Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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165 FXUS64 KMEG 081754 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Skies are cloudy across the northern half of the Mid-South with mostly sunny skies across the remainder of the region. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 60s to around 80 degrees. A large area of light rain covers much of northeast Arkansas and into portions of west Tennessee. As this rain moves southeast, it will slowly fall apart. With the clouds and rain, temperatures are not warming up as much as expected so have adjusted high temperatures for this afternoon. ARS && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A complex of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated to remain mostly north of the area today over southern Missouri and western Kentucky as an upper-level ridge remains in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight into Sunday as a cold front drops into the region. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later this evening into early Sunday morning mainly north of I-40. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are possible. Cooler and drier air will build into the area for early next week with temperatures increasing back to the upper 80s to lower 90s for the latter half of next week as an upper-level ridge builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Friday) Issued at 443 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 GOES Water Vapor satellite trends this morning show a couple of upper-level lows over Canada. One upper-level low is centered over western Quebec while the other one is over central Manitoba. Meanwhile, an MCS is located over western Missouri on the northern periphery of an upper-level ridge axis early this morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show the nearest showers and thunderstorms over southwest Missouri. As of 4 AM CDT, temperatures across the Mid-South range from around 60 degrees to the middle 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate showers and thunderstorms associated with the MCS will be more prevalent just upstream of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western Kentucky today. 00Z KLZK and morning LAPS soundings show a substantial amount of dry air present across the area as of discussion time. Nonetheless, a potential exists for a few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across the northern edge of the CWA today where the ridge might be slightly weaker. Otherwise, dry conditions should prevail across most of the Mid-South with highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually begin to increase later this evening as modest mid-level height falls gradually begin to spread across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Moderate to strong surface based instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 0-6 km bulk shear values increasing to 30-40 kts support the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe weather threats. Soundings indicate a potential for storms to become elevated with time later tonight which may mitigate the wind threat late tonight. NAEFS indicates mean precipitable water values will be around the 90th percentile as precipitable water values increase to around 2 inches. This would suggest a potential for heavy rainfall across portions of the area. However, the HREF indicates the greatest potential for rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches may remain just north of the Mid-South over southern Missouri and western Kentucky. As a result, we held off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch at this time but will continue to monitor short-term trends for reconsideration if conditions warrant any changes. Mid/Long range models indicate shortwave ridging will build in across the region early next week with the potential for a weak mid-level trough to move across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Operational and ensemble model trends suggest this shortwave will be substantially weaker and confidence remains low with overall convective chances in the long-term forecast at this time as mid-level heights build into next week. Temperatures will start out cool for next week with highs gradually returning towards the upper 80s to lower 90s towards the latter half of the week. CJC && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Primary concern remains timing and track of upstream SHRA/TSRA. TSRA will likely form over MO late this afternoon, drifting ESE. This activity will likely remain north of MEM this evening, but may get close if convective outflow is pushed further south than anticipated. For the 18Z TAFs, kept a PROB30 for TS at JBR and MKL. TSRA chances remain non-zero after 09Z, but below mentionable thresholds at this time. Next chance for TSRA is expected near and south of MEM Sunday afternoon. This convection will likely form along a residual outflow boundary around the time or shortly after it passes through MEM. TUP will likely be the main terminal impacted Sunday afternoon. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...PWB