Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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111 FXUS64 KHUN 101443 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 943 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 943 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An upper level trough axis will progress through the TN Valley with little fanfare today as a surface cold front pushes through the southern half of Alabama. Surface high pressure filters into the Southern Plains, raising the pressure gradient and resulting in some gusty north winds up to 20-25 mph. No big changes made to the morning update, as high temperatures are still expected to peak in the upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Upper level northwest flow will persist into this weekend, but an upper ridge will make its way over the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Overall, surface high pressure should largely maintain its hold over the local area; however, a weak surface cold front may progress over Kentucky and Tennessee Saturday afternoon. Any precipitation associated with this feature looks to remain to our northeast and thus, the dry forecast will continue through Sunday. Overall, expect a nice weekend with mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are forecast to gradually warm, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Sunday afternoon. Although, a much cooler night than we`ve seen recently is on tap for tonight. Lows will likely dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Tennessee Valley. Some patchy fog development is possible late tonight into early Saturday morning as well. Lows Saturday night will then be a touch warmer, but still be in the lower to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 An unsettled and generally wet pattern is in the forecast for the new work week. At the start of the period, surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS will move towards the SE coast by Monday morning. While this occurs, a system that should bring convection over the southern Great Plains will rapidly advance to the NE under a subtropical flow from the SW/northern Mexico. This next system will bring an increase in clouds and return chances of showers beginning before daybreak for parts of NW to north central Alabama, then overspreading the rest of the area during the course of Mon morning. Before showers return, a southern flow and higher heights should make for a slightly milder Sunday night with lows in the mid/upper 50s. More clouds and higher rain chances will make for a cooler start to the work week, with highs Mon in the mid 70s. Have returned isolated to scattered chances of thunderstorms Mon afternoon and evening. A feed of moisture from the south will continue into Tuesday evening, with scattered to numerous showers, and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Overall Thunderstorm intensity at this time looks to be general, with possible gusty winds, heavy downpours and sudden lightning strikes. Instances of heavier precipitation on our rather wet soils could run off, bringing a risk of ponding of water and/or flash flooding. Too many variations in model output further out precludes trying to pick the wettest day, and where it will occur. Rain chances will continue for the mid and latter half of the week as another system moves in from the west. Despite more clouds than sun and daily shower/thunderstorm chances, a moderation in the airmass should help daily high temperatures return into the lower 80s. Lows for the mid/latter half of the week should range in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through Saturday morning. Clouds will gradually clear through this morning, with mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Anticipating clear skies by this evening. Northwest winds will increase to between 10-15 knots this afternoon, with wind gusts between 15-20 knots. However, winds are forecast to decrease through this evening, with light and variable winds expected overnight tonight. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...26