582
FXUS62 KMFL 031848
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
248 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high located
off the Carolina coastline today, allowing for continued easterly
flow and moisture advection across our region. This, along with a
subtle upper-level shortwave situated over the peninsula will lead
to increased chances for rainfall across much of the region.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have already moved across
the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro; activity will
continue through the evening, with coverage shifting westward
towards interior and southwest FL as winds speeds pick up. The
primary risk with the convective development today will be the risk
of localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. Secondary risks with
the shower and storm activity today also include the chance for
gusty winds and frequent lightning.

The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Tuesday, with the
exception of the surface high`s influence, which will drift eastward
and will allow for lighter easterly winds to be realized across the
area. Nevertheless, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
will remain elevated given the enhanced moisture profile and
continue presence of upper-level support. At this time we capped
PoPs at 60% for Monday afternoon, with PotThunder capped at 50%.

Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical
easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east
coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Generally weak mid-level troughing will persist over the eastern
CONUS through the end of the upcoming workweek, before perhaps
mid-lvl ridges noses eastward towards SFL this coming weekend. At
the surface weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will
support one more day of light E-SE synoptic flow on Wednesday,
before winds veering more southerly-southwesterly in the late week
period as surface low pressure moves into the eastern US. The
system`s weakening frontal boundary will shift southwards towards
this area this coming weekend bringing at best a wind shift to our
region, with any appreciable negative Theta_E advection
(unfortunately) looking to remain to our north at this time.

In terms of sensible weather, Wednesday will likely feature a
continuation of the general convective pattern observed in the
early-week period characterized by the convective focus gradually
shifting from the east coast/Atlantic waters early in the day to
the Interior/west coast in the afternoon, along with the warmest
high temperatures over Interior portions of the area. The veering
of the low-lvl flow will shift the convective focus more towards
the Interior and east coast in the late-week period, with Thursday
potentially being the wettest day of the stretch for the east
coast as a subtle shortwave pivots down from the northwest.

Rain chances over the weekend will be dependent upon both the
front`s southward progress and also the eastward extent of the
building ridging over the GOM, but for now generally broadbrushed
Chc (35-45%) PoPs seems reasonable. Temperatures will be on the
rise in the late-week/weekend period over the east coast as the
flow veers more west-southwest, with highs likely reaching the
mid to upper 90s. Peak heat indices will also likely be
approaching or exceeding 105 degrees by Fri/Sat, and consequently
heat advisories can`t be ruled out, particularly if rain chances
are reduced due to a weakened front and/or stronger mid-lvl height
rises ahead of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Generally VFR through the period. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms could impact KAPF this afternoon, with short-fuse
TEMPOs potentially needed for any disruptions. Easterly winds
10-15 kts will persists through the evening, with gusts up to 20
kts possible along the East Coast. At KAPF, the Gulf Breeze will
push inland this afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight,
then back to the easterly regime tomorrow, with chances for
showers and thunderstorms along the East Coast in the early
afternoon, shifting westward after 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Boating conditions will continue to improve today and into the
workweek as easterly winds gradually diminish in strength. Seas will
remain in the 2-3 ft range through the first half of the week.
Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms each afternoon could
result in localized higher seas and winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A high risk for rip currents remains in place today for the Palm
Beaches, with an elevated risk for the remainder of the east coast
beaches. Conditions continue to improve by mid week as the easterly
flow weakens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  89  78  90 /  20  40  30  60
West Kendall     74  91  75  92 /  20  40  30  60
Opa-Locka        77  91  77  91 /  20  40  30  60
Homestead        77  89  77  90 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  77  87  78  89 /  20  40  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  88  78  89 /  10  40  30  60
Pembroke Pines   77  92  78  93 /  20  40  30  60
West Palm Beach  74  89  76  90 /  10  40  30  50
Boca Raton       76  89  77  91 /  10  40  40  50
Naples           74  94  76  93 /  40  40  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Carr
AVIATION...ATV