Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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775 FXUS64 KHUN 100515 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1215 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 928 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Deep convection has formed along a front across central Alabama and is gradually shifting ESE along and south of the I-20 corridor. Closer to home, thankfully, more tranquil weather conditions are in place as a drier air mass settles in, keeping us free of storms. Dense cloud cover in the form of blow-off cirrus remains across northeast Alabama, with mostly clear conditions prevailing in the west. Once convection wanes to out south, clouds should gradually disperse, especially in the 09-12z window. With winds shifting to the north, temperatures will run cooler than last night, eventually dropping into the lower 60s in most locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 However, there may be wind for very low (20 to 30 percent) chances of shower and thunderstorm development south of the Tennessee River tonight (mainly in the evening), as this front pushes through the area. Particularly, in Franklin southeast into Cullman counties in Alabama. Not seeing much helicity forecast by models, but moderate to high CAPE values (1000 to 2500 J/KG) and steep lapse rates (6.5 to 8.0 degrees/km) are forecast by most models with decent DCAPE around 1000 J/KG. So a severe thunderstorm or two producing damaging winds or large hail cannot be ruled out. Not expecting any watches due to mainly isolated coverage of thunderstorm activity expected. Some cloud cover is expected this evening with this activity before cloud should dissipate. Clear skies and light winds are expected and should enable lows to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Expect some patchy fog could occur with decent radiational cooling late. A need dry and quiet weather pattern establishes itself Friday through the weekend. Some cooler buy very pleasant conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday. Highs will drop a bit into the mid to upper 70s with lows dropping into the upper 40s and 50s. Sunday looks a bit warmer, as upper level ridging builds back over the Tennessee Valley. Highs should climb back to around 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A partially closed upr low in the West CONUS will be ejected eastward as heights begin to fall in the northern Rockies from late Sunday night into Monday. Moisture advection/ascent ahead of the pending upr trough could begin to bring rain to the area as early as Monday morning. Instability will increase gradually on Monday, but forecast thermal profiles just appear marginally unstable at this time, limiting updraft strength and severe potential. This trough may become partially closed again as it makes its way eastward across the OH/TN Valley regions, with chances for showers/thunderstorms continuing into Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening. Upper level cloud cover from the storms to our south will persist overnight but are expected to gradually thin out Friday morning. In fact, clear skies are forecast by mid-evening on Friday. Winds overnight will generally remain around 5 knots or less, but increase through the morning hours. By early Friday afternoon, northwest winds between 10-15 knots with gusts up to 15-20 knots are anticipated. Although, winds will diminish through the evening hours to be 5 knots or less once again by around midnight. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...26