


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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221 FXUS64 KFWD 231042 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 542 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms (15 to 30% chance) are possible each afternoon this week, mainly in Central and East Texas. - A slow warming trend will take place mid to late week, with triple digit highs possible this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ /Through Tuesday/ A stout upper ridge will remain anchored over the eastern CONUS through the early portion of the workweek, placing North Texas within southerly flow through the column. This will allow for daily morning stratus intrusions into the CWA, along with diurnally driven afternoon seabreeze convection from Southeast Texas. While most areas will remain rain-free, there will be about 10-20% convective coverage the next couple of afternoons, mainly east of I-35 and south of I-20. Otherwise, expect near normal temperatures with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Dewpoints will keep mixing out into the mid/upper 60s during the daytime, which will limit max heat index values to around 102. South winds of 10-15 mph will prevail with occasional higher daytime gusts. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 313 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ The dominant mid level ridge over the Ohio Valley will flatten and expand west mid to late week, as the trough over the Desert Southwest lifts northeast through the Plains. A gradual increase of mid level heights will result in a slow warming trend across North and Central Texas Wednesday through the weekend, with triple digit high temperatures possible by Sunday. Rain chances will be minimal and limited to seabreeze activity across Central and East Texas. A subtle pattern shift associated with a shortwave trough and a weak front may produce better and more widespread rain chances around the early to middle part of next week. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ A north-south corridor of MVFR cigs at 1500-2000 kft is beginning to fill in through parts of North and Central Texas as of 11z, and will result in intermittent cigs at all TAF sites during the next few hours. This will continue to be handled with Tempo groups, as any reductions in flight category should tend to be short-lived. VFR conditions will prevail by late morning with south/southeast winds at 10-15 kts through the rest of the period. All afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to remain southeast of the TAF sites. While there is a small chance for additional MVFR cigs Tuesday morning, this potential is currently too low to introduce into the TAFs. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 76 94 77 94 / 10 5 5 0 5 Waco 94 74 91 73 91 / 10 10 10 0 10 Paris 91 73 92 73 92 / 5 5 10 0 5 Denton 95 75 94 74 94 / 5 0 5 0 5 McKinney 94 75 93 76 93 / 10 5 5 0 5 Dallas 95 77 95 77 95 / 10 5 5 0 5 Terrell 92 74 91 74 92 / 10 10 10 0 5 Corsicana 92 74 90 76 93 / 20 10 20 0 10 Temple 94 73 91 72 92 / 10 5 10 0 10 Mineral Wells 94 73 93 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$