624
FXUS64 KMAF 100722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and
evening have left a plethora of boundaries across the region, any
one of which could act as a focus for thunderstorms this
afternoon. Aloft, a shortwave that`s been slowly meandering east-
northeastward from Baja across the Four Corners the past couple of
days is progged to be absorbed into the back side of the broader
eastern CONUS trough, with the aforementioned shortwave developing
a negative tilt by this afternoon. The presence of this trough,
as well as a cold front sagging southward across the area, will
keep low-level moisture elevated, with NAEFS standardized
anomalies indicating precipitable water values on the order of 1
to 1.5 standard deviations above normal. Cloud cover, increased
moisture, and a post-frontal environment will keep temperatures on
the cooler side today, a welcome break from the unseasonably hot
temperatures we`ve faced since last week. Highs this afternoon top
out in the 80s for portions of Southeast New Mexico, the Permian
Basin, and higher terrain, with lower to middle 90s elsewhere,
save for the Rio Grande Valley where lower 100s will be focused.
Regardless, everyone will be at least a few degrees cooler than
yesterday, with temperatures near and even below normal for many.

The primary focus for today is the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. In spite of the cooler
temperatures, the presence of the frontal boundary as well as the
aforementioned shortwave will aid in ascent, with instability on
the order of 1500-2000 J/kg progged to develop by mid to late
afternoon after early morning cloud cover dissipates. The
difference between today and the past few days is that there will
be substantially more deep-layer shear for storms to work with,
thus the threat for organized convection is increased from prior
days. Steep lapse rates will lend to primarily a damaging wind and
large hail threat with the strongest storms today, though locally
heavy rain and flash flooding will also be a concern,
particularly for areas that received rainfall over the past 24
hours. While convection will initially be discrete and/or
multicellular, CAMs are indicating potential for a southeastward
moving MCS to develop during the evening off of the higher terrain
of Southeast New Mexico and progress across the Permian Basin. If
this were to occur, an increased damaging wind threat would be
realized through the evening hours.

Storms that develop this afternoon into this evening will
gradually exit the area to the east, though a few showers and
storms may linger over far eastern areas through the night. Lows
will bottom out in the 60s and lower 70s across the area, pretty
close to normal for early June. Tuesday will be a much quieter
weather day as the trough slides to the east of the region,
yielding increasing subsidence on its western periphery ahead of
building ridging to the west. Thus, while storms are possible once
again Tuesday afternoon, they will be confined mainly to the
topographically favored areas of Southwest Texas as well as across
the eastern Permian Basin in closer proximity to the shortwave as
it translates southeastward toward Central Texas. Some of the
storms in this area may become strong, with hail and gusty winds
again the primary concerns. Given the building ridge to the west
and the departing trough to the east, temperatures begin
rebounding on Tuesday, with highs progged to climb into the lower
to middle 90s for most, with 100s along the Pecos and Rio Grande
Valleys. So, for those who like cooler weather, today`s your
chance to enjoy it before we get thrown back into the blast
furnace later this week.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The last of widespread rain chances from this weekend`s storm
system will pass to the north and east of the area Tuesday night,
as an upper trough providing lift for showers and storms moves
away from the area. Ridging builds in into the end of next
weekend, with subsidence associated with the ridging suppressing
more widespread rain chances, and rain chances mainly limited to
diurnally driven showers and storms forced by heating of elevated
terrain across SE NM and W Texas. Main risk with any storms will
be fire starts from lightning.

Tuesday night will continue trend of warmer than average nights,
with 60s for most, 70s along the Pecos River and near the Rio
Grande. Wednesday, highs will be near normal for mid June, with
90s for most places, 80s over the higher elevations and Western
Low Rolling Plains, and triple digit readings over parts of Reeves
County, lower regions of Culberson County, and along the Rio
Grande. Wednesday night will be warmer than Tuesday night but
still feature lows falling into the 60s and 70s for most places.
Thursday features warmer than average highs for mid June with 90s,
triple digit readings along the Pecos River, over Reeves County
Plains and Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande. Lows
Thursday night have lows only falling into the mid 70s, 60s only
over usual cooler spots in northern Lea County and Permian Basin
and higher elevations. Friday through Saturday sees much the same
as Thursday for highs and Thursday night for lows. Sunday and
Monday, highs in the triple digits or higher, 90s over higher
elevations and northern portion of Lea County and Permian Basin
make an appearance, with lows only falling into the mid 70s, 60s
over usual cooler spots. Next Monday, highs 10 to 15 degrees above
average are apparent, with 105+ degree readings along the Pecos
River, over the Reeves County Plains into Western Permian Basin
and Stockton Plateau, and along the Rio Grande. The "cooler"
temperatures in the short term once again give way to summertime
heat. Make sure to limit time outdoors during the day when the
heat ramps up!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

At issuance, winds are variable and gusty due to outflow
boundaries and waning convection east of the terminals. Over the
next few hours, gusts will largely diminish as winds will settle
out of the N/NE, with a round of MVFR cigs progged to develop
into the area around 12Z-16Z. Have included mention of lower cigs
at MAF/HOB where confidence is highest, and will monitor and amend
as needed elsewhere. VFR conditions will return areawide
thereafter, though with scattered ceilings around 5-8kft. Around
21-22Z, thunderstorms are expected to develop over SE NM and
gradually move E/SE through the evening, thus have included VCTS
at CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF where confidence in potential impacts is
higher. Storms that develop would be capable of erratic gusty
winds, lightning, and MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               86  68  89  68 /  30  30  30  20
Carlsbad                 88  68  98  70 /  30  20  10   0
Dryden                   94  73  98  73 /  30  20  10  10
Fort Stockton            93  70  99  70 /  30  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           85  65  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Hobbs                    85  64  90  65 /  50  40  10  10
Marfa                    89  60  96  60 /  40  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     87  69  92  69 /  30  40  20  10
Odessa                   87  69  93  70 /  30  40  20  10
Wink                     92  70  98  72 /  20  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84