111
FXUS64 KHUN 101443
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
943 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 943 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An upper level trough axis will progress through the TN Valley
with little fanfare today as a surface cold front pushes through
the southern half of Alabama. Surface high pressure filters into
the Southern Plains, raising the pressure gradient and resulting
in some gusty north winds up to 20-25 mph. No big changes made to
the morning update, as high temperatures are still expected to
peak in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Upper level northwest flow will persist into this weekend, but an
upper ridge will make its way over the Tennessee Valley on
Sunday. Overall, surface high pressure should largely maintain its
hold over the local area; however, a weak surface cold front may
progress over Kentucky and Tennessee Saturday afternoon. Any
precipitation associated with this feature looks to remain to our
northeast and thus, the dry forecast will continue through Sunday.
Overall, expect a nice weekend with mostly sunny skies. High
temperatures are forecast to gradually warm, with highs in the
upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Sunday afternoon. Although, a
much cooler night than we`ve seen recently is on tap for tonight.
Lows will likely dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
Tennessee Valley. Some patchy fog development is possible late
tonight into early Saturday morning as well. Lows Saturday night
will then be a touch warmer, but still be in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An unsettled and generally wet pattern is in the forecast for the
new work week. At the start of the period, surface high pressure
over the eastern CONUS will move towards the SE coast by Monday
morning. While this occurs, a system that should bring convection
over the southern Great Plains will rapidly advance to the NE
under a subtropical flow from the SW/northern Mexico. This next
system will bring an increase in clouds and return chances of
showers beginning before daybreak for parts of NW to north central
Alabama, then overspreading the rest of the area during the
course of Mon morning. Before showers return, a southern flow and
higher heights should make for a slightly milder Sunday night with
lows in the mid/upper 50s. More clouds and higher rain chances
will make for a cooler start to the work week, with highs Mon in
the mid 70s. Have returned isolated to scattered chances of
thunderstorms Mon afternoon and evening. A feed of moisture from
the south will continue into Tuesday evening, with scattered to
numerous showers, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Overall
Thunderstorm intensity at this time looks to be general, with
possible gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning
strikes. Instances of heavier precipitation on our rather wet
soils could run off, bringing a risk of ponding of water and/or
flash flooding. Too many variations in model output further out
precludes trying to pick the wettest day, and where it will occur.

Rain chances will continue for the mid and latter half of the
week as another system moves in from the west. Despite more clouds
than sun and daily shower/thunderstorm chances, a moderation in
the airmass should help daily high temperatures return into the
lower 80s. Lows for the mid/latter half of the week should range
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday morning. Clouds will
gradually clear through this morning, with mostly sunny skies
this afternoon. Anticipating clear skies by this evening.
Northwest winds will increase to between 10-15 knots this
afternoon, with wind gusts between 15-20 knots. However, winds are
forecast to decrease through this evening, with light and
variable winds expected overnight tonight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...26