499
FXUS63 KIWX 110822
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
422 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warmer weather with highs in the 70s today, 80s
  Wednesday and approaching 90 Thursday.

- Dry through Wednesday then chances for storms with strong
  gusty winds Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Becoming hot and humid early next week with with highs around
  90 to 95 with heat indices near 100 Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Chilly air had settled over the area. Temperatures were well
down into the 40s at the onset early this morning. The shallow
cold air will mix out with very large diurnal rises of 30F to
35F later today. Return flow around a large surface high will
begin today and allow highs to recover well above normal by
Thursday with afternoon temperatures approaching 90.

The latest expectations regarding storms associated with a weak
cold front continue to include the potential for strong gusty
winds. SPC has placed part of the forecast area in a marginal
risk. The GFS still favors CAPE values generally below 2000
J/Kg. Given modest CAPE, limited bulk shear by afternoon and
modest precipitable water values, gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall are expected.

Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will develop Sunday and
likely persist into the middle of next week. The model blend
raised highs Monday into the upper 90s. Given climatological
data, lowered highs about 2 degrees rendering with highs of 92
to 95 with heat indices near 100F. Given high confidence in
this scenario, will continue to message the heat & humidity in
the Hazardous Weather Product for now. Substantial precipitable
water values >= 1.7" with high CAPEs will support chances for
stronger storms with heavy rainfall. Activity should be highly
diurnal with the best chances for storms during late afternoons
and evening hours.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

High pressure remains in control with VFR conditions, light
winds and only some passing high clouds through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel