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000
FXUS64 KFWD 182328
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
628 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Thursday Night/

Very little change to the forecast through Thursday as we remain
generally hot and dry across the region with some passing high
cloud cover. The clouds held temperatures down several degrees
earlier today, but as soon as they passed, temps rapidly climbed
into the upper 90s. A surface low north of Abilene near a well
defined dryline is where the hottest temperatures are. A few
locations have approached 110 degrees.

For the remainder of this evening, the main concern will be
watching the dryline where visible satellite and radar confirm a
few weak convective attempts, however the window on convective
potential is closing. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer,
MUCAPE is only around 1000 J/kg and in the absence of any stronger
forcing, updrafts are struggling to maintain themselves. However,
the high based convection will be very conducive to strong
downdrafts, even with showers, so we`ll monitor this potential
into the evening. PoPs will remain <10%.

Another hot day is expected on Thursday with a dryline across our
northwest counties and breezy southerly winds. Similar to today,
we`ll be watching a low potential for anything to develop along
the dryline which would be accompanied by a downburst wind threat.
At this time we`ll keep PoPs at 10% or less.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 317 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Another hot day is expected on Friday with high temperatures ranging
from the low 90s across our northeast to near 100 across western
North Texas. A dryline will sharpen across our west throughout the
day and will serve as a focus for thunderstorm development early
Friday evening as a shortwave swings across the region. Although
deep layer shear will be limited, inverted-V and strongly
unstable forecast soundings indicate a few storms may be capable
of producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts. This activity
will move east into Friday night, but will be on a weakening
trend, especially after sunset.

On Saturday, a cold front will enter North Texas, with additional
chances for showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday and
Sunday. The most robust activity will be ahead of the front in
Central Texas; however, limited shear should preclude any severe
weather threat. Persistent weak moist ascent may result in a few
lingering showers and perhaps an isolated storm further into
North Texas behind the front, but showers and storms should
eventually come to an end across the area Sunday evening. Much
cooler temperatures should bring welcomed relief from the heat,
with highs only in the 70s and low 80s on Sunday.

A series of potent shortwaves will keep an active weather pattern
in place next week. Our first round of showers and storms will
arrive on Monday with another round possible Tuesday into
Wednesday. We`ll have to monitor the potential for heavy rain, as
column moisture may approach or exceed 2" in some areas. However,
given the current drought conditions, any rainfall should be
well-received. Otherwise, pleasant temperatures will stick around
through the first half of the week with highs in the 80s and low
temperatures in the 60s.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR with southerly winds 15G25KT will prevail through the period.
Any convection this evening will remain west of the major airports
with only passing high clouds expected. We`ll continue with a
brief TEMPO MVFR cig at Waco during the early morning hours, but
most lower cigs should remain east/southeast of the Metroplex
airports.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  97  73  96  73 /   0   5   0   5  30
Waco                71  96  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   5  30
Paris               70  91  71  91  71 /   0   5   0   5  30
Denton              71  96  72  95  71 /   0   0   0  10  30
McKinney            71  94  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   5  30
Dallas              73  97  73  95  74 /   0   5   0   5  30
Terrell             71  95  72  94  72 /   0   5   5   0  30
Corsicana           71  95  73  95  73 /   0   5   5   0  30
Temple              70  96  72  96  73 /   0   0   0   5  30
Mineral Wells       71 100  72 100  70 /   0   0   0  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$