069
FXUS62 KMFL 211621
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1221 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Drier air in the wake of a boundary that has slipped south and
east into the Florida Straits and the Bahamas has settled over
southern Florida. Additionally, mid-level high pressure is
extending from over the Gulf of Mexico. The 12z MFL sounding
showed a drier atmosphere with a precipitable water value of 1.74
inches. The light, generally northerly drainage flow through the
weekend will keep remoistening somewhat limited for the majority
of the area. The sea and lake breezes that develop and advance
inland will help bring a more locally moist airmass that could
help spur and support convection, but in general, activity should
be more limited in coverage compared to previous days this week.
With less cloud cover and convection, high temperatures in the
upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast each afternoon with max heat
index values that hoover from the upper 90s to around 103.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Moving into the new week, an expansive mid-level ridge will stretch
across the Gulf of Mexico and into southeastern CONUS as the
lingering trough drifts into the Atlantic. This ridge will be the
primary synoptic influence in the weather pattern during the early
to middle portion of the week as it gradually shifts eastward and
centers over South Florida. At the surface, as high pressure
strengthens to the north, east-northeasterly wind flow will
gradually increase early next week due a tight pressure gradient
from a stalled frontal boundary over the Florida Keys and the high
pressure to the north. Mid-level drier air will work in from the
north bringing the PWAT values down to 1.5-1.8" over the region on
Monday and Tuesday. While this will help to reduce shower and
thunderstorm chances each day, the stalled frontal boundary to the
south will keep a sufficient supply of low-level moisture in the
southern half of the Peninsula. With the assistance of sea breezes
and outflow boundaries, this will support daily scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the region, with the best chance
along, and to the south of, Alligator Alley.

Temperatures will be just above seasonal normals with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s, and mid-90s in far SW FL.
While the heat indices will likely reach the triple digits, the
drier air should provide a relief from heat advisories due to dew
points dropping into the low to mid 70s, especially in the first
half of the week.

Looking further into the week, confidence continues to run low and
uncertainty rises as guidance still remains in disagreement in
regards to a potential tropical disturbance. Models vary about the
future of a Central American Gyre, which may consolidate into a more
defined area of low pressure over NW Caribbean and southern GOMEX.
The latest guidance remains in disagreement in its intensity and
placement of this feature during this time frame as there is
currently no area of low pressure to track. Until an area of low
pressure forms, guidance will remain poor in resolving this
potential disturbance until something trackable actually develops.
As of 2AM, The National Hurricane Center currently gives a 60
percent chance of development over the next 7 days, with early next
week the potential time. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses. Regardless, there is indication of a wet latter
half of the week as moisture will try to advect back into the
region, which will increase daily showers and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

A few storms this afternoon and early evening may result in brief
flight restrictions and erratic winds, but mainly VFR conditions
should prevail today. Generally VFR conditions tonight with light
and variable wind; some inland patchy fog is possible overnight
into Sunday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Generally light winds continue through Sunday with a decaying
frontal boundary lingering south of the state. Showers and
thunderstorms will be much less active as drier air continues to
filter from the north behind a frontal passage. Can`t rule out a
few thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon hours. Brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm that
forms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Minor coastal flooding will continue to affect all coastal areas
of South Florida around high tide today and tonight. Conditions
should begin to improve on Sunday as northerly swell and the tidal
influence decreases, but we could still see some minor coastal
flooding during high tide. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been
transitioned to a Coastal Flood Statement through Sunday evening.
Additionally, a moderate risk of rip currents continues for the
Palm Beaches during the next couple of days.

High Tide Tides...
Virginia Key - 12:18 PM Sat, 12:28 AM Sun, 1:13 PM Sun
South Port Everglades - 11:35 AM Sat, 11:46 PM Sat, 12:30 PM Sun
Lake Worth Pier - 11:18 AM Sat, 11:30 PM Sat, 12:14 PM Sun
Naples Bay, North - 4:38 PM Sat, 3:32 AM Sun, 5:50 PM Sun
Flamingo Visitors Center - 6:56 PM Sat, 6:25 AM Sun, 7:53 PM Sun

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  91  77  90 /  20  30  20  40
West Kendall     74  92  75  91 /  20  30  20  40
Opa-Locka        76  92  77  91 /  20  30  20  40
Homestead        76  91  76  90 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  76  89  78  89 /  20  30  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  76  91  78  90 /  20  30  20  30
Pembroke Pines   76  93  78  92 /  10  30  20  40
West Palm Beach  76  91  77  90 /  20  20  20  30
Boca Raton       76  91  78  91 /  20  20  20  30
Naples           75  91  76  92 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...RAG