Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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568 FXUS64 KHUN 232036 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 336 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Another thunderstorm complex has reached the area as of the early afternoon. Except for convection that formed north of Huntsville, and now over northeast Jackson County, most of a formerly more expansive area of convection from the complex has faded. Early afternoon temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 80s with southerly winds of 5-15 mph. For this evening, not so good confidence regarding rain chances. The models all have various solutions on this. But in this conditionally unstable environment, have not totally removed rain chances for the overnight. But given the track of recent showers, have the higher chances more to the north, with it dry over our SE areas for a few hours this evening. Another upper system to our west will head eastward, and bring more rain chances for the predawn into Friday morning. Otherwise a muggy late May night with lows in the mid/upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 An unsettled weather pattern will continue as we go into the Memorial Day weekend. A southerly lower level flow and passing upper level systems from the west will keep chances of more showers and thunderstorms continuing. With minimal large scale forcing, coverage of this activity is expected to occur on a diurnal basis (with better chances in the afternoon and evening). Going more with blended output, an upper system approaching the area should bring scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms forming late tonight, and continuing into Fri afternoon. With more clouds than sun, high temperatures to close out the workweek should warm into the lower 80s. More of a diurnal trend is expected over the weekend, with mainly afternoon convection. Highs on Saturday should warm into the mid/upper 80s, and in the upper 80s/near 90 on Sunday. Because of the warmth and resultant instability (CAPES rising into the 1000 to +2000 J/kg and mainly weak shear), some of the storms could become strong to severe in intensity, with strong to damaging wind gusts the main threat. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 441 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A stronger synoptic storm system moving from the eastern Plains to the Great Lakes will bring another round of more organized convection Sunday and into Sunday night. Model trends seemed to take a more northern track with the parent low. But it will be close enough, to bring a risk of severe storms to the Tennessee Valley. Most of the area is within a Slight Risk for severe weather on the Storm Prediction Center Day-4 forecast. A strong cold front is forecast to move across the area Sunday night. Very steep lapse rates, strong shear, high DCAPE values, and strong instability (3000 to 4000 J/KG) will provide the impetus for a MCS that develops along this front as it pushes into and through the area overnight into Monday morning. Saturated soils by then could produce a more enhanced threat for flash flooding or river flooding from this rainfall. Models differ on how quickly this system pushes through the area though, so activity cloud linger into the afternoon on Monday. However, the atmosphere will likely be worked over from earlier convection earlier in the day, so severe weather should not be much of an issue if that occurs. Finally northwest flow aloft and dry weather builds back into the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs will drop back into the upper 70s to lower 80s again thankfully with lows dropping back into the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 A thunderstorm complex approaching NW AL was bringing light showers towards KMSL as of this writing, with other activity forming near KHSV. Due to daytime heating before helping to produce a more unstable environment, conditions will be favorable for thunderstorms to impact the terminals this afternoon. Shower activity should wane in the late afternoon and this evening. Another disturbance shown by some models could impact the area after daybreak Fri, with more showers/storms in the morning. Was confident enough to add this mention, though it is late in the TAF. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....KTW/RSB AVIATION...RSB