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000
FXUS64 KFWD 281048
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
548 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Sporadic showers have intermittently occurred over the past few
hours near and west of I-35, and this trend should continue
through much of the morning as broad but weak ascent overspreads
the forecast area. Greatest thunderstorm chances are still
expected during the afternoon, aided by diurnal destabilization.
Weak shear and modest instability will keep the potential for
strong storms rather low today. Uncertainty remains high regarding
any potential overnight complex which could affect the area early
Monday morning.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Monday/

As a downstream Rex blocking pattern slowly breaks down and shifts
east, so too will a southwest CONUS trough which will bring an end
to the Southern Plains shortwave ridging that`s been in place the
past few days. This will allow the persistent axis of
thunderstorm activity across portions of New Mexico and West
Texas to spread eastward today, as synoptic ascent associated with
gradual height falls begins to impinge on our forecast area. This
should allow for development of scattered showers and storms over
the next 12-18 hours which will not necessarily be diurnally
driven, although daytime destabilization should result in a
coverage maximum during the afternoon hours today. Due to weak
shear and a lack of any focusing boundaries, expect scattered and
disorganized convection which should struggle to become strong or
severe outside of a very isolated instance. Otherwise, increased
cloud cover should hold this afternoon`s highs near or below
seasonal normals in the low/mid 80s.

It`s uncertain as to whether a thunderstorm complex could become
established overnight into early Monday morning, but this will be
the next round of possible convection to scrutinize over the next
~18 hours. The aforementioned lack of flow/shear may inhibit
organization, but slightly strengthened inflow from the nocturnal
low-level jet may allow for a small complex to survive overnight
into Monday. This will then set the stage for additional shower
and thunderstorm activity later in the daytime, perhaps as a
result of residual boundaries or MCVs. Monday afternoon will
probably contain the highest rain chances of any portion of the
short term forecast period, simply due to the close proximity of
the slow-moving shortwave trough/weakness aloft which will be
juxtaposed with a PW axis approaching 1.7". Modest instability and
shear will once again maintain a very low severe threat, but
heavy downpours/localized flooding could be of concern, especially
with slow storm motions and the potential for training. While
some areas could see rainfall totals exceeding an inch during the
next 48 hours, others will miss out on rainfall entirely due to
the scattered coverage.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/
/Monday Night and Beyond/

The previously mentioned shortwave trough will continue to
progress east-southeast toward the Gulf of Mexico Monday night
into Tuesday. The resulting northerly mid-level flow will pull a
drier airmass over locations along/west of I-35 constraining
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday to our
eastern and southeastern zones where a high PWAT airmass will
remain in place. A mid-level ridge is expected to build in the lee
of the Rockies behind this system suppressing rain chances across
the area and keeping North and Central Texas mostly dry Wednesday
and Thursday. One exception could be a couple isolated showers
and thunderstorms across our far northeastern zones Wednesday as
weak impulses in the north-northwesterly flow aloft interact with
deeper moisture.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop across portions of
the Texas Panhandle late Thursday in response to a subtle
shortwave ejecting into the Plains ahead of an upper-level low
spinning about the Desert Southwest. This thunderstorm complex may
make a run for our far northwestern zones Thursday night into
early Friday, but should largely remain west and northwest of our
forecast area. More widespread rain chances return to the forecast
Friday into the weekend as the synoptic pattern remains rather
progressive and a series of shortwaves in the west-southwesterly
flow aloft enter the Southern Plains. The best chances (40-60%)
for an additional half-inch of rainfall Friday through the
weekend will reside generally along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Otherwise, expect afternoon highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and
overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s through the week. Heat
indices may approach the mid 90s toward the end of the week
across portions of North and Central Texas.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

Convective chances at the airports will increase later today,
perhaps preceded by a few rain showers through mid or late morning.
The main window for possible TSRA impacts at the TAF sites is
20-01z, but due to the expected scattered coverage, TS activity
immediately at the terminals themselves is rather uncertain.
There is a small chance for a complex of storms to affect parts of
North Texas during the overnight and early Monday time period, but
will keep an optimistically dry TAF during this time frame for
now with this being a low potential. Otherwise, a southeast wind
will prevail with VFR skies, although mid/high BKN/OVC cloud decks
can be expected through most of the period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  69  82  67  86 /  40  40  50  20  20
Waco                83  67  83  65  84 /  30  40  40  20  20
Paris               84  65  83  64  84 /   5  20  40  10  30
Denton              84  65  81  63  85 /  40  40  50  20  20
McKinney            85  66  80  64  84 /  20  30  50  10  30
Dallas              86  70  84  67  87 /  30  40  50  20  30
Terrell             86  66  82  65  84 /  20  30  50  10  30
Corsicana           86  68  83  67  85 /  30  30  40  20  30
Temple              84  65  83  64  84 /  30  40  30  20  20
Mineral Wells       81  64  80  63  84 /  60  50  50  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$