438
FXUS62 KJAX 221818
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
218 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak high pressure ridge settles over the area this afternoon
with a continued NE Flow along the Atlantic Coast, which will
continue showers along the coastal areas south of St. Augustine
and inland to Putnam/Marion Counties through sunset, but otherwise
Mostly Sunny and dry elsewhere with above normal temps continuing
with highs around 90F inland and middle 80s along the Atlantic
Coast. Not as breezy this afternoon with Northeast winds at
10-15G20 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 5-10G15 mph over inland
areas. Weak high pressure lingers over the area tonight and under
mostly clear skies and calm winds over inland areas, expect low
temps in the mid/upper 60s and locally dense fog to develop
towards morning, with the lowest visibility expected across inland
NE FL and along the I-75 corridor and dense fog advisories may be
required close to sunrise Monday morning. Closer to the Atlantic
Coast, some patchy fog will be possible as winds become light and
variable during the overnight hours with lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the
weather pattern through Tuesday with PWAT values measuring between
1 and 1.5 inches. Prevailing flow will shift to become more out
of the southeast and south as high pressure gradually shifts more
towards the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to
develop along Flagler and St Johns Counties through Tuesday with
patchy to dense early morning fog expected to develop over inland
areas during this period. High temperatures for the beginning of
the week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the
upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will
drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as
high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts
about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased
chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential
tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 80%
chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the
precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments
remain somewhat ambiguous at this time, however abundant rainfall
associated with the system is expected for the region. Daily high
temperatures will experience a cooling trend this as the week
progresses with max temps dropping to be below the seasonal
average by the end of the forecast period.

Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

NE Flow along the NE FL coast is producing some MVFR CIGS this
afternoon at SGJ, otherwise VFR conds at all other TAF sites
through the evening hours. Near calm winds develop after sunset
tonight and expect fog to be a bigger issue late tonight with IFR
conds likely at VQQ/GNV in the 08-12Z time frame, along with MVFR
vsbys at JAX/CRG more likely in the 10-12Z time frame, but not
expected along the coast at SSI/SGJ. VFR conds return in the
13-14Z time frame as fog lifts/dissipates and some FEW-SCT diurnal
Cumulus develops late in the TAF period, but not expecting any
MVFR CIGS at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Onshore flow continues but will ease today as high pressure
slides into the waters. A weak pressure pattern will continue
through the middle of next week as high pressure lingers to the
east northeast. During the second half of next week, an area of
disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a
broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical
disturbance next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for rip currents for areas beaches
through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Decreasing astronomical tidal influences and easing onshore flow
will lower tidal levels this afternoon. Minor tidal flooding
remains a concern for the St Johns River basin. Trapped tides are
likely to continue minor flood within the St Johns River and its
tributaries into the coming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  91  69 /  10  20   0   0
SSI  85  73  86  74 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  89  68  90  72 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  87  71  88  74 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  92  67  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  92  68  92  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-125-
     132-137-225-325.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124-
     133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$