Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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971 FXUS64 KJAN 280223 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 923 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Rest of tonight... Dry aftn will give way to a quiet night. Water vapor/RAP/00Z observations indicate synoptic large scale troughing across the eastern half of the nation, with the focus over the Mid-West to Great Lakes. Frontal system extends from sfc low northeast of Lake Huron & draped southwestward across the Gulf Coast states. Evening 00Z upper air observations indicate dry, subsident northwesterly flow, with increased frontal convergence & better moisture/storm potential residing closer to the Gulf Coast. PWs are on the downtrend, around 1.2 inches on the 28/00Z obs at JAN while less than an inch PWs to the northwest & progged to build southeast over the Gulf Coast states by the morning. Other than some broad ascent that could bring in some high passing cirrus/orphan anvils of storms in north-central TX, skies will be mostly clear tonight. Light winds will aid in more seasonable lows in the mid-upper 60s, with cool spots in the Hwy 25 corridor potentially 64-66 degree F range. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Through Tuesday: For the late afternoon to early evening, the main concerns will be heat stress, especially across southern portions of the area, and also for a continued marginal risk south of the Highway 84 corridor. As it stands, storms have yet to redevelop, but most recent visible imagery show the potential for a seabreeze front to interact the lingering convective outflow boundary over se MS, and this may offer the greatest potential for isolate storms, mainly in the Pine Belt region. In addition, the boundary layer remains quite oppressive and will maintain current heat danger messaging, including a heat advisory that was issued earlier for the Natchez area. During the overnight, expect fair weather conditions with slightly cooler low temperatures. For Tuesday, a nearly stationary frontal boundary skirting the southwest portion of the forecast area will potential support storm development late in the day. Some guidance indicate that a convective system will move across the ArkLaTex region and track southeast along the boundary, potentially impacting far southwest portions of the area. Given the storm organization and cold pool potential, have included a marginal risk for severe weather for far southwest portions and this in included now in the HWO graphics. Otherwise, not much in the way of significant weather impacts are expected elsewhere, but temperatures will remain on the hot side. /EC/ Tuesday night through the weekend: Through the long term isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will be present almost everyday of the period. The pattern will be one dominated by upper level troughing across the area keeping a boundary across our west/southwest and heavily contributing to the lingering precip chances. As rounds of shortwave energy interact with the boundary we can expect to see mostly sub-severe showers and storms mainly across our western periphery. Over the course of the period we can expect to see a continuation of the H5 ridge building over the Southern Plains. This will lead to increased northwesterly flow, with a slightly drier and cooler airmass moving in bringing high temperatures in the low to high 80s by midweek. Come Saturday a stronger shortwave moves through the area bringing increased chances for showers and storms areawide. Sunday through Monday temperatures and moisture will begin to increase as low-level flow increases bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and storms across the area. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Other than an isolated SHRA or TSRA psbl in the Pine Belt near PIB/HBG through 28/01Z, VFR flight categories with light & variable winds, at most to 10mph, are expected through the period the next 24 hours. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 92 68 83 / 0 10 10 30 Meridian 66 93 67 85 / 10 0 0 20 Vicksburg 69 93 69 81 / 0 10 10 30 Hattiesburg 70 95 69 88 / 10 10 10 20 Natchez 70 94 69 83 / 0 20 20 30 Greenville 69 91 70 80 / 0 10 10 30 Greenwood 67 91 68 80 / 0 10 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/KP/DC