281
FXUS62 KMHX 021838
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
238 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will continue to approach the area, bringing
widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The
front will stall over the area into Thursday. High pressure
builds in from the west through the holiday weekend with the
frontal boundary stalling off the Southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Wed...

Key Messages

 - Approaching front will bring widespread showers and
   thunderstorms through this evening. Heavy rain, localized
   flash flooding, and gusty winds will be possible.

Latest analysis shows broad troughing over the eastern CONUS
with a shortwave trough moving through the Carolinas and Mid-
Atlantic. At the surface, slow moving frontal boundary is draped
through the Delmarva and back through central NC. A deep plume
of Gulf moisture, with PWATs 2-2.3" continue to stream into the
region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms ongoing this
afternoon across the area. Surface, upper level support, ample
moisture throughout the column (PWATs > 2-2.25", nearly 2 sigma
above average for early July), long skinny CAPE profiles, and
slow storm motions will set the table for heavy rain and
flooding concerns. Enough instability will be present for a few
stronger storms with gusty winds to develop during peak heating,
but a lack of deep layer shear should keep the severe threat
low. Precip totals likely 1-2" across much of ENC, with some
potential for amounts exceeding 4". These higher amounts are
most likely in the strongest storms and wherever training cells
may set up. Latest HREF guidance depicts 6-hour PMM values of
3-5" across isolated corridors, with localized 3-hour HREF PMM
values of 2-3". WPC has kept most of the CWA in a Slight Risk
for excessive rainfall today, with the rest of the forecast area
in a Marginal Risk. Sct shower and thunderstorm activity will
likely be ongoing at sunset, especially along the front as it
trudges across the forecast area, but coverage of convective
activity diminishes quickly with lack of heating this evening.
As rain comes to an end, low stratus and potentially patchy fog
is likely to develop behind the frontal boundary. Highest odds
of this are along and west of I-95, but if the front moves
faster, patchy fog threat may spread further east towards Hwy
17. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wed...Front will stall over the area Thursday,
while broad troughing continues aloft gradually pushing off the
coast late. Precip coverage is expected to be less with lesser
forcing and also drier air. However, with ample moisture still
in place in the low and mid levels (PWATs around 1.75"),
additional rounds of moderate rainfall possible from stronger
and/or training cells, with best chances east of Hwy 17 (near
the stalled front). Temps near climo, with highs in the upper 80
to 90 deg inland and mid/upper 80s for the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:30 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection

Aloft, a broad trough will move offshore late week with ridging
pushing in behind it. At the surface, high pressure will build
in across the eastern US late week through the weekend.

Once this boundary finally gets on its way late Thursday, a mid-
level shortwave rounding the base of a closed low over southern
Quebec will push a weak reinforcing cold front south into our CWA
early Friday. This feature doesn`t look to bring much more than a
wind shift to the north with the focus of afternoon shower and
thunderstorm chances being along the sea breeze. The weekend will
host our typical summertime pattern with daily seabreeze convection
and highs around 90. A low may develop near the Gulf Stream waters
along the remnants of the stalled front this weekend. Guidance
differs on where this low may meander, but its proximity to ENC will
introduce higher PoPs on Monday.

Speaking of this same stalled front, ensemble and deterministic
guidance continue to come into better agreement on tropical
development farther south late this week/weekend. NHC has
highlighted the eastern Gulf, Florida, and the waters off the
southeast US coast for low pressure development with a 40% chance of
formation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 240 PM Wed...Mix of VFR to LIFR conditions across the
terminals early this afternoon, with widespread showers and
thunderstorms ongoing. Periods of torrential rainfall are likely
in strongest storms with the potential for visibilities to
quickly drop to under a mile, in addition to flooding concerns.
Some stronger storms may also pose a risk of gusty winds up to
35-40 kt at times. VFR likely returns just before sunset, but
reliable guidance is aggressive in depicting a post- frontal low
stratus deck developing across eastern NC as front stalls over
the area overnight. Given light winds at the surface, some fog
is also possible. Most likely terminals to see these
restrictions are PGV-ISO, mainly after 06z...with potential for
IFR at all terminals through 12z. VFR likely to return Thursday,
with sct diurnal convection, best chances at EWN and OAJ.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 245 PM Wed...Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will
persist through the rest of the period, bringing periods of
sub- VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 240 PM Wed...

Key Messages

 - SCA conditions continue across the coastal waters through
   late this afternoon.

Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt gusting 15-25 kt with seas 3-5
ft. SW winds will grad ease late this afternoon and this evening
as front approaches. The front will stall over portions of the
waters Thursday, with winds veering, becoming more variable
5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft. SCA conditions continue into the late
afternoon for the coastal waters and the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke
Sounds.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected through late this
evening. These storms have the potential to bring torrential
rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-40 kt).

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 3 AM Wednesday...Winds 10-15 kt will veer to the
northeast by Friday morning and remain status quo until Saturday
afternoon when they become more easterly. Winds will continue
to veer to the southeast on Sunday. Seas will generally be 2-4
ft through the period (3-5 ft south of Cape Lookout through
Thursday evening).

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-
     196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ135-
     150-152-154-156-158-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...CQD/OJC
MARINE...CQD/OJC