221
FXUS64 KFWD 231042
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms (15 to 30% chance) are possible each
  afternoon this week, mainly in Central and East Texas.

- A slow warming trend will take place mid to late week, with
  triple digit highs possible this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/
/Through Tuesday/

A stout upper ridge will remain anchored over the eastern CONUS
through the early portion of the workweek, placing North Texas
within southerly flow through the column. This will allow for
daily morning stratus intrusions into the CWA, along with
diurnally driven afternoon seabreeze convection from Southeast
Texas. While most areas will remain rain-free, there will be about
10-20% convective coverage the next couple of afternoons, mainly
east of I-35 and south of I-20. Otherwise, expect near normal
temperatures with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Dewpoints
will keep mixing out into the mid/upper 60s during the daytime,
which will limit max heat index values to around 102. South winds
of 10-15 mph will prevail with occasional higher daytime gusts.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

The dominant mid level ridge over the Ohio Valley will flatten and
expand west mid to late week, as the trough over the Desert
Southwest lifts northeast through the Plains. A gradual increase
of mid level heights will result in a slow warming trend across
North and Central Texas Wednesday through the weekend, with triple
digit high temperatures possible by Sunday. Rain chances will be
minimal and limited to seabreeze activity across Central and East
Texas. A subtle pattern shift associated with a shortwave trough
and a weak front may produce better and more widespread rain
chances around the early to middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

A north-south corridor of MVFR cigs at 1500-2000 kft is beginning
to fill in through parts of North and Central Texas as of 11z,
and will result in intermittent cigs at all TAF sites during the
next few hours. This will continue to be handled with Tempo
groups, as any reductions in flight category should tend to be
short-lived. VFR conditions will prevail by late morning with
south/southeast winds at 10-15 kts through the rest of the period.
All afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
remain southeast of the TAF sites. While there is a small chance
for additional MVFR cigs Tuesday morning, this potential is
currently too low to introduce into the TAFs.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  76  94  77  94 /  10   5   5   0   5
Waco                94  74  91  73  91 /  10  10  10   0  10
Paris               91  73  92  73  92 /   5   5  10   0   5
Denton              95  75  94  74  94 /   5   0   5   0   5
McKinney            94  75  93  76  93 /  10   5   5   0   5
Dallas              95  77  95  77  95 /  10   5   5   0   5
Terrell             92  74  91  74  92 /  10  10  10   0   5
Corsicana           92  74  90  76  93 /  20  10  20   0  10
Temple              94  73  91  72  92 /  10   5  10   0  10
Mineral Wells       94  73  93  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$