Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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621 FXUS62 KMFL 191747 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 147 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Ridging remains in place over the southeastern US, with a generally easterly flow across South Florida today. Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS flights show increasing moisture at the lower levels this morning, topped by a deep layer of dry air aloft. This influx of moisture near the surface has capitalized on frictional convergence near the East Coast and the passage of a subtle upper level disturbance resulting in the development of isolated showers across the region early this morning. Activity will continue through the afternoon, with coverage becoming more scattered as the dominant easterlies quickly push the East coast sea breeze further inland. As such, kept 40-50% PoPs progressing from the interior towards the Gulf coast this afternoon. A similar weather pattern continues on Thursday but with enhanced moisture advection as a surface trough approaches from the western Atlantic. This could result in slightly higher POPs and more widespread coverage across the area. Temperatures across the East Coast today will benefit from the breezy easterly flow, with highs topping off in the upper 80s. Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the day, with highs in the low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure and its partnering mid-level ridging will continue to dominate the eastern CONUS seaboard as we move into the long term. This feature will build westward into the central United States as we head into the weekend. As a result, the strong easterly flow will continue across South Florida for the end of the week and through the weekend. With potential for relatively moderate PWATs (~1.5-1.7") and instability, there will be less convective coverage as the slightly drier air persists, but there will be potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Friday. Heading into the weekend, the ensembles indicate an increase in moisture with modeled PWATs approaching 2.0"-2.2" and more activity is expected. With the easterly flow and the high to our north, we will remain in the climatological pattern with weaker showers impacting the east coast areas in the morning followed by more rainfall affecting the rest of South Florida in the latter half of the day. While the models have backed off on moisture potential, there is a chance for light to moderate showers (40-60%) and possible brief downpours and lightning associated with any thunderstorms across the region. Best chance for rainfall accumulation will be in the afternoon across the interior and SW FL. Early next week, an upper level low will come barreling across the Great Lakes region as the high pressure over the eastern CONUS breaks down and nudged back eastward. This will lead to the development of a more S/SE flow across the area for the start of the week as another frontal boundary approaches the SE CONUS. Models are hinting at another moisture surge with the return of southerly flow, but this is too far out for confidence in impact just yet. With the persistent easterly flow, temperatures will be seasonal and quite consistent through the weekend and into the new week. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s regionwide. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Mostly VFR conditions through the period as gusty easterly flow prevails. Stray SHRA/TSRA could result in brief periods of MVFR conditions along East Coast terminals in the early afternoon; did not include TEMPOs in this forecast cycle due to low confidence of timing and duration. SHRA/TSRA moves inland after 20Z with the potential for sub-VFR conditions shifting westward towards KAPF. Chances for rain diminish overnight, but VCSH could be possible again tomorrow, starting early along the East Coast and then progressing westward towards KAPF in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Breezy and gusty easterly wind flow across the local waters today along with seas up to 7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and up to 5 feet over the Gulf. A slight decrease in the E-SE winds will lead to lower seas for the end the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous through the remainder of the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Robust easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents across all the Atlantic beaches during the rest of the work week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 89 80 89 / 30 50 30 50 West Kendall 77 90 78 91 / 30 50 30 50 Opa-Locka 78 90 79 91 / 30 50 30 50 Homestead 78 89 79 89 / 30 50 40 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 87 80 88 / 30 50 40 50 N Ft Lauderdale 79 87 79 90 / 30 50 30 50 Pembroke Pines 79 91 80 92 / 30 50 30 50 West Palm Beach 77 87 78 89 / 30 50 30 50 Boca Raton 78 87 79 90 / 30 50 30 50 Naples 76 92 77 93 / 10 50 30 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....JS AVIATION...ATV