Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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526 FXUS64 KMAF 091136 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 After several seemingly copy-paste days with hot temperatures and afternoon storms, we have one more today, though changes are on the horizon by early this evening. It`s boundaries galore out there this morning, with diminishing showers over southeastern and eastern New Mexico as well as down toward the Big Bend, and a decaying MCS over the Panhandle. Outflow pushing southward across the South Plains will result in a northwesterly to northerly wind shift this morning for northern areas, though temperatures will only be slightly cooler. Highs are forecasted to reach the middle 90s north and across the mountain areas, and lower 100s elsewhere, yielding another round of Heat Advisory conditions for the Davis Mountains today, as well as across the Davis Mountains Foothills and all of Brewster County. The hottest temperatures, per normal, will be found along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend, where highs look to top out in the 110-111 degree range. A cold front is progged to progress southward from the Panhandle across the South Plains today, acting as a focus for thunderstorms to our north. Concurrently, daytime heating will be enough to foster thunderstorms across the higher terrain to the west and southwest this afternoon in a substantially moist environment. However given continued weak mid and upper level flow, storms are likely to evolve into multicell clusters, their progression governed by outflow boundary interactions. By late this afternoon into early this evening, the aforementioned front will edge into northern portions of the forecast area, which will allow for additional thunderstorm development as well as serve as a focus for storms to translate further eastward across the Permian Basin this evening into tonight. The front`s presence will serve to enhance shear, and given the approach of a southern stream shortwave to the west, increasing ascent could yield a few strong to marginally severe storms, capable of producing gusty winds and hail. Unlike previous days, convective activity will persist through the night, with chances increasing for most areas along and north of I-10 through Monday morning as the front moves south. In addition to the rain chances overnight, the front will also foster cooler temperatures, with lows expected to dip into the middle 60s for most, with lower 70s focused along the river valleys. Convective activity looks to continue into Monday morning, though gradually wane and shift to eastern areas. In the wake of tonight`s cold front, temperatures Monday will be substantially cooler, and will be the coolest temperatures we see for the duration of this forecast. Highs are progged to top out in the middle to upper 80s for much of the Permian Basin, portions of Southeast New Mexico, and across the mountains, with lower 90s focused across southern areas and along the Pecos Valley, and lower 100s along the Rio Grande. A trough moving across eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle will foster increased ascent and steepening lapse rates in the post-frontal environment, and as a result, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the entire region on Monday afternoon. While overall coverage remains uncertain, a north-south oriented axis of instability on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg will aid in storm development, with the aforementioned steep lapse rates as well as around 30-35kt of shear yielding potential for storms that develop to become strong to severe. Once again, the primary threats will be hail and wind gusts, though the location of the front as well as any remnant outflow boundaries will largely dictate the favored areas for storm development and propagation. Locally heavy rain will also be possible, with precipitable water values around 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. For many, this will be the best chance of rain in a while, with little additional rain in the forecast thereafter. JP && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Rain chances taper off from west to east Monday night as an upper ridge and associated subsidence build into the area. Lows will be above normal for mid June and mostly in the 60s, 70s along the Pecos River and near the Rio Grande. Tuesday through Thursday features a warming trend as the upper ridge intensifies. Widespread 90s and triple digit readings along the Pecos River, over the Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau, and near the Rio Grande are expected. Any 80s will be confined to the northeasternmost Permian Basin and higher elevations. Tuesday night lows will be warmer than Monday night, with widespread 70s and 60s only in northernmost Lea County, Permian Basin, and higher elevations. Wednesday will be even warmer than Tuesday with mostly triple digits readings, and 105+ degree readings over the Reeves County Plains and along the Rio Grande. 90s will be confined to the Western Low Rolling Plains and higher elevations. Wednesday night lows are similar to Tuesday night, but even warmer, with widespread mid 70s across the Permian Basin and mid 70s and above near the Rio Grande. Thursday is likely the warmest day in the long term, with widespread highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with 100s and above for most, 105+ degree readings all along the Pecos River, over Reeves County Plains and into western Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau, in lower elevations of Culberson County, and along the Rio Grande. Thursday night lows are similar to Wednesday night but warmer. Friday sees slightly "cooler" temperatures but with widespread triple digit highs still present, 90s limited to northern Lea County and Permian Basin and higher elevations, continuing each day into Sunday. Lows likewise only fall into the 70s for most Friday night, Saturday night, and Sunday night, 60s in northern Lea County and Permian Basin as well as higher elevations. Each day in the long term, subsidence from the ridge limits storm chances, with primary forcing arising from heating of elevated terrain. Main risk with any of these storms will be fire starts from lightning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Somewhat variable winds this morning will shift to the to the north/northeast by around 15Z-16Z at all but FST/PEQ, where southwesterly to westerly winds are more likely, and MAF, where winds will remain more easterly. Winds will remain elevated and intermittently gusty through the period. A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop around 21Z in the vicinity of CNM, HOB, and INK, thus have included VCTS mention there, with additional VCTS mention at other terminals as storms develop eastward and southward through the evening and overnight. Erratic gusty winds and lightning could accompany any storm, along with MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail, with winds shifting to the east-northeast areawide this evening through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 68 86 69 / 20 60 40 30 Carlsbad 100 67 91 68 / 20 40 30 20 Dryden 103 73 93 72 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Stockton 104 70 91 70 / 10 20 40 20 Guadalupe Pass 93 64 85 65 / 10 30 30 10 Hobbs 98 64 86 64 / 30 50 40 30 Marfa 96 60 88 58 / 10 10 40 20 Midland Intl Airport 101 68 87 69 / 20 40 30 30 Odessa 101 67 87 69 / 20 40 30 20 Wink 104 70 92 71 / 10 30 30 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...84 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...84