173
FXUS64 KHUN 250013
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
713 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A convective complex that earlier brought measurable rainfall
across most of the Tennessee Valley into the early afternoon was
fading as remnant showers headed to the ENE. Rainfall amounts
from the complex ranged from a few hundreths of an inch, to around
an inch over parts of NW Alabama. Because of earlier extensive
cloud cover, mid afternoon temperatures were only in the low/mid
70s. There were more breaks in the cloud deck with the departure
of showers. Thus temperatures may creep up a few more degrees
before the late afternoon and top out in the upper 70s and lower
80s.

From the late afternoon into the evening, there is a slim chance
that more showers/thunderstorms could form in a still unstable
environment. But odds of that remain on the low side. But what is
more eye catching is an area of convection firing over the IA-MO-
IL region. This activity per short term guidance should blossom
this evening while heading to the SE. Per timing from the HRRR,
RAP, ARW, NAM, has these showers moving in from the NW, reaching
our NW and maybe Tennessee counties before daybreak Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This convection should fade in intensity a few hours after sunrise
as it moves to the SE. The rest of the day Sat for the most part
looks to be dry. That said, this area is in a conditionally
unstable environment, with daytime heating and steeper lapse
rates making a regeneration of afternoon showers and storms not a
zero chance. Staying with a dry forecast, muggy conditions are
expected to close out the week with highs rising into the
mid/upper 80s, and lows that night in the mid/upper 60s. Sunday
should be even warmer with highs topping out around 90, with
marginal shower and thunderstorm development possible.

Things look to change more dramatically Sunday night, as a system
now moving across central California heads rapidly to the east.
This system as it traverses the CONUS will help develop a synoptic
low near the Front Range on Sat, with this low moving to the Great
Lakes. As it nears the Great Lakes on Mon, it will bring a cold
front towards this area. Lift occurring east of this boundary and
our region in an unstable environment will be favorable for the
development of more organized convection.

A few items to note with this system. It appears to be taking a
more northward track per successive runs and was a bit slower. IF
this trend continues, it would help lower an overall severe
threat. A Slight Risk that this area is delineated in the Day-3
outlook has shifted a bit to the north. Also a greater distance
from the parent low would help in this regard. Despite those
items, the timing of the strongest forcing will be in the late
night into Monday morning. CAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg and
helicity values from 100-200 m/s and deep shear in the 40-55kt
would support all modes of severe weather, with damaging wind
gusts the main threat. A chance of showers and storms should
continue into Monday, as the main front finally moves in a NW-SE
manner across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

A broader troughing pattern sets up Monday night for the eastern
CONUS and will persist through the remainder of next week. While
our next chance at storms is a lower end potential on Wednesday,
the pattern overall looks to be drier with temperatures closer to
daily average values in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are currently observed at the terminals, featuring
sct mid/high-lvl clouds and a SSE flow of 5-10 kts. Although we
will be monitoring convective trends across northern MS for
potential impacts later this evening at MSL, present indications
are that small clusters of storms to the south of Memphis should
progress southeastward and weaken btwn 0-3Z. Light BR/FG may also
develop in a few locations later this evening (if winds diminish
sufficiently and skies remain partially clear), but we have not
included vsby reductions in the TAFs (due to fog) at this point.
During the early morning hours, storms currently in progress
across eastern MO/western IL are predicted to grow into a forward
propagating MCS that should track southeastward through northern
AL in the hours around sunrise. Due to increasing confidence in
this scenario, we have introduced PROB30 groups for MVFR cigs/vsby
at MSL/9-14Z and HSV/10-15Z. VFR conditions will return late
Saturday morning, with the caveat that additional but more
isolated afternoon TSRA may redevelop across the region invof a
differential heating boundary in the wake of the morning MCS.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...70/DD