Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191050
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Extensive cloud cover prevails across North and Central Texas this
morning with the cold front extending from Temple to Corsicana to
Paris. The front will continue to make slow eastward progress
through the morning. Behind the front, temperatures have fallen
into the 40s and 50s. Clouds will likely linger for much of the
day with some scattering across our eastern and northeastern areas
later this afternoon. Areas northwest of the Metroplex may remain
in the upper 50s all afternoon, while areas across our southeast
may top out in the mid 70s.

We`ve added a low chance for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
overnight tonight as strong low level warm advection commences.
Areas along and north of I-20 will have about a 20% chance for
showers/storms overnight. Otherwise, no significant changes to the
forecast were made at this time.

Dunn

&&

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Tuesday/

The cold front continues to make southward progress through North
Texas late this evening and is located along a line from near
Hamilton to Dallas to Sherman. Temperatures have fallen into the
upper 40s and lower 50s behind the front with breezy north winds.
Ahead of the front, temperatures are still in the mid 70s.
Extensive low cloud cover is starting to spread southward behind
the front and should overtake much of the region by early Monday
morning. The front will slow down some later tonight and will
likely get hung up somewhere across our far southeastern counties
by morning. Outside of a low chance for an isolated shower or two,
most areas will stay dry overnight.

Given the shallow nature of the front, the main concern for Monday
will be the temperature forecast as some areas will struggle to
get out of the 50s and others may approach 80 degrees. There is
likely to be a rather sharp temperature gradient across the
southern half of the CWA by Monday afternoon. It is appearing more
likely that areas from the Metroplex north and west will remain
socked in with low cloud cover for much of the day and this should
hold temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s. Increasing southwest
flow above the shallow colder air will work to modify the airmass
and erode cloud cover. If some peeks of sun can develop then
temperatures should respond upward. If clouds hold in all day
before the sun sets, then the potential for fog and drizzle will
increase, particularly northwest of the Metroplex. We`ll continue
to mention patchy fog and drizzle in these areas overnight Monday
night. Otherwise, increasing low level warm moist advection will
lead to extensive cloud cover Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures may actually climb a few degrees overnight Monday
night.

Tuesday should feature decreasing cloudiness by afternoon as
southerly flow becomes well established. Temperatures will quickly
rebound back into the low/mid 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 331 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020/
/Wednesday onward/

Wednesday and Thursday will see continued above normal
temperatures as deep southerly flow persists over the region. This
southerly flow will be the result of surface pressure falls along
the lee of the Rocky Mountains. Precipitation chances will be slim
to none during this timeframe.

By Friday, an amplifying upper-level trough will push a strong
cold front across the region. Global models are coming into better
agreement with respect to the timing of this cold front. The cold
front looks to enter our northwestern counties some time Friday
morning after daybreak before reaching the Dallas/Fort Worth
Metropolitan Area during the early afternoon, and Central Texas by
late afternoon. Temperatures will plummet behind this cold front,
so it is likely that locations north of a line from Stephenville
to Fort Worth to Paris will see their high temperatures occur
during the morning or early afternoon. There will be a chance for
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front, with the
greatest chances expected to be towards the east where moisture
depth will be a little better. Area-averaged rainfall
accumulations will be light however -- generally less than one-
tenth of an inch. Look for cool temperatures Friday night, with
areas north and west of DFW falling into the 40s, and everyone
else falling into the lower 50s.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend, with
highs remaining in the 60s across North Texas on Saturday and in
the lower 70s in Central Texas. On Sunday, almost everyone should
climb back into the 70s.

Early next week is when things will get fun. The GFS and ECMWF are
in good agreement that a rather strong cold front will blast
across the region on Monday, ushering in what could very well be
the coldest temperatures yet this fall. The NBM shows the entirety
of the CWA falling into the 40s by Monday night, with some
locations north and west of DFW falling into the 30s. If the GFS
is to be believed, a light freeze north and west of Fort Worth
would not be completely out of the question, but we will not go
that cold in the grids just yet. There will also be a chance for
showers and thunderstorms with this cold front, and while it could
produce a little more rainfall than the Friday cold front,
amounts still look far too low to put a meaningful dent in any
drought conditions. The bottom line for early next week is that
confidence is increasing in the likelihood of below normal
temperatures, and perhaps MUCH below normal temperatures. We are
probably not looking at a widespread freeze, but this upcoming
week would not be a bad time to start thinking about colder
weather, and what you need to do to prepare as we head into the
cold season and cold air outbreaks become more likely.

Godwin

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Widespread MVFR cigs are now in place at all airports and this
will continue through the morning hours. The cold front has
cleared all of the major airports and is located along a line from
Temple to Corsicana to Paris. Some improvement in cigs is expected
later this afternoon and there may be a brief period of VFR
conditions into the early evening hours. Expect a quick return to
MVFR after sunset with perhaps some areas of fog/drizzle
developing north and west of the major Metroplex airports late
tonight. Conditions will improve during the day on Tuesday.
Northwest winds will prevail today, becoming easterly this
evening, then southerly overnight and on Tuesday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  65  82  67  84 /   0  20   5   0   0
Waco                70  66  84  68  86 /   5   5   5   0   5
Paris               65  60  80  64  83 /   5  20  10   0   5
Denton              62  60  83  65  85 /   0  20   5   0   0
McKinney            62  61  82  65  84 /   0  20  10   0   0
Dallas              66  66  84  68  86 /   0  20  10   0   0
Terrell             66  63  82  65  85 /   5  20   5   0   0
Corsicana           71  67  84  68  86 /  10   5   5   0   5
Temple              75  66  84  66  86 /   5   5  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       60  60  84  64  86 /   0  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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