Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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413
FXUS64 KHUN 031819
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1219 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

As the deep upper level trough across the Southern Plains slowly
shifts eastward tonight, it will begin to push the upper level
ridge over the Southeast off to the east. A noticeable increase
in cloud cover is expected for the Tennessee Valley later tonight
that originated from storms along the trough axis. As low
pressure continues to deepen over the Plains, expect gradient
winds to remain elevated through the night with gusts 20-25 mph
with some 30 mph gusts in the higher terrain in Northeast
Alabama. The combination of cloud cover and winds keep
temperatures overnight mild with lows only in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Another warm and dry day is forecast to start the upcoming work
week as the upper level ridge still remains locked across the
Southeast. Gusty gradient winds continue during the morning, but
a gradual decrease by the afternoon is forecast due to the surface
low over the Southern Plains ejecting northeastward. This will
reduce the pressure gradient and therefore, diminish the strong
wind gusts. Afternoon highs on Monday rise once again into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

As a low pressure system moves northeastward from the Plains into
the Midwest, a cold front positioned to its south will move into
the forecast area on Tuesday. Latest guidance suggests the arrival
of showers and storms to be during the second half of the day
Tuesday. However, the front stalls near the forecast area and
weakens as it pushes eastward, therefore only low chances (20-40%)
for precip east of I-65 with medium chances (40-60%) west. With
the lack of strong forcing and instability no severe storms are
forecast at this time. Despite abundant cloud cover, temperatures
remain mild on Tuesday with afternoon highs in the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

An amplified upper level pattern continued across the Lower-48.
Large scale troughing was in place over the west/central CONUS, while
an upper high was located east of the SE states. This was placing the
forecast area in a SW-NE upper level flow. Through the rest of the
work week, this pattern will remain in place, as an upper low forms
over the southern portions of the trough (Desert SW). The trough
should flatten somewhat as we go into the next weekend, as the upper
low moves NE across the Central Rockies and nearby High Plains.

At the surface, a storm system that is currently forming across the
southern Great Basin and Intermountain West, will move across the
Divide on Monday, and be situated over the northern Great Lakes by
Wednesday morning. A cold front extending south of this low will
remain west of this area Wed/Thu, before it moves in a north to
south manner across the area early Friday. With a good feed of
moisture flow over this region from the Gulf of Mexico, east of the
front will help keep chances of showers and thunderstorms going
Wednesday. Thunderstorm intensity Wed should remain on the General
side, given CAPES of 50-300 J/kg and SRH values under 100 m/s. Better
chances for storms will be more to our north and west Wed.

The possible development of a tropical system also continues
somewhere over the Gulf region in the extended period. The models
were showing similar trends to a day ago, with the Canadian the
furthest east over FL/GA/SC, the GFS more closer but off-shore, and
the ECMWF more towards the western Gulf. The ensembles of these
models seemed to more follow the more eastern Canadian solution, with
the heaviest rainfall potential mainly to our east. Later model runs
should better show which trend will come to pass.

Despite clouds and chances of showers each day, a warm advection
pattern along with sun that breaks through should result in high
temperatures in the mid 70s to around 80 for the Wed-Fri timeframe.
It should be somewhat cooler Saturday, in the mid 70s. Low
temperatures Wed/Thu night should range in the low/mid 60s, and 55-60
by Fri night. For reference, average high/low temperatures by Sat,
Nov 9th are around 66/43.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period.
Main concern today is the gusty southeasterly winds with gusts to
25 knots possible. These will continue through the remainder of
the forecast given a tightening pressure gradient. Some mid level
clouds enter in from the west by tomorrow morning, but should
remain above 4000 ft.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...GH