Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 011148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
548 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

For 12Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Cold front continues to gradually move SE thru west TN/NW MS, as a
pre-frontal trough axis sweeps ewd thru east TN into NE AL. Ahead of
the front and along the sfc trough axis, a broken/weakening line of
showers/tstms was exiting NE AL to the east, as lingering light/mod
rainfall stretched back to the west closer to the front. As the front
continues to settle into the area, rainfall will continue along/just
ahead of the front into the morning hrs, before gradually tapering
off to the east late in the morning, as the front moves just to the
SE of the cntrl TN Valley. Rainfall totals have been fairly light
thus far, with amounts ranging from 0.5-1.0 inch for most spots. With
perhaps another 0.25-0.50 inch possible into the morning period with
the oncoming front, a low end threat for some localized flooding may
still be in place and the Flash Flood Watch will be maintained for
now. The threat for more widespread flooding though is diminishing.

With rainfall tapering off, cloudy skies look to persist thru the
afternoon hrs, as a NW flow regime turns more to the WNW. Cooler air
will also begin to spread into the area from the NNW in the wake of
the frontal passage, as afternoon highs trend more in the mid/upper
50s for most locations.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

A sfc wave will then begin to take shape along the wrn fringe of the
frontal boundary dropping further to the south over the west Gulf
Coast tonight, as an upper low/trough axis rotates ewd into the srn
Plains states. The latest model suites have the sfc low traversing
ENE across the cntrl/ern Gulf Coast Tue/Tue night, while the upper
low/trough pattern lifts NE into the mid TN Valley. A quick surge of
moisture is expected to spread NE into much of the region along/just
ahead of the upper trough axis during the day Tue. Rainfall/showers
will continue into Tue evening as the upper low moves into the area
before tapering off to the east late Tue night, as the upper trough
begins to move east of the area. Brief periods of heavy rainfall are
possible with this next batch of rainfall, although total rainfall
amounts Tue/Tue night only look to be in the 0.5-1.0 inch range, with
perhaps some locally higher amounts. While this may translate into
some minor flooding concerns, more widespread flooding issues are not
expected with this next system.

Rainfall looks to be quickly exiting NE AL to the east Wed morning,
as high pressure out of the mid/srn Plains begins to build ewd into
much of the SE region. Following seasonably cool temps on Tue, with
lows in the mid/upper 30s and afternoon highs in the mid 50s, temps
look to gradually increase heading into mid week, as cloud cover
diminishes. Lows early Wed look to trend more in the upper 30s/near
40F, before temps rebound into the upper 50s/near 60F later in the
day. The quiet wx pattern continues into Wed night, as the sfc high
settles more into the region, with lows again in the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

On a large scale, a deep upper level low over eastern Canada has
placed the eastern lower-48 in a WNW flow. Another weakening upper
low over the 4-corners region will advance eastward, then ESE during
the latter half of the week, helping to fortify troughing over the
east. A more southern track of the upper low should keep showers
associated with it south of the Tennessee Valley into the weekend.

Thus a drier and cooler trend is expected for the extended period.
Thursday should feature sunny skies with high temperatures trending a
tad above seasonable norms (upper 50s to lower 60s). A reinforcing
shot of cooler air will move over the region, as a dry cold front
moves southward across the area early Friday. Cooler air north of the
front, and clouds from the system nearing from the west will make for
a cooler day Friday, with highs in the upper 50s. Clouds should
decrease for the weekend, but a cooler than average trend will
continue, with highs remaining in the upper 50s Sat/Sun. Lows for
Thu/Fri nights should range in the mid 30s, and lower 30s Sat night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Cold front is beginning to cross ewd into NW AL this early Mon
morning, with ra/shra continuing along/ahead of the oncoming front.
MVFR cigs/vis are occurring in a slightly more enhanced band of shra
just ahead of the front near the KMSL airport. This band of ra/shra
will gradually move east closer to KHSV in the 14-16Z time frame,
with MVFR conds possible in some of the heavier precip. Rainfall will
then begin to taper off heading into the afternoon hrs, as the front
moves SE of the area. MVFR cigs will also begin to lift/sct late this
afternoon. Sfc winds will remain out of the north near 10kt with
higher gusts for much of the day.


AL...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for ALZ001>007-009.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until noon CST today for TNZ076-096-097.




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