221
FXUS63 KMKX 021551 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1051 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/muggy conditions prevail for the first half of this week.
  Quiet weather today, but multiple rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

- Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern
  Wisconsin for the second half of this week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The fog dissipated by 9 AM so the dense fog advy was allowed to
expire. Widespread stratus is starting to break apart,
especially toward east central WI and over the lakes in Madison.
The ACARS soundings show a very thin moist layer that proves the
cloud layer is thin. Therefore, expect a quick transition to
sunny skies between noon and 1 PM today. High clouds will start
to move in through the afternoon.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today and Tonight:

METARs continue to report areas of fog reducing visibility to
1/4 SM across many areas of the CWA at this time, with far
southeastern counties (some of which have been excluded from the
Dense Fog Advisory) mainly observing low stratus clouds and
patchy / less dense fog. The fog and low stratus should begin to
lift gradually after sunrise, leaving most areas free of fog by
around 9 AM. This will leave us with dry / pleasant weather and
partly cloudy skies (decreasing diurnal Cu coverage, thin /
high altitude clouds approaching) for the remainder of the day.
Daytime highs in the upper 70s expected inland, with a gentle
east breeze off Lake Michigan keeping lakeshore counties in the
mid 70s to mid 60s. Increasing cloud coverage late tonight
should help prevent fog redevelopment. Showers and
thunderstorms hold off until Monday morning.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday through Saturday:

A shortwave trough arrives on Monday, enhancing southerly WAA
and bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
(70% precip chance). Most high-res model guidance suggests a
west to east arrival Monday morning, initially with scattered to
isolated storm coverage, followed by numerous / more intense
storms enhanced by daytime heating in the afternoon. Though the
shortwave trough could pack over 50 kts of deep shear, it`s axis
would move over Lake Michigan by peak daytime heating (timing
is not ideal for storm organization). The severe weather threat
is conditionally dependent on the exact arrival time of the
shortwave, and how rapidly we lose wind shear / mid level lapse
rates on the back side. MLCAPE of roughly 1000 joules is
expected south of the shortwave, so there is sufficient
instability for some severe storms if the rest of the
ingredients align.

Another batch of showers and storms is expected Tuesday,
particularly in the afternoon and evening hours (60 to 80%
precip chances). A cold front arrives early Wednesday, with
winds veering west and shower / storm chances gradually
decreasing. Cooler / drier air advecting behind the cold front
should allow for mostly dry weather for the second half of this
week into the weekend.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The fog dissipated by mid morning. Widespread stratus with bases
that are currently around 1200 ft AGL is starting to break
apart, especially toward east central WI and over the lakes in
Madison. The ACARS soundings show a very thin moist layer that
proves the cloud layer is thin. Therefore, expect a quick
transition to sunny skies (SCT VFR diurnal cu still around) between
noon and 1 PM today. High clouds will start to move in through
the afternoon.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Areas of dense fog will occur at times for the south half of the
lake this morning, mainly before 9 AM CDT. A Dense Fog Advisory is
in effect. Winds will remain light and variable through Sunday night
as weak high pressure moves across Lake Michigan Sunday afternoon
and evening. Winds will then turn out of the south late Sunday night
into Monday as a trough of low pressure from southern Alberta to
the northern Great Plains deepens to around 29.2 inches. Low
pressure then drifts northeastward into Ontario through Thursday.
Southerly winds over the lake continue through Tuesday night, then
a cold front crosses the lake Wednesday, causing winds to veer
southwesterly. Westerly winds continue through the end of the week
as the low weakens to 29.4 inches and rests over southern
Ontario.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Monday
afternoon through Wednesday.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee