 knots, increasing between 8 and 12 knots in the afternoon.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  74  51  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                43  72  49  71  39 /   0   5   0   5   0
Paris               41  72  47  61  35 /   0   0   0   5   0
Denton              39  73  46  59  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            41  73  48  61  35 /   0   0   0   5   0
Dallas              48  75  52  64  40 /   0   0   0   5   0
Terrell             42  71  47  65  35 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           44  72  49  70  37 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              43  71  48  75  38 /   0   5   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       40  73  45  60  33 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$