382
FXUS65 KLKN 210942
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
242 AM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and a few degrees warmer today, with increasing
clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures jump significantly higher on
Saturday, with well above normal temperatures continuing into
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. Weak trough energy
over the region today will result in some afternoon cumulus cloud
build-ups. The probability of thunderstorms this afternoon
(5-10%) is too low to justify adding TS to the forecast. Can not
rule out a couple lightning strikes over the region as a whole
today however, with virga also possible. Winds this afternoon will
generally be in the 5-10mph range with gusts of 15-25mph. It is
possible however that collapsing cumulus clouds late this
afternoon and early evening could produce stronger downdraft winds
as model sounding show DCAPE values ranging from 1200-1700 J/kg.
Trough energy exits east into Utah this evening, leaving a weak
near-zonal flow across northern and central NV. High pressure
builds in from the south on Saturday which will result in
noticeably warmer temperatures across the region, with many
locations warming by an additional 4-8 degrees as afternoon highs
reach 90s in many areas and even low 100s in some of the lower
elevation valleys such as Winnemucca and Battle Mountain. Dry and
storm-free across the region on Saturday.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

Dry southwesterly flow resides over the forecast area Sunday as
high pressure resides over the four corners region and low
pressure builds over the Gulf of Alaska. This setup looks to
remain in place thru mid week with dry weather in store,
complimented by typical afternoon breezes with gusts around 20
mph. Afternoon cumulus will also be present each day. Slight
increase in PoPs indicated across eastern Nevada and along the
Utah border Wednesday with slightly better probability for cumulus
buildups during the afternoon along the Utah border. Probability
of precipitation remains less than 10% however. Temperatures will
be warmer than normal thru mid week with daytime highs persisting
in the upper 80s to upper 90s and overnight lows in the upper 40s
to upper 50s. Some concern for SE Elko County including the
Wendover area with overnight low temperatures currently forecast
to remain in the low 70s, hampering overnight recovery from
daytime highs that will be in the upper 90s.

Deep upper low noted over the Gulf of Alaska is indicated to move
into the PacNW in the Thursday time frame which would bring a
cold front into northern Nevada from the northwest late Thursday
or sometime Friday. However, there is disagreement among guidance
as to the evolution of the low and low confidence is expressed in
timing and potential impacts at this time. But a low probability
of showers will be present across northern Nevada and gusty winds
will likely be the main effect along with temperatures cooling a
few degrees the latter half of the week from north to south.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Friday. Winds will be light of the W to SW at 5KT to 15KT
with gusts to 25KT across northern and central Nevada. There is a
low 10% chance of an isolated dry thunderstorm or two that will
exist across the I-80 corridor Friday afternoon with gusty outflow
winds and a few lightning strikes being the main hazards.
Probabilities remain to low at this time to mention VCTS for
KWMC, KBAM, or KEKO in TAFs, but it could be included in later
TAF updates should confidence warrant.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Weak instability in combination with mid-level
moisture this afternoon is expected to produce some cumulus cloud
build-ups across much of the region. Latest guidance suggests a
5-10% chance of thunderstorms over mainly zones 427 425 469 and
470 today, which is too low of a confidence level to include any
thunderstorms in the forecast. Fuels are not considered critical
yet in any of these zones. Temperatures continue to trend higher,
with most locations seeing rises in afternoon highs today in the
2-4 degree range. Much warmer on Saturday with temperature
climbing by an additional 4-8 degrees. These well above normal
temperatures will continue into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Temperatures trend warmer the rest of the week, with
well above normal temperatures continuing into next week. Rises
on some area streams and creeks coming off higher terrain are
expected late this week, but for now not expecting any new
flooding as the snowpack is greatly diminished.

The mainstem Humboldt River near Comus is expected to drop below
action today.

Wildhorse Reservoir water level remains elevated from the spring
snowmelt.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

96/92/98/96