185
FXUS65 KLKN 142104
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above average temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
come to an end after today as a few systems will cool
temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s to start next week.
Windy condtions are expected each of the next few afternoons.


&&

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Saturday evening.

Current satellite shows mostly sunny skies, with some areas of
cumulus buildups across portions of eastern and northwestern
Nevada. Dry condtions continue with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to low 50s. Strong
westerly winds will be strongest across Humboldt and Lander
counties this afternoon, where observed winds of 20-25 mph with
gusts 30-35 mph are possible. Some higher summits could see higher
localized higher wind speeds. As a result patchy blowing dust has
been added the forecast in these areas. Elsewhere, winds 15-20
mph with gusts 25-30 mph are possible.


Saturday, a trough pushes through Montana with some of its cooler
air, and wind field extending south into Nevada. Highs across the
state will range from the upper 70s to low 80s. Dry weather is
expected, however windy condtions also continue. Westerly winds
will pick up across Nevada in the late morning to early afternoon
timeframe, with winds strongest north of and including the I-80
corridor, where west winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph are
likely. As the trough progresses eastward, winds will shift from
westerly to northerly during the mid to late afternoon timeframe,
and stay northerly through the night. Prescribed burns going on in
southern Idaho will factor into sky and air conditions as the
shift to northerly winds is expected to bring haze and areas of
smoke south across western and central parts of Elko, and
eventually portions of Lander and Eureka counties during the
afternoon and overnight hours. Lows are forecasted in the mid 40s
to low 50s areas south of I-80, and in the upper 30s to low 40
across areas north of I-80.


.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Big story will be declining temperatures through the middle of
next week with possible sub freezing overnight lows, especially
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Falling heights in response to
an advancing long wave trough across the western U.S. will
facilitate falling temperatures under a elevated northwest flow
regime. Sunday will be dry with some light shower development
across far northern Elko county Monday afternoon. Snow levels drop
to around 6300-6800 feet across northern Elko county Monday. Only
Highs by Monday afternoon will have dropped in the 60s and 70s,
with some 50s for highs north of I-80. Low temperatures will
steadily fall through early next week plummeting into the 30s for
most valleys by Tuesday morning. Probability of sub-freezing
temperatures are highest (>50%) across portions of Elko county and
higher terrain of central Nevada. Even if temperatures do not
fall to 32F or below, frost is a real concern for sensitive
outdoor plants.

A continuing trough-like pattern will only allow a slow rise in
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with a return to more summer-
like temperatures under southwest winds by Friday, back into the
lower 90s at least for lower valleys. Chances for precipitation
remain absent which will act to further dry out fuels across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours at
all terminals. Elevated southwest-west winds of 15 knots with
gusts to around 25 knots across the area will abate late evening.
A few mid-level clouds are expected along with light haze,
although visibility will remain above 10SM at all TAF sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...No active weather is expected through the weekend,
however, gusty westerly winds are expected each afternoon, with
winds gusting as high as 25-30 kts. RH percentages will generally
range in the 8-20% range with the strongest winds north of US-50,
and lowest RH`s south of US-50. Temperatures cool down from the
80s and 90s this afternoon, to the 70s and low 80s by Sunday.
Below average temperatures are expected to begin next week.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...This afternoon will be the last of the above average
temperature days. These above average temperatures will result in
increased melting from the remaining snow-pack at high
elevations. A series of troughs will move through Nevada dropping
temperatures to average levels for the weekend (upper 70s low
80s), before dropping them further below average (upper 60s) by
Monday and Tuesday. This is expected to temporarily slow the
melting process.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain is expected to remain in
action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt at Comus is expected to rise into action stage this
afternoon, and potentially into minor flood stage by the start of
next week.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues with diurnal fluctuations in height
between action stage but below minor flood stage. Additional snow
melt in Lamoille Canyon could bring the level of Lamoille Creek
near or above minor flood stage.

The Jarbidge River is trending lower and has dropped just outside
of action stage.




&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

91/93/93/91