554
FXUS62 KMFL 251842
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
242 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Models depict a rather typical summertime weather pattern continuing
across SoFlo through the rest of today and tomorrow, with afternoon
convection being mainly driven by sea breeze and outflow boundaries.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day,
driven by advection of moisture from the caribbean and E GOMEX.
Latest model PWATs remain slightly over 2 inches over SoFlo, which
combined with daytime heating and weak lifting aloft will result in
some strong storms in the afternoon hours. Sea breeze boundaries
will again become focal points for initial convection as the
generally westerly flow collides with the east coast sea breeze.

With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW,
expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first
developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this
afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas. The
strongest cells will be capable of producing frequent lightning and
gusty winds.

Afternoon max temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s today
and tomorrow, with heat index values around 100-105. Overnight
lows be warm, dropping to the mid 70s over the inland areas and
upper 70s to low 80s closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The forecast period begins with extended mid-level troughing and
maintains weak southwesterly flow through the low levels. Mesoscale
dynamics will be the primary driver of convective initiation. With
ample boundary layer moisture present, both sea breeze boundaries
will be areas of ascent to watch for daily shower and thunderstorm
development. Localized flooding will be the main hazard to monitor
given the weak flow pattern. Outflow boundaries may also become
focal points for localized convection.

Heading into the weekend, the troughing over South Florida will be
pushed out by more extensive mid-level ridging. At 500 mb, a closed
high should offer weak large-scale subsidence and maintain light
deep-layer flow across the CWA along with adequate boundary layer
moisture and near-normal PWATs. Additionally, our first notable
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) plume should advect into South Florida and
provide some level of convective inhibition with drier air aloft.
Depending on the evolution of the SAL, associated steep mid-level
lapse rates could linger across portions of South Florida and keep
the risk for thunderstorms elevated. With the lack of any
appreciable synoptic forcing for ascent, convective coverage should
be less widespread, with coverage favoring inland and SW parts of
our CWA given a transition to an easterly flow. Temperatures will
remain near our seasonal averages, with heat indices reaching the
triple digits routinely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Periods of MVFR/IFR are likely this afternoon and through around
21-22Z as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across the
area. Light and variable winds will be SSE to SW at 8-10kt through
the rest of the afternoon hours, with the east coast sea breeze
making flow erratic at times over the Atlantic terminals. Winds
will again become light and variable after 26/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Weak southwesterly winds will become moderate this afternoon and
remain in place through the rest of the work week. Boating
conditions will remain benign in general with seas 1-2 feet,
except in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  91  77  92 /  30  70  20  60
West Kendall     75  91  74  92 /  30  60  20  50
Opa-Locka        77  92  77  93 /  40  70  20  60
Homestead        76  90  77  90 /  30  60  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  77  89  77  90 /  40  70  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  77  91 /  40  70  30  60
Pembroke Pines   78  92  78  93 /  40  70  20  60
West Palm Beach  75  91  76  92 /  40  70  20  60
Boca Raton       76  91  77  92 /  50  70  30  60
Naples           78  89  79  90 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...99