Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 211714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For 18Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 953 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

High pressure continues to be in place across the area today. Temperatures
are currently on track with yesterdays trends at 9 AM. However, we are
expecting very little cloud cover today. Guidance forecasts 925 mb
temperatures a degree or two higher this afternoon as well. Therefore
tweaked highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s in most locations this
afternoon. Much lighter winds than yesterday are expected today.
Winds should be primarily around 5 mph. Dewpoints look to drop into
the lower to mid 50s late this afternoon with mixing. This will drop
relative humidity values to between 29 and 35 percent in many areas.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The warm and dry pattern will continue Sunday as high pressure
remains anchored aloft. Expect similar conditions with highs near 90
degrees under mostly clear skies. Low temps will warm back into the
middle to upper 60s late Sunday and early Monday morning as better
moisture starts to filter in ahead of a cold front. The upper ridge
will be suppressed by a low pressure system tracking east over the
Great Lakes region on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will track
southeast through the Ozark and OH Valley regions Monday resulting
in showers and thunderstorms to our north. For now, it does not
appear that we will see any beneficial rains from this system as it
looks pretty benign by the time it reaches the TN Valley. Have
maintained low chance PoPs Monday afternoon in NW AL, but even this
might be a bit on the optimistic side. With all of that said, it
comes as no surprise that we will kick off the fall season with
temperatures 6-8 degrees above normal for late September.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

A troughing west/ridging east upper level pattern currently in place
over the greater CONUS, will flatten somewhat by the start the new
work week. A storm system currently over the northern Rockies will
move towards the northern Great Lakes by late Monday, while another
moving towards the Pacific NW develops a deeper low over the lower
Colorado River Valley. A frontal boundary trailing from the SE
Canadian low should be moving across the area at the start of this
period. Will continue isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm
chances for Monday night. As has been the case the past few days,
the models all have precip diminishing as the front itself becomes
more diffuse.

With the frontal passage, a tad "cooler" for first full day of autumn
(which began 250 AM Monday) should range in the mid 80s. Normal
high/low temperatures for Tuesday are around 82/59. As has been the
case recently, the upper ridge during the mid week, although
suppressed to the south, it will begin rebuilding to the north
towards the next upcoming weekend, continuing unseasonably warm
weather for the last full week of September. Unfortunately this
abnormally dry pattern will continue, with no real rain chances noted
for the remainder of next week. The GFS/Canadian/ECMWF all bring
back a trough west/ridge east upper air pattern to start October.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.





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