Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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857 FXUS64 KMAF 090547 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 WV imagery shows the upper ridge has shifted clear across Texas to the Louisiana coast this afternoon, allowing the Baja trough to move inland to the Gulf of California. However, this is having nor effect on afternoon highs, which should come in ~ 10F above normal. Diurnally-driven orographic convection is trying to develop invof the Davis Mountains, w/hi-res models expanding this over most of the higher terrain by late afternoon, after which it will diminish after sundown. With any luck, the drought-stricken higher terrain will get some much-needed rainfall. Of course, the downside to this will be fire starts from lightning, as what little fuels we have are dry. Tonight, despite a 35+ kt LLJ cranking up, convection will diminish by 06Z. This, and plenty of debris cloud will retard radiational cooling, resulting in yet another unseasonably warm night of lows 10- 12F above normal. Sunday, the Baja trough opens and moves to northern Chihuahua by 00Z Monday. To the northeast, a cold front will approach the CWA. CAMs develop convection during the afternoon along the front, and the incoming Baja trough will only exacerbate this. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place for all but the northeast, and deep- layer shear over the northeastern zones will render a severe threat. The northern zones will also see a little cooling invof the front, but for the rest of us, highs will be very similar to today`s, if not a degree or so warmer with a little pre-frontal compressional warming thrown into the mix. Sunday night, the Baja trough moves through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Models develop a MCS just north of the CWA, driving the front south to the border by 12Z Monday. This will increase chances of rain across the area, especially north. 60+F surface dewpoints are expected as far west as the Guadalupes, increasing pwats to over 3 std devs above normal. NAM forecast soundings increase pwat at KMAF to 1.87" by 06Z Monday, which is well over the max of 1.53" and mean of 1.01". This will likely translate to locally heavy rainfall northeast. This rain, and the front, should bring a little relief to the unseasonably warm nights of late, knocking at least 5F off of tonight`s temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Monday has gradually trended a bit more interesting as we draw closer in time to the day. An upper trough will be positioned across northeastern New Mexico while a few notable boundaries will be situated in our area. The first is a remnant outflow boundary caused by Sunday`s convection with the other being the cold front set to move through Sunday evening/overnight. It is still uncertain whether these two boundaries will merger together or where they will be positioned come Monday afternoon but this will largely dictates how Monday shakes out. Overall, there will be modest instability with the largest axis of CAPE (1500-2500 J/kg) expected to set up just south of the cold front where some moisture pooling occurs. This paired with boundary interactions, diurnal heating, and some synoptic aid from the nearby trough, should be enough to get a few storms going. Any storms that form will have 30+ kts of bulk shear to work on with some low-level directional shear as well (especially near the boundaries). With this, nearly all modes of severe weather will be possible, so this is surely something to keep an eye on over the next day or so. Between the cold front, plus added cloud cover/precipitation, Monday looks to be the "coolest" day of the long term with highs largely in the upper 80s for the Permian Basin and in the 90s/100s elsewhere. Beyond Monday, the pattern re-settles back into a quieter setup with northwesterly flow on Tuesday giving way to a building ridge set to control our weather for the second half of the week. The main highlight here is the rapid return of the heat for Tuesday, followed by a steady warming trend that could have widespread 100-110+ degree high temperatures for Thursday-Saturday with Thursday likely set to be the hottest day of the week. While good low level moisture remains in place through the week, the subsidence from the upper ridging limits low storm chances to the elevated heat sources of the Davis Mountains and western higher terrain each afternoon. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Lingering showers and associated outflow boundaries have produced some variable and gusty winds this evening, but overall, winds will settle out of the south to southeast tonight and then shift to the north/northeast Sunday morning at all but FST/PEQ, where southwesterly to westerly winds are more likely. Winds will remain elevated and intermittently gusty through the period. A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop around 21Z over SE NM, thus have included VCTS mention at CNM and HOB. Convection will move eastward, and given confidence is a bit higher for impacts at MAF toward 10/00Z, have included VCTS mention there, too. Erratic gusty winds and lightning could accompany any storm, along with MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 69 88 69 / 20 60 40 30 Carlsbad 101 68 92 67 / 20 40 30 20 Dryden 103 74 95 72 / 10 10 30 20 Fort Stockton 105 70 95 71 / 10 20 40 20 Guadalupe Pass 92 64 86 67 / 10 30 30 20 Hobbs 99 64 88 64 / 30 50 40 30 Marfa 97 59 93 59 / 10 10 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 101 69 88 69 / 20 40 40 20 Odessa 101 69 89 70 / 20 40 40 20 Wink 106 71 94 71 / 10 30 30 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...84