828
FXUS62 KJAX 161519
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES...
...MONITORING POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS
TOWARDS MIDWEEK...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Late morning surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure
(1027 millibars) centered over New England, with a decaying
frontal boundary wedging southward through the Carolinas and the
southern Appalachians. Aloft...stout ridging prevails over the
southeastern states, with the feature steering shortwave energy
around its western periphery from the southern Plains states
northeastward to the Great Lakes region. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier than
average air mass remains over most of our region, except for
locations near the Suwannee River, where values were around 1.8
inches, which is closer to climatology. PWAT values elsewhere
were generally in the 1.3- 1.5 inch range, with higher PWATS just
north of our region near the decaying frontal boundary. Our local
pressure gradient is beginning to tighten as high pressure wedges
down the southeastern seaboard, with breezy onshore winds taking
shape at area beaches late this morning. Southeasterly low level
flow has shaped a healthy cumulus field across our area, and
temperatures at 15Z were already in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across our area, with dewpoints mostly in the 70s.

Breezy easterly winds will overspread inland locations as the
afternoon progresses, with onshore winds increasing to the 15-20
mph range with occasional gusts up to 30 mph by late this
afternoon and early this evening along the Atlantic coast. The
strengthening surface ridge along the New England coast will
generally advect a dry and subsident air mass onshore, with the
Atlantic sea breeze progressing well inland towards the I-75
corridor by the late afternoon hours. This boundary will encounter
higher PWAT values located along and west of the Suwannee River,
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to
erupt by late afternoon for locations along and west of I-75 in
the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. In advance of the
approaching Atlantic sea breeze boundary, highs will soar to the
mid and possibly upper 90s across the Suwannee Valley and inland
southeast GA, where dewpoints will crash through the 60s this
afternoon, keeping maximum heat index values around 100. Breezy
onshore winds will keep highs in the lower 90s for locations east
of U.S. Highway 301, and coastal temperatures will fall into the
80s by late afternoon as onshore winds strengthen.

Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-75 corridor
during the mid to late afternoon hours will progress westward
across the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers by sunset. Breezy and
convergent low level easterly flow may begin to advect isolated
showers developing over the Atlantic waters onshore along the
northeast FL coastal counties towards sunrise on Monday. The
onshore breeze will be slow to weaken along the coast overnight,
keeping lows in the upper 70s to around 80 for locations east of
I-95, while lows elsewhere fall to the low and mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday...Relatively strong high pressure center building into
the Carolinas north of the region will continue to increase the
Easterly flow off the Atlantic with breezy winds at 15-25G35 mph
along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20G30 mph over inland
areas during the afternoon hours. Likely expecting a high risk
of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. This flow pattern will
push scattered showers and isolated storms into the coastal areas
through the day and into the inland areas during the afternoon
hours with gusty winds as the main threat from storm activity. Max
temps will be close to normal values in the upper 80s along the
Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland
areas.

Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains
locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly
flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast
with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over
inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will
continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms
from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with
gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas
during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal
levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas.

Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wednesday/Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin
up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance
pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula.
Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low
pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall
and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line
during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to
50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy
storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the
main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal
levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the
mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still
reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the
local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this
month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but
localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and
along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles.

Friday/Saturday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a
weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region
and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25
mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as
it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture
will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70%
range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max
temps bounce back near and slightly above normal levels with highs
in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor
with lower to middle 90s over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A few bands of stratus will move in off the Atlantic early this
morning. These clouds could result in a few restrictions at
coastal TAF sites early in this period. Convection will initiate
later this morning just inland of KSGJ. This activity will then
spread west across NE FL through the afternoon. The KGNV site will
have the best chance for restrictions in showers and storms this
afternoon into early evening. This convection will dissipate later
this evening, with clearing skies for the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure centered over New England will strengthen as it
moves slowly offshore this afternoon. This feature will result in
strengthening easterly winds by late this afternoon and evening
throughout our local waters, with winds and seas gradually
increasing early this week as this high pressure center remains
anchored off the New England coastline. Small Craft will need to
Exercise Caution if venturing into our local waters on Monday and
Monday night, as easterly winds strengthen to 15-20 knots and seas
build to 3-5 feet on Monday and 4-6 feet by Monday evening. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin both near shore
and offshore on Tuesday, as onshore winds strengthen to around 20
knots and seas build to 5-7 feet.

Low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Atlantic
early this week, with this feature gradually organizing towards
midweek as it moves westward across the Bahamas, with a low risk
for tropical development as this system approaches our local
waters late on Wednesday night and Thursday. Please stay tuned to
updates from the National Hurricane Center this week for potential
changes to this forecast. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will gradually increase across our local waters, with widespread
activity likely by mid to late week. Seas will continue to build,
with near shore seas climbing to the 8-11 foot range by Thursday,
while seas offshore build to 9-13 feet.

Rip Currents: Strengthening easterly winds this afternoon will
result in building and increasingly rough surf, especially during
the outgoing tide late this afternoon and early this evening. A
High Risk of rip currents is expected by late afternoon at the
northeast FL beaches, with a high end moderate risk for the
southeast GA beaches, where wave heights should remain around 2
feet or less today. A high risk of rip currents is expected for
the upcoming work week at all area beaches due to gradually
strengthening onshore winds and building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Easterly surface and transport winds will become breezy this
afternoon, creating good to marginally high daytime dispersion
values for locations along and north of the Interstate 10
corridor. Generally fair dispersion values are expected for north
central FL this afternoon. A dry air mass will prevail for inland
locations across southeast GA and also for northern portions of
the Suwannee Valley today and again on Monday, where afternoon
humidity values will fall to the 30-35 percent. Breezy easterly
transport winds will prevail area-wide on Monday and Tuesday, with
windy surface conditions expected along the I-95 corridor during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Good to high daytime
dispersion values are forecast throughout our region for the
early to middle portions of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  89  80  87  80 /  10  10  30  20
JAX  91  74  90  73 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  89  79  87  80 /  10  10  30  20
GNV  93  73  92  72 /  40  10  10  10
OCF  93  73  92  73 /  50  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
     125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$