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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191143
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
643 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/
Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail through Saturday
morning, keeping conditions VFR at all North Texas TAF sites.

A northwest wind between 10 and 13 knots at sunrise will increase
a few hours later between 15 and 18 knots along with frequent
gusts between 25 and 30 knots. Wind speeds will slowly decrease
during the afternoon, falling below 10 knots after sunset. A light
west to southwest wind will setup overnight/Saturday morning once
a surface high pressure center moves southeast of the region.

79

&&


.SHORT TERM... /Issued 401 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/
/Today and Tonight/

Dry northwest flow aloft will remain in place today as a strong
low pressure system moves into the southeastern states. Overall,
it will be a sunny day across North and Central Texas with the
exception of a few lingering mid level clouds on the backside of
the departing system. A few sprinkles may graze the northeast
zones this morning, but the chances for measurable rainfall will
be slim. Otherwise, it will be cool today with highs ranging from
the middle 60s along the Red River to the lower 70s across
Central Texas. A tight pressure gradient and mixing of higher
momentum air through the boundary layer will result in a breezy
day with a northwest wind between 15 to 25 mph along with some
gusts in excess of 30 mph. Wind speeds will slowly decrease
through the afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight
once the boundary layer decouples and surface high pressure
settles over the state. The clear sky and light wind tonight will
promote efficient radiational cooling with lows generally in the
40s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 401 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/
/Saturday through Thursday/

The primary concern in the long-term portion of the forecast
centers on the evolution of a large positively-tilted trough over
the Southwest U.S. early next week. This system promises to deliver
another generous round of precipitation (and storms) to North
Central Texas.

The Easter weekend will feature terrific weather for outdoor
activities, as a robust mid-level shortwave ridge builds eastward
across the Southern Plains. Sunny skies and afternoon temperatures
in the 70s to lower 80s will prevail both Saturday and Sunday.

Monday will represent a transitional day weatherwise, as the
upper pattern transitions to a southwesterly flow regime ahead of
the deepening trough in Utah/Arizona. Upper level cloudiness will
begin overspreading the area by afternoon, while strong southerly
surface winds continue to transport low-level moisture northward
into the region. Will introduce low PoPs into the western zones
late Monday night as synoptic-scale forcing for ascent builds into
North Texas from the west.

Our region should be in the full throes of synoptic-scale forcing
for ascent by Tuesday afternoon/night, as the large positively-
tilted trough builds eastward into the Southern Rockies/Central
Plains. Concurrent with this upper level evolution, the GFS and
Euro are in good agreement in advertising surface cyclogenesis
over the State of Chihuahua Mexico by Tuesday afternoon, with an
inverted trough and pronounced thermal boundary extending
northeastward toward the Red River area of North Texas. Most of
our area will remain in the warm sector south of this boundary,
but the strong isentropic lift implied by this pattern should work
with the abundant moisture and unstable airmass to promote
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area by
late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Have leaned toward the higher
NBM PoPs for these periods, especially in the northern/western
zones, though it`s possible that these may be overdone if the
system doesn`t ultimately evolve as quickly as advertised.

Wednesday looks like a cloudy and rather wet day area-wide, as the
thermal boundary lingers in the area and strong isentropic lift
continues. Kept chance to likely PoPs just about everywhere for
Wednesday, with instability remaining sufficient to warrant
mention of thunderstorms in all areas.

The forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday becomes
increasingly uncertain, as the models vary in their handling of
both the upper level low and accompanying surface features. The
Euro is deeper and more progressive in its handling of the upper
low, depicting a closed system transiting steadily eastward
through our area by Thursday afternoon. The GFS is slower and
weaker with its solution to this feature. Leaned just a tad toward
the Euro this far out, and began trimming PoPs back to chance
categories from west to east by Thursday afternoon. It`s certainly
possible, however, that the cessation of this precipitation event
won`t ultimately occur as quickly as currently predicted.

While thunderstorms are a good bet through the middle portion of
next week, confidence in severe weather is not high at the moment.
While models depict a decent amount of CAPE Tue/Thurs, the overall
synoptic pattern is not one that normally generates a strong
severe weather signal. If anything, heavy rainfall and isolated
flooding may be a greater concern, given the presence of the
inverted surface trough over the area, and anomalously high PWs
during this period. Given that we`re rolling into the heart of our
severe weather season, it`s prudent to be prepared for any kind of
hazardous weather through the upcoming week.

Bradshaw

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  50  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  47  77  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               66  45  72  55  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              67  45  78  58  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  44  76  57  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              69  51  78  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             68  46  76  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  47  74  55  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              71  47  77  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  45  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

79/66