Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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393 FXUS62 KMFL 161914 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves into the Carolinas as a mid- level trough sits over the southeastern United States. High pressure over the northeastern United States will block a path north for the remnants of Eight as it becomes absorbed into a developing mid-level low and an associated frontal boundary currently north of our area advances across the peninsula of Florida tonight into Tuesday. The warm, wet, and unsettled pattern will continue through the short term period thanks to the aforementioned synoptic scale features, diurnally-driven sea breezes, and continued rich low-level moisture. Some vigorous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the primary concerns being strong to locally damaging wind gusts and localized flooding due to excessive rainfall. Boundary interactions today and again on Tuesday could provide a focus for more vigorous convection. More cloud cover earlier on Tuesday compared to previous days could help keep heat index values in check and potentially end the string of Heat Advisories. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Models remain in fair agreement by keeping a trough/low complex dominating most of the SE CONUS through the end of the work week, then the low quickly migrates further NE and away from the region for the weekend. Regardless of the low developing into a tropical system, it will continue to keep pressure gradients against the Atlantic high fairly weak, resulting in weak prevailing weak to calm sfc winds over SoFlo through much of the long term period. At the mid/upper levels, flow should remain generally from the SW or W, with modest moisture advection in place. Global solutions depict some mid level drier air intrusion into the mid levels from the GOMEX, which is expected to help in lowering PWATs to near normal values. However, enough low level moisture should linger over the area for POPs to remain at or above 50 percent each afternoon. Latest model PWATs remain around the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range, so expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily. The prevailing weak sfc winds will keep storm motion rather erratic, with sea breezes and outflow boundaries becoming the main lifting mechanism and source for instability, thus acting as foci for deep convection. Also, the SW flow aloft will keep a rain pattern that favors SoFlo`s interior and eastern metro areas. Max POPs remain in the 50-60% range each day. In terms of temps, afternoon highs are expected to moderate a little and fall back to seasonal normals (upper 80s-low 90s). However, peak heat indices will likely remain in the low triple digits, but should remain just below heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As the sea breezes develop and advance inland slowly, the highest risk for sub-VFR comes in the afternoon hours. Short-fused AMDs for IFR/LIFR may be necessary for directly impacted terminals. Light wind flow will prevail through much of the period turning onshore briefly with the sea breezes in the afternoon. Conditions should improve to VFR late evening into the overnight though some patchy inland fog/low stratus is possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Generally light south to westerly winds will prevail through most of this week as a weak surface boundary and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remain north of the area. Seas across the northern Atlantic waters will remain elevated through this afternoon as northerly swell generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight offshore of the southeastern United States moves in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the period and could lead to locally higher winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 136 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Ongoing northerly swell associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight and its remnants will result in a continued elevated rip current risk through the middle part of the work week along the Atlantic beaches of South Florida as the swell gradually subsides. There will also be the continued potential for minor coastal flooding around periods of high tide due to astronomically higher tides associated with this full moon through mid-week. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through at least Wednesday. High Tide Times: * Naples: 12:05 pm Monday, 1:01 am Tuesday, 12:56 pm Tuesday * Lake Worth: 7:27 pm Monday, 7:46 am Tuesday, 8:14 pm Tuesday * Port Everglades: 7:44 pm Monday, 8:06 am Tuesday, 8:31 pm Tuesday * Virginia Key: 8:30 pm Monday, 8:53 am Tuesday, 9:18 pm Tuesday && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 90 77 90 / 40 50 40 70 West Kendall 76 90 75 91 / 40 60 30 70 Opa-Locka 78 90 77 91 / 40 60 40 70 Homestead 77 90 76 89 / 40 60 40 70 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 77 88 / 40 60 40 70 N Ft Lauderdale 78 90 77 90 / 40 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 78 92 77 92 / 40 60 40 70 West Palm Beach 78 91 76 91 / 40 50 40 60 Boca Raton 78 91 77 91 / 40 50 40 60 Naples 79 90 77 91 / 20 40 20 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RAG LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...RAG