689
FXUS64 KMEG 080540 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High pressure is currently moving over the mid-south this Fri
afternoon...with a clear sky and warm/dry conditions noted. Temps
across the area have warmed into the 80s for most areas...with
dewpts in the upper 40s to low 50s. This high pressure will slide
east tonight into Sat...with SRLY flow returning for much of Sat
into Sun.

The SRLY flow will bring increasing moisture back to the area for
Sat and especially for Sat night. An upper disturbance will drop
ESE over SRN MO into ERN TN/KY Sat morning...with some increased
chances for convection Sat morning along the MO/AR border. This
activity looks to dissipate by late in the morning and into the
afternoon hrs before making much EWD progress. However...there may
be some more SWD extent to precip if the outflow from morning
convection is strong enough to trigger more convection further SE.
Even so...POPs look to remain on the low side on the SRN/SERN
sections of the area into Sat afternoon.

A new front will drop south across MO Sat night before
slowing over NERN AR Sun morning. Have increasing POPs for most of
the area starting north to south Sat night into Sun as a
result...eventually dropping south across SRN sections through Sun
night into Mon as the front pushes through the area.

A few strong to briefly SVR storms could be seen Sat into Sat
night...but the overall threat for seeing organized SVR Wx is
somewhat low at this time. Even so...given the late spring/early
summer time frame...cannot rule out a few brief SVR
storms...with damaging winds the primary threat with the
strongest storms. Locally heavy rainfall could also be seen Sat
through Mon.

By Tue...flow aloft will be NW over the region with an upper
trough over the ERN CONUS...resulting in mainly dry conditions
into the middle of the upcoming week. However...a weak upper
shortwave may approach the region from the NW mid-week...with some
POPs returning to the forecast. This upper shortwave looks to
drop south towards the Gulf Coast late in the forecast...with
drier weather returning to wrap up the forecast by the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Prevailing VFR conds are expected through the TAF PD with
mid/high clouds now approaching fm the N/W via recent sat imgry.
Mid to high cloud cover wl cont to incrs thru the overnight hours.
Slight chance of precip is expected to return to the FA on
Sat mrng, which is mentioned in select TEMPO groups. Clouds
should decrease late in the TAF period over Nrn sites, with little
in the way of clouds noted over Srn sites. Winds will be light
overnight, becoming gusty out of the SW at 10 to 20 kts on
Saturday.

/72/

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...35
AVIATION...72