Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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540
FXUS64 KFWD 150520
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

A sprawling mid-level ridge remains over much of the
western/central CONUS, which will keep hot weather in the forecast
for the short-term period. 00Z 500 mb analysis revealed a 598 dam
high centered over the Four Corners Region, with RAOB sites at
Flagstaff and Albuquerque indicating near record-high 500 mb
heights. This mid-level high reaches from the Northern Rockies to
the western Gulf Coast, leading to brutal heat for much of these
areas, particularly across the Southwest. Closer to home, DFW got
close to 100 F today, with observed high temperatures
"overperforming" the NBM guidance. This is likely attributable to
two factors. First, the anomalously high 500 mb heights (not quite
to near record levels here, but still high) represent something
of a "tail event". Such events are sometimes not captured well by
the NBM. Secondly, the NBM`s bias correction may still be
influenced by the relatively cooler temperatures we had during the
first week or so of June. Given these reasons, and the fact that
it looks like the synoptic pattern will be unchanged through the
short-term period, opted to go above NBM for high temperatures.
Officially, a high temperature of 98 F is being forecast at DFW,
and 96 F at Waco, which is similar to what was observed on Monday.
Heat index values may not be quite as extreme as they were on
Monday however, as deep boundary layer mixing should allow for the
higher dewpoints to mix out during the afternoon. NBM/NAM
guidance indicates dewpoints falling into the mid 60s during the
afternoon, which while still humid, should allow maximum heat
index values to remain below advisory criteria (105 F).

Otherwise, expecting a largely rain-free forecast, with only a
slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the
afternoon. The mid-level ridge should crush any attempts at
convection, though in our far southeastern counties, a few
seabreeze-driven showers/thunderstorms may be able to sneak into
the CWA. These would likely be short-lived, with the main threats
being brief downpours, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and
gusty winds.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 14 2021/
/Wednesday Onward/

The well amplified upper ridge across the Four Corners region
will continue to influence the sensible weather across North and
Central Texas. Although the main upper level circulation will
remain well west of our region, upper heights are expected to
increase slightly the latter half of the work week. With
increasing heights and no major sources of lift moving across the
region, precipitation is not expected anywhere across the region
through Friday. Highs are likely to climb into the mid to upper
90s each day, likely pushing heat index values to or slightly
above the triple digit mark.

As we move into the weekend, a tropical disturbance is expected
to become organized and migrate northward into far southeast Texas
or Louisiana. There remains too much uncertainty at this time
regarding the evolution of this system, but it`s possible a few
showers or storms impact Central Texas east of I-35 this weekend.
The rest of the region will remain dry, with continued hot
temperatures in place.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. A few diurnal Cu may
develop around 060-080 during the heat of the day, but otherwise,
skies should be nearly SKC. Winds will be light and from the NE,
gradually veering out of the SE after 00Z. A few very isolated
SHRA/TSRA may form over far southeastern portions of the forecast
area, but these should be very sparse (if at all) with no
operational impacts expected at any TAF sites.

Godwin

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  98  74  97  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  96  72  95  73 /  10   5   0   0   0
Paris               71  96  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              73  98  69  95  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            73  98  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  98  76  97  77 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             73  99  71  94  73 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  96  73  96  74 /   5   5   0   0   0
Temple              74  96  71  95  72 /  10  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  95  69  95  71 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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