761
FXUS64 KFWD 161824
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1224 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be about 15 degrees above normal on Friday
  followed by a sharp temperature drop on Saturday.

- Friday will be breezy with southwest winds of 15-25 mph and
  occasional gusts of 30-35 mph.

- An arctic cold front will result in a period of well below
  normal temperatures Saturday night through next week.

- There is a low chance (~30%) for light wintry precipitation
  across parts of Central and North Texas Monday night and
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Relatively tranquil weather is expected this afternoon with a high
pressure center building along the SE Texas Gulf Coast. This
afternoon should be mild with light west winds, partly sunny
skies, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Pretty strong height falls
will overspread the Rockies overnight and induce lee cyclogenesis
near the Panhandles. As the high slowly retreats east, a tight
pressure gradient will develop late tonight and tomorrow. South
flow will develop around sunset and start to slowly draw warm air
north tonight. A strong radiation inversion will keep the stronger
winds and advection above the surface in the pre-dawn hours, but
the stronger winds will mix down to the surface by mid-morning
tomorrow. After an initial "burst" of strong wind gusts between
9-10 am, wind speeds will settle between 15-25 mph with gusts of
30-35 mph late in the morning and continue through the afternoon.
These wind speeds are below our wind advisory criteria, so we do
not have plans to issue an advisory at this time.

Tomorrow will be warmer across the Big Country where a dryline
feature should nudge into the far western parts of our area late
in the day. We`re forecasting highs in the low to mid 70s for most
locations west of Mineral Wells, with lower temperatures (low to
mid 60s) further east. A big reason for the somewhat regulated
--as in similar to today despite the start of warm advection--
temperatures across the eastern parts of our forecast area is
expansive cloud cover being brought about by a quick-moving
shortwave trough. The trough and its associated mid-level ascent
will result in a dense cloud deck based around 10,000 ft that will
likely be precipitating. The precipitation will be falling into a
dry sub-cloud layer, so most of the precip will evaporate before
reaching the surface. We have capped PoPs at 10%, but kept the
forecast wording of "chance of sprinkles" for most of North Texas
tomorrow in the forecast.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 234 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025/
/Friday Night Onward/

An arctic front will surge south through all of North and Central
Texas Friday night, bringing much colder weather for the holiday
weekend into next week. Confidence is still high that dangerously
cold weather will be in place for multiple days beginning Saturday
night, with lows in the teens and 20s along with wind chills in
the single digits and teens. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely
be needed at some point starting sometime this weekend. It is
possible that temperatures do not climb above freezing in some
locations for a few days, particularly Monday and Tuesday
following a reinforcing shot of arctic air. On Monday for
instance, areas along and north of Highway 380 and along/west of
I-35 have the highest probability of max temperature at or below
32 (around 70-80%). Either way, high temperatures will remain in
the 30s areawide Sunday through Tuesday, which even for January
is 20 degrees below normal.

As important as all of that is, the more frequently asked
question focuses on winter precipitation probabilities and the
potential for travel impacts. Anytime North and Central Texas
becomes enveloped in an airmass this cold, even modest amounts of
available moisture can produce enough light precipitation to cause
impacts. The upper level feature of interest at this juncture
continues to be a positive-tilt shortwave, which is progged to
drop southeast around the southwest flank of a longwave trough
entrenched over the center of the CONUS at the start of next week.
Model guidance has been struggling with consistency regarding the
strength of the isentropic lift out ahead of the shortwave and
amount of available moisture. If the ascent is strong enough, the
upper level system typically can find enough moisture to produce
precip, and consequently higher moisture content can often
overcome weak lift. Due to a lack of any significant changes in
guidance since yesterday, will stick somewhat close to persistence
for this forecast package, indicating a chance of light snow along
with minor to no accumulations.

One thing to note is that last night`s National Blended Model has
increased POPs compared to previous runs, perhaps attributed to
slightly more aggressive (with QPF) ECMWF members. Will therefore
increase POPs slightly, and extend the slight chance POPs farther
north to near the Red River, both based on the latest NBM numbers.
That being said, due to the presence of such a dry airmass,
accumulations will be kept in the "minor to none" category for
now. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding QPF,
however, so the forecast could still shift to higher accumulations
(or none) depending on how the upstream shortwave evolves. Much
more will become known over the weekend when better resolution
model guidance comes into play. Whatever the case, temperatures
should finally start to modify during the latter half of next week
as the longwave trough weakens and shifts east. Temperatures may
even approach near-normal values by Thursday or Friday of next
week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and light west-southwest (270-240) winds are expected for the
remainder of the afternoon. The winds will become out of the S
(200-170) after 23Z and remain light for most of the evening. A
30-40 kt low level jet will develop after midnight and be at its
strongest between 09-16Z. Since the strongest winds will remain
above the surface, we are expecting low-end LLWS to develop across
the western half of our forecast area. A deeper analysis of the
wind data precludes including LLWS at DFW/DAL due to only about a
5-6 kt per 100 ft shear change, but we did include LLWS in the
smaller terminal TAF sites.

The stronger winds will mix to the surface by mid-morning
tomorrow, creating gusty SSW (200-180) flow tomorrow. As it
stands now, the crosswind at DAL and the DFW diagonal runways
should be between 15-20 kts, but if the winds come in slightly
more westerly and/or stronger, the diagonal runways may have
moderate to high crosswind (20-25 kts) issues.

A dense VFR ceiling will produce virga INVOF the D10 TAF sites
tomorrow morning and early in the afternoon. Some light sprinkles
are possible, but these shouldn`t cause much of an operational
impact.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  42  66  38  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
Waco                63  41  64  42  53 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               60  37  59  38  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
Denton              62  37  66  35  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
McKinney            62  38  63  37  48 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dallas              63  42  65  39  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
Terrell             62  38  63  40  50 /   0   0  10   0   0
Corsicana           63  42  65  43  52 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              64  40  65  42  54 /   0   0   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       64  37  74  35  47 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$