097
FXUS62 KMFL 211635
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1235 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

As a tropical disturbance (Invest AL92) continues to move
northwestward this afternoon towards the Florida/Georgia coastline,
some drier air continues to wrap around the southern side of the low
towards the Lake Okeechobee region as well as South Florida. This
will help to limit the coverage of convection across the region for
the rest of this afternoon and into this evening. However, there
does remain enough lower level moisture to support some shower and
thunderstorm development with the main focus of initiation being sea
breeze boundaries. With the drier air pocket pushing into the mid
levels, this will also act as a cap which will help to keep strong
thunderstorm development rather limited this afternoon. As east to
southeasterly wind flow remains in place, the highest chances of
showers and thunderstorms will remain over the interior and west
coast heading into the afternoon and evening hours. While most of
the convection over land will diminsh as the evening progresses, the
hi res models are showing increasing shower and thunderstorm
development over the Atlantic waters overnight as the drier air
pocket erodes and moisture increases. Low temperatures tonight will
generally range from the lower to mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee
region to around 80 across the east coast metro areas.

On Saturday, the tropical disturbance will have pushed inland across
Northern Florida and Southeastern Georgia, however, the weakness in
the mid level ridging will still remain in place across the region.
This will allow for a light steering flow through the day as the
surface flow remains east southeasterly. As moisture advection
continues throughout the day and PWAT values range between 2.1 and
2.3 inches, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be higher
compared to this afternoon. The main focus of convection will still
be sea breeze driven, however, with the lighter steering flow in
place, convection may linger closer to the east coast metro areas
upon development before slowly pushing towards the interior and
west. Some stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out mainly across
the interior sections on Saturday afternoon and they could contain
gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Saturday will
generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower
90s across Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 229 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Long range models show increasing rain chances for much of the
long term. A persisting southerly component in the low level flow
will keep deeper moisture moving across SoFlo, with PWATs of 2
inches or higher. POPs up to 60 percent each afternoon along with
sea breezes will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the dominant ridge centered around the
SE CONUS will weaken due to the influence of a trough/low complex
moving over the NE CONUS early in the week. This will result in
weakening pressure gradients and lighter sfc winds over SoFlo
below 10 mph. Therefore, any locations affected by slow-moving
heavy downpours could experience localized flooding.

With the lack of overall steering flow, outflow boundaries and
the sea breeze circulations will drive the deeper convection.
Thus, concerns about flooding will include any of the already
hard-hit metro areas during the latest round heavy rains.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal values with
afternoon maximums in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values
will remain in the low 100s with prevailing warm and muggy
conditions each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. ESE
winds will become light and variable as the evening progresses.
Some shower and thunderstorm activity may approach the east coast
terminals during the overnight hours from the Atlantic waters.
Winds increase out of the ESE again by the middle of Saturday
morning with showers and thunderstorms possible across all
terminals on Saturday afternoon. At KAPF, SW winds will become
light and variable this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will remain in
place across most of the local waters into the upcoming weekend.
These winds will gradually veer and become more southerly as the
early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic
waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet through the first part of the
weekend before subsiding and will remain at 2 feet or less through
the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Seas across
the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend
and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day. Winds and waves could be
locally higher in and around showers and storms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic Coast
Beaches through Saturday evening. The rip current risk could remain
elevated through the rest of the weekend and into early next week as
onshore flow remains in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  90  80  89 /  40  40  40  60
West Kendall     79  90  77  90 /  40  40  40  60
Opa-Locka        80  91  79  90 /  40  40  40  60
Homestead        79  89  79  89 /  40  40  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  88  80  87 /  40  50  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  80  89 /  40  50  40  60
Pembroke Pines   81  92  80  91 /  40  40  40  60
West Palm Beach  79  90  78  89 /  30  40  40  60
Boca Raton       80  90  80  89 /  40  40  40  60
Naples           78  92  77  90 /  50  70  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...CWC