Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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436 FXUS61 KILN 181957 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 357 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbance and an unstable airmass will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the portions of the region this evening. Much above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with slightly cooler conditions for the second half of the workweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Mid level shortwave evident on water vapor over East Central Ohio. This feature along with instability (CAPE around 1000 J/KG) and low level convergence was leading to the development of scattered convection mainly over ILN/s eastern counties. DCAPE values around 900 J/KG will create a favorable environment for isold gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will be short lived due to the rather weak wind flow. With the loss of heating this convection will dissipate this evening. Lows tonight drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Light northerly low level flow will likely lead to the development of patchy fog overnight. With some drying today - conditions are less favorable and therefore do not expect fog to be as impactful as what we observed this morning. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Narrow mid level and surface ridges to build into the area Sunday. This will allow for dry and mostly sunny sky conditions. A warm day is in store for the region with highs generally in the mid 80s. The mid level ridge axis looks to continue protecting the area from pcpn Sunday night. Axis of weak instability will slip into areas to the north around the periphery of the ridge. Have a few mid level clouds spilling into the northwest with lows from 60 to 65. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm conditions with highs in the 80s will be in place Monday and Tuesday with the potential for a few pop up showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move through Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be the potential for severe weather on Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty with the strength of this system and timing. Due to this, held off on adding to the HWO at this time until more details are resolved. After the passage of the front cooler will conditions will be in place for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s. There is still model variance and uncertainty for Friday into Saturday on whether a cooler and drier pattern will set up or whether there will be a surge in moisture from the south. Continued to limit precipitation chances to the chance category until models come more in line. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog has lifted to a VFR cumulus deck. A few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon. The best threat/coverage looks to occur across central Ohio - where low end moderate instability exists along with weak low level convergence. Due to the limited coverage have not mentioned pcpn in the TAFs at this time. Any pcpn and clouds will decrease quickly early this evening. Light east to northeast winds will become variable/calm overnight. Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to some patchy fog development overnight. Have MVFR vsby restrictions at KCVG, KDAY, KLUK with IFR conditions at KILN and KLUK. Ridging over the area Sunday with fog improving quickly after sunrise. Once fog improves VFR conditions are expected thru the remainder of the TAF forecast period. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs, along with thunderstorms, will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR