Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 240531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1231 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

For 06Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 832 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Precipitation has come to an end across the area. Low level cloud
cover remains blanketed across the Tennessee Valley. This area of
stratus extends westward to near the Mississippi River. Winds
should continue to weaken during the overnight hours. The ground
and low-levels are moist from the recent widespread rainfall but
expect the stratus deck will linger into the early morning hours.
Due to this, cut back the extent of the fog somewhat in the
forecast. However, still expect patchy fog will be possible late
tonight. Overnight lows will be a bit on the cooler side with
light northeasterly winds. Lows will drop down into the upper 50s
to low 60s for most locations.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Latest model guidance suggests that central Gulf Coast convection
mentioned in the near term discussion should progress northward
tomorrow in conjunction with the surface warm front and another weak
mid-level wave that will begin to accelerate northeastward as an
amplifying shortwave trough shifts eastward across the central High
Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the
TN Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours, and although
this activity will be occurring within an environment of increasing
instability and shear, parameters at this point indicate nothing more
than a threat for brief strong wind gusts with most intense cells.

During the period from Tuesday night-Thursday, the central High
Plains shortwave trough will track slowly eastward across the Great
Plains and into Mid-MS Valley, becoming more amplified with time and
perhaps taking on a slight negative-tilt orientation. Mid-level
southwesterly flow across our region will begin to increase on
Wednesday, with deep-layer shear expected to become marginally
favorable for storm organization (25-30 knots) by afternoon, as a
strongly-forced band of convection associated with a surface trough
axis begins to approach the region from the west. Depending on the
coverage of clouds and precipitation early in the day (which both
appear to be low at this point), surface dewpoints in the mid 60s-
around 70F and temps in the l-m 80s could support MLCAPE of 2000-3000
J/kg which would result in risk for strong-severe thunderstorms.
Both synoptic scale lift and deep-layer shear will increase across
the region from Wednesday night-Thursday morning, when either a
secondary band or several broken clusters of convection will shift
eastward into the region ahead of another prefrontal surface trough.
This activity may also be strong-severe in nature, especially with a
35-45 knot low-level jet in place across the region, but instability
remains questionable due to the unfavorable time of day and potential
for widespread convective overturning.

Although it still appears as if the synoptic cold front will shift
across the region during the afternoon hours on Thursday, it is
important to mention that recent trends in model guidance have
trended toward the development of a cutoff low across the Mid-MS
Valley, which would slow the forward progression of the front. If
this trend continues and the front dosen`t clear our eastern zones
until late Thursday evening, then the risk for thunderstorms may need
to be extended in these areas through at least 6Z Friday. Given the
dynamic nature of this system, it also seems reasonable to believe
that clouds and light showers will persist across the region in the
wake of the cold front as temps fall into the u50s-l60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Clouds and at least isolated light showers may continue across the
region on Friday, before impacts from the closed upper low discussed
above end on Friday evening as the opening trough ejects
northeastward and away from the region. Dry northwest flow aloft in
the wake of this system will persist early in the weekend, with highs
on Saturday expected to warm into the u70s-l80s under abundant
sunshine. A mid-level ridge will begin to expand across the TN Valley
from the southwest by the end of the extended period, with highs
returning to the mid 80s-around 90 by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue May 24 2022

MVFR conditions due to low ceilings around 1 to 1.5 kft continue to
prevail early Tuesday morning. A brief period of visibility reduction
to IFR conditions may be possible around daybreak due to some light
fog development. Expect some gradual improvements during the morning
hours and a return VFR conditions during the afternoon. Late in the
period, showers and storms will be possible as a front approaches the
area from the west and lower cloud cover builds back in.





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