393
FXUS62 KMFL 161914
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
314 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves into the Carolinas as a mid-
level trough sits over the southeastern United States. High pressure
over the northeastern United States will block a path north for the
remnants of Eight as it becomes absorbed into a developing mid-level
low and an associated frontal boundary currently north of our area
advances across the peninsula of Florida tonight into Tuesday. The
warm, wet, and unsettled pattern will continue through the short
term period thanks to the aforementioned synoptic scale features,
diurnally-driven sea breezes, and continued rich low-level moisture.

Some vigorous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the
primary concerns being strong to locally damaging wind gusts and
localized flooding due to excessive rainfall. Boundary interactions
today and again on Tuesday could provide a focus for more vigorous
convection. More cloud cover earlier on Tuesday compared to previous
days could help keep heat index values in check and potentially end
the string of Heat Advisories.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Models remain in fair agreement by keeping a trough/low complex
dominating most of the SE CONUS through the end of the work week,
then the low quickly migrates further NE and away from the region
for the weekend. Regardless of the low developing into a tropical
system, it will continue to keep pressure gradients against the
Atlantic high fairly weak, resulting in weak prevailing weak to calm
sfc winds over SoFlo through much of the long term period.

At the mid/upper levels, flow should remain generally from the SW or
W, with modest moisture advection in place. Global solutions depict
some mid level drier air intrusion into the mid levels from the
GOMEX, which is expected to help in lowering PWATs to near normal
values. However, enough low level moisture should linger over the
area for POPs to remain at or above 50 percent each afternoon.

Latest model PWATs remain around the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range, so
expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily. The
prevailing weak sfc winds will keep storm motion rather erratic,
with sea breezes and outflow boundaries becoming the main lifting
mechanism and source for instability, thus acting as foci for deep
convection. Also, the SW flow aloft will keep a rain pattern that
favors SoFlo`s interior and eastern metro areas. Max POPs remain in
the 50-60% range each day.

In terms of temps, afternoon highs are expected to moderate a little
and fall back to seasonal normals (upper 80s-low 90s). However, peak
heat indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should
remain just below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

As the sea breezes develop and advance inland slowly, the highest
risk for sub-VFR comes in the afternoon hours. Short-fused AMDs for
IFR/LIFR may be necessary for directly impacted terminals. Light
wind flow will prevail through much of the period turning onshore
briefly with the sea breezes in the afternoon. Conditions should
improve to VFR late evening into the overnight though some patchy
inland fog/low stratus is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most of
this week as a weak surface boundary and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight remain north of the area. Seas across the northern Atlantic
waters will remain elevated through this afternoon as northerly
swell generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight offshore of the
southeastern United States moves in. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could
lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Ongoing northerly swell associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone
Eight and its remnants will result in a continued elevated rip
current risk through the middle part of the work week along the
Atlantic beaches of South Florida as the swell gradually subsides.

There will also be the continued potential for minor coastal
flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher
tides associated with this full moon through mid-week. A Coastal
Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday.

High Tide Times:

* Naples: 12:05 pm Monday, 1:01 am Tuesday, 12:56 pm Tuesday
* Lake Worth: 7:27 pm Monday, 7:46 am Tuesday, 8:14 pm Tuesday
* Port Everglades: 7:44 pm Monday, 8:06 am Tuesday, 8:31 pm Tuesday
* Virginia Key: 8:30 pm Monday, 8:53 am Tuesday, 9:18 pm Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  90  77  90 /  40  50  40  70
West Kendall     76  90  75  91 /  40  60  30  70
Opa-Locka        78  90  77  91 /  40  60  40  70
Homestead        77  90  76  89 /  40  60  40  70
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  77  88 /  40  60  40  70
N Ft Lauderdale  78  90  77  90 /  40  60  40  60
Pembroke Pines   78  92  77  92 /  40  60  40  70
West Palm Beach  78  91  76  91 /  40  50  40  60
Boca Raton       78  91  77  91 /  40  50  40  60
Naples           79  90  77  91 /  20  40  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RAG