178
FXUS62 KMFL 252338
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
738 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across
the interior as well as the east coast metro areas this evening.
This activity will slowly diminish as the rest of the evening
progresses with the loss of diurnal heating. While most of the
interior areas will be mainly dry during the overnight hours,
additional convection may develop over the Atlantic and Gulf
waters as well as the east and west coast during this time frame.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the
coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Models depict a rather typical summertime weather pattern continuing
across SoFlo through the rest of today and tomorrow, with afternoon
convection being mainly driven by sea breeze and outflow boundaries.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day,
driven by advection of moisture from the caribbean and E GOMEX.
Latest model PWATs remain slightly over 2 inches over SoFlo, which
combined with daytime heating and weak lifting aloft will result in
some strong storms in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze boundaries
will again become focal points for initial convection as the
generally westerly flow collides with the east coast sea breeze.

With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW,
expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first
developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this
afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas. The
strongest cells will be capable of producing frequent lightning and
gusty winds.

Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today
and tomorrow, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight
lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and
upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The forecast period begins with extended mid-level troughing and
maintains weak southwesterly flow through the low levels. Mesoscale
dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation. With
ample boundary layer moisture present, both sea breeze boundaries
will be areas of ascent to watch for daily shower and thunderstorm
development. Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor
given the weak flow pattern. Outflow boundaries may also become
focal points for localized convection.

Heading into the weekend, the troughing over South Florida will be
pushed out by more extensive mid-level ridging. At 500 mb, a closed
high should offer weak large-scale subsidence and maintain light
deep-layer flow across the CWA along with adequate boundary layer
moisture and near-normal PWATs. Additionally, our first notable
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume should advect into South Florida and
provide some level of convective inhibition with drier air aloft.
Depending on the evolution of the SAL, associated steep mid-level
lapse rates could linger across portions of South Florida and keep
the risk for thunderstorms elevated. With the lack of any
appreciable synoptic forcing for ascent, convective coverage should
be less widespread, with coverage favoring inland and SW parts of
our CWA given a transition to an easterly flow. Temperatures will
remain near our seasonal averages, with heat indices reaching the
triple digits routinely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains ongoing across the east
coast terminals this evening. This will gradually diminsh as the
evening progresses. Periods of MVFR or IFR are possible in and
around storms through 02-03z. Light and variable winds overnight
will increase out of the WSW on Wednesday morning. Another round
of showers and storms will develop on Wednesday afternoon as the
sea breezes develop and push inland. Best chances of afternoon
storms will be across the east coast terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak southwesterly winds will become moderate this afternoon and
remain in place through the rest of the work week. Boating
conditions will remain benign in general with seas 1-2 feet,
except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  92 /  40  70  20  60
West Kendall     75  92  74  92 /  40  70  20  50
Opa-Locka        77  92  77  93 /  40  70  20  60
Homestead        76  91  77  90 /  30  60  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  77  90 /  40  70  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  77  91 /  40  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  93 /  40  70  20  60
West Palm Beach  75  90  76  92 /  50  70  20  60
Boca Raton       76  91  77  92 /  50  70  30  60
Naples           78  89  79  90 /  30  70  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...CWC