809
FXUS65 KLKN 122033
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV
130 PM PDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS
Above average temperatures continue through Friday with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Dry but breezy afternoon
conditions can be expected the next several days. Temperatures cool
back down over the weekend into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM
This afternoon through Thursday night. Current conditions show some
cumulus build ups across southern Elko, northern White Pine, and
portions of Lander, Eureka, and Nye counties. Some breezy southwest
winds gusting 20-30 mph with strongest winds expected across central
Nevada. Dry conditions will persist, with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, and Lows in the 50s.

Thursday, during the afternoon there`s some instability with surface
CAPE 500 J/kg, dew point temperatures range from 20-45F, and PWAT
across portions of Humboldt, Elko, Lander and Eureka counties of 0.5-
0.75 inches. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across
this area, with model DCAPE of 1300 J/kg late in the afternoon
suggesting some potential for gusty to erratic outflow winds from
collapsing updrafts. Isolated thunderstorms might be possible across
northern and portions of central Nevada, however conditions are
marginal enough that the environment may lead to convective or
cumulus build-ups instead before gusting out. Highs Thursday will
again be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the 50s.

&&


.LONG TERMFriday through next Wednesday.

Southwesterly flow over the forecast region Friday along with
lowering heights as a deep upper low moves into B.C. Canada. Weather
across northern and central Nevada will be relatively benign with
dry conditions and daily temperatures trending cooler from the north
thru the weekend. temperatures look to be a few degrees cooler than
average by Sunday or Monday. The typical afternoon breezes will also
be present with gusts in the 20 to 25 MPH range.

High uncertainty and low confidence continues to be expressed in the
details of the potential upper low and attendant surface front that
may move into the forecast area from the northwest early next week.
Numerical solutions continue to display discrepancy in strength and
timing as solutions waffle from one run to the next. Main sticking
point looks to be resolving the evolution of the aforementioned
upper low that moves into B.C. Friday, and the progression of a
perturbation of upper energy that looks to eject from the backside
of the low and move into the western U.S. Continuing to anticipate
sensible weather effects in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe with
gusty winds throughout the region and increased probability of
precipitation across northern Nevada, but that is all that can be
noted at this time.


&&


.AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for the next
24 hours. Afternoon breezes trend lighter thru this evening but will
return tomorrow afternoon with west/southwesterly gusts again 20-
25KTS.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER
Latest fuel calls have labeled FW zone 426 in Nye
County as having critically dry fuel status, with zones 427 in
Humboldt county, and 438 in Western Elko county approaching critical
fuels. Overall, dry conditions persist this afternoon with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area and lows in the 50s.
Similar conditions exist Thursday and Friday, with temperatures
again in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the 50s. Winds look
to be out of the southwest 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts. RH
will range from 5-20% across central Nevada this afternoon Thursday
and Friday afternoon, with some recovery overnight. As for active
weather, nothing expected this afternoon, however there may be some
isolated dry thunderstorms across portions of northern and central
Nevada, primarily FW zones (469, 438, 437, 424, & 427) However the
environment is marginal and may result in convective or cumulus
build-ups with gusty and erratic outflow winds as a result.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures will continue to reside warmer than
average thru Friday before cooling several degrees for the
Weekend. This will allow remaining high mountain snow-pack to
continue to melt at a quicker rate. Dry and mostly sunny weather
is expected, with little threat of showers or thunderstorms
bringing a rain on snow event this week as well.

The Humboldt River near Battle Mountain will continue to reside
in action stage for the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir will continue to reside in action stage for
the next several days.

Lamoille Creek will continue to reside in action stage for the
next several days. Diurnal fluctuations in height and discharge
will also continue with the creek peaking during the evening
hours. The creek may briefly enter minor flood stage while at
peak evening flow.

The Humboldt River at Comus remains below action stage at this time.
However a steady increase in flow has been noted over the last
several days thanks to increased high elevation snow melt throughout
the basin. The latest CNRFC forecast has the river moving into
action stage tomorrow, and minor flood stage this weekend.


&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.


$$


91/92/92/91/92