Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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499 FXUS63 KIWX 110822 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 422 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued warmer weather with highs in the 70s today, 80s Wednesday and approaching 90 Thursday. - Dry through Wednesday then chances for storms with strong gusty winds Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. - Becoming hot and humid early next week with with highs around 90 to 95 with heat indices near 100 Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Chilly air had settled over the area. Temperatures were well down into the 40s at the onset early this morning. The shallow cold air will mix out with very large diurnal rises of 30F to 35F later today. Return flow around a large surface high will begin today and allow highs to recover well above normal by Thursday with afternoon temperatures approaching 90. The latest expectations regarding storms associated with a weak cold front continue to include the potential for strong gusty winds. SPC has placed part of the forecast area in a marginal risk. The GFS still favors CAPE values generally below 2000 J/Kg. Given modest CAPE, limited bulk shear by afternoon and modest precipitable water values, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are expected. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will develop Sunday and likely persist into the middle of next week. The model blend raised highs Monday into the upper 90s. Given climatological data, lowered highs about 2 degrees rendering with highs of 92 to 95 with heat indices near 100F. Given high confidence in this scenario, will continue to message the heat & humidity in the Hazardous Weather Product for now. Substantial precipitable water values >= 1.7" with high CAPEs will support chances for stronger storms with heavy rainfall. Activity should be highly diurnal with the best chances for storms during late afternoons and evening hours. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1215 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 High pressure remains in control with VFR conditions, light winds and only some passing high clouds through the period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Steinwedel