758
FXUS62 KMHX 030639
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
239 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the coast through midweek. A backdoor
front will move into the area on Tuesday and stall through
Wednesday morning. The weak front will lift back north
Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west. The
front will move through Friday, with cooler and drier conditions
expected for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Mon... No significant changes to the forecast for
the rest of tonight as widespread cloudcover remains over ENC
with temps generally in the upper 60s to low 70s across the
region.

Prev Disc...High pressure offshore will continue to
extend west into eastern NC tonight and Mon resulting mostly dry
and benign conditions tonight. Slow moistening of the atms has
commenced with broad swrly flow inc TD`s into the 50s to low 60s
acrs the FA. Sct strato cu will cont through the night, with
sct/bkn mid and high clouds advecting in from the west. Weak
wave will bring some iso showers or sprinkles late tonight and
esp towards daybreak for wrn zones mainly west of Highway 17,
though forcing is quite weak and pops no higher than 20-30%
late. Isolated showers forming over the gulfstream after
midnight could move into coastal areas between Cape Lookout and
Cape Hatteras but the bulk of this activity should remain
offshore. Much warmer tonight with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Aforementioned mid level wave and srly flow
will bring small shower chances to the area, though 02/12Z cams
have backed off on coverage of showers, and the latest HREF has
reflected this. Have no higher than 30% advertised for pops,
with the potential for some iso thunder with some weak
instability (CAPE around 1k J/KG) by afternoon. Temps will be
warm and humid, with many areas in the interior reaching the mid
80s, and dewpoints higher than compared to today, with readings
in the 60s most areas, even inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected through
Thursday with near seasonable temps. A backdoor cold front moves
into Eastern NC Tuesday, likely stalling through Wednesday
morning, and providing a focus for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. Front lifts back to the north
Wednesday, with high pressure strengthening offshore. Increasing
southerly flow will bring a surge of moisture into the area
through late week with more unsettled conditions through
Thursday. A cold front will move through Friday, bringing drier
conditions late week into the weekend. Another frontal system
may impact the area early next week.

Tuesday...A weak backdoor cold front will move into the area
Tuesday morning, likely stalling across portions of the area
into Tuesday night. In additional to diurnal heating and the
seabreeze, this will provide additional focus for afternoon
shower and thunderstorm development. Will continue high chance
pops. Weak bulk shear (less than 10 kt) should limit svr threat.
Temps near climo with highs in the 80s.

Wednesday through Thursday...The stalled frontal boundary will
lift back north early Wednesday with cold front approaching from
the west and high pressure strengthening offshore. This will
allow rich moisture (PWATs 1.75-2") to advect in from the west
ahead of a potent upper level trough and strong cold front.
Increasingly unsettled conditions are likely with a diurnal max
in coverage each afternoon, capped pops at high chance for now,
with greatest coverage likely Thursday afternoon and evening.
Weak shear will limit svr threat, though an isolated strong
storm with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain will be
possible. An increase in heat and humidity is also likely as
highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon, and it
will feel like 95-100 degrees out when factoring the humidity.

Friday through Sunday...Cold front looks to move through Friday,
though still some uncertainty with respect to timing. 00z
guidance shows upper troughing lingering along the east coast
through the weekend, depicting drier and slightly cooler
conditions across eastern NC. Another frontal system may impact
the area early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 110 AM Mon... Expecting primarily VFR conditions and
south to southwesterly winds through the TAF period across ENC
as high pressure remains just offshore today. Sct strato cu
around 4-5 kft will prevail, with sct/bkn mid and high clouds
persisting. Could see an iso shower esp for wrn taf sites
towards morning with a slightly better chance Mon afternoon. Did
add in some vicinity showers to PGV/ISO where shower coverage
has the highest chance to occur, though current precip forecast
remains low confidence. Will likely leave any precip mention out
this afternoon once again given even lower confidence in which
TAF sites see precip later today though showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible after about 1-2PM especially
across the western TAF sites. Precip chances then quickly
decrease after sunset from west to east.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Unsettled conditions expected this week,
with best chances for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday.
This could bring some periods of sub-VFR conditions to the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
As of 910 PM Sun...No changes to previous thinking. Benign
boating conditions persist through the period as high pressure
becomes centered off the Southeast Coast. Winds generally 10-15
kt with ocnl g 20 kt through the period, with the strongest
winds during the late afternoon/early evening differential
heating max. Seas generally 1-2 ft through the period with a
primary periodicity of around 5 seconds.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 240 AM Mon...Good boating conditions expected through
Wednesday with light to moderate winds. The pressure gradient
will tighten Wednesday night into Thursday with SCA conditions
possible.

A backdoor front may push into the northern and central waters
Tuesday, then lift back north Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
front will likely bisect the coastal waters into Wed morning,
with winds north of the boundary E-SE 10 kt or less, while south
of the boundary winds expected to remain SSW 5-15 kt. SSW winds
will increase to 15-20 kt Wednesday night, becoming SW 15-25 kt
Thursday. The cold front will move through Friday, with
gradient relaxing and winds becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Seas will be
mostly 2-3 ft through Wednesday, building to 3-6 ft Thursday,
then gradually subsiding to 2-4 ft Fri.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...JME/TL/RCF
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CQD/SGK
AVIATION...RCF/CQD
MARINE...TL/RCF/CQD