763
FXUS65 KLKN 252018
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
118 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing showers and thunderstorms across central
Nevada this afternoon will move into much of northern and eastern
Nevada by Wednesday. However, very dry conditions will remain
across northwestern Humboldt county along with gusty west-
southwest winds will promote critical fire weather conditions
Wednesday afternoon. Expect slightly cooler temperatures Thursday
and Friday with hot temperatures returning for the weekend along
with dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night

Considerable push of mid to upper-level moisture underway across
southern and central Nevada with GOES-18 satellite showing mid-
level clouds streaming northeastward along with a few (likely
virga) showers on radar reaching into southern Humboldt and the
Battle Mountain area. Convective environment is not too unstable
with so widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected although
instability remains through late tonight with nocturnal
thunderstorms expected across portions of central Nevada.
Temperatures remain hot in the 90s in many valleys with a very dry
subcloud layer still in place, prime for gusty outflow winds from
elevated showers and thunderstorms. In addition, hot daytime
temperatures and elevated overnight lows will continue to present
a heat risk across the West Wendover and surrounding lower
elevation areas through Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid
90s and lows in the 70s tonight.

Convective debris from this afternoon`s convection will advect
northeastern overnight but significant rainfall is not expected
along the I-80 corridor. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms within a more unstable and moisture atmospheric
profile combined with an subtle upper-level short wave moving
through the region are expected across the eastern half of Nevada
Wednesday. Chance of wetting rains of one tenth of an inch or more
are greatest across northeastern ELko county along with White Pine
county with probabilities approaching 45% in some places. Moisture
is quickly scoured away from west to east Wednesday night as the
trough and cold front push through the area. Lows Wednesday night
will be a bit more comfortable dropping into the 50s as opposed to
the lower 60s tonight.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

Thursday, some lingering showers and thunderstorms from overnight
across portions of eastern Nevada, should taper off west to east
as the cold front and associated trough responsible for producing
the active weather also progresses eastward throughout the
morning and early afternoon hours. High temperatures will
generally range in the upper 70s to mid 80s across and north of
the I-80 corridor, and upper 80s to lower 90s south of the I-80
corridor. Night time lows are expected to range in the low 40s
across the north, to low 50s across central Nevada.

Friday upper level flow remains somewhat zonal, resulting in dry
weather and temperatures rising into the upper 80s to lower 90s
for most, with lows dropping into the 40s and 50s.

Saturday, breezy condtions can be expected with the next
approaching system nearing the state. Strong Southwesterly winds
on the leading edge of a trough will encompass central Nevada,
20-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph possible at Ely and Tonopah. Winds
further north will be westerly and slightly weaker (15-20 gusting
to 25-30 mph). Some upper level convergence across Lander and
Eureka counties will be an area to keep an eye on if some
orographic forcing could get anything going. However, nothing is
expected at this current time. Temperatures will get up into the
low to mid 90s for much of the area due to the surge of southerly
winds. Lows are expected to bottom out in the mid 50s.

Sunday the upper level trough axis will progress over the state,
producing some favorable areas of lift across northern Nevada,
along with a fair amount of bulk shear and marginal CAPE. This is
expected to be enough to produce isolated to scattered showers
and thunder showers across the ID/NV boarder. Strong to gusty
winds will still be present with the trough passage with west to
southwest winds gusting to 30-40 mph. If current guidance holds
with gusty westerly winds, blowing dust or smoke from any fires in
California could advect into the region. Temperatures cool but
only slightly as highs are expected to range in the 80s to low 90s
during the day, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Monday and Tuesday look dry as the weekend trough departed the
region Sunday night and the next system looks to approach by mid-
week. Highs will generally range in the 80s to low 90s with lows
in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday.
Additional mid to upper-level moisture continues to move into
central and northeastern Nevada this afternoon, allowing for more
widespread convection including isolated dry thunderstorms. Gusty
outflow winds and lightning will be the primary threats. Breezy
winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF sites during the
afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots.
Showers and some nocturnal thunderstorms may remain around KELY
and KTPH through 12Z Wednesday before showers tapper tapper off.
Convection returns to eastern NV anytime after 18Z with Isolated
to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across KELY, and
as well as east of and including KEKO. These storms increase in
coverage around 20Z and expand to include KTPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Increasing showers and thunderstorms are expected
across central Nevada this evening reaching into northeastern and
eastern Nevada by tonight. The initial surge of mid-level moisture
is strong, however, will take some time to mix out the very dry
sub-cloud layer in place so initial showers and thunderstorms
will be mostly dry with gusty outflow winds and some cloud to
ground lightning. Moisture will largely stay east of Humboldt
county where critical fire weather conditions including gusty
west- southwest winds and RH below 15% are expected across fire
zone 437 Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will be more widespread across the eastern half of
Nevada Wednesday afternoon with a higher likelihood of
thunderstorms (30-40% chance in some areas in northern Elko and
eastern White Pine county) as a more unstable atmosphere develops
in the afternoon. A cold front and associated upper- level
disturbance will push most of the moisture out of the region
Thursday lowering humidity and temperatures for much of the
northern and eastern Nevada. Dry conditions and temperatures back
up into the 90s return Friday and Saturday with another upper-
level disturbance acting to increase winds across the state along
with bringing a few showers and thunderstorms along the ID/NV
border Sunday.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday Humboldt
County-Quinn.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

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