Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
000 FXUS63 KMKX 110915 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 415 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon through Monday night, and again mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 415 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Today through Monday night: Modest nwly winds and weak cold advection will prevail this morning as low pressure and its upper wave over nrn lower MI moves to Lake Huron. Cold air aloft will linger over far ern WI with low level instability to develop and perhaps a few brief showers on the lake breeze front. High temps will range from the middle to upper 60s over far ern WI to the lower 70s farther west where more sunshine is expected. A sfc ridge will then shift ewd across the region tnt, with shortwave ridging aloft. Low to mid level warm advection will ensue and could result in a few showers toward central WI for Sun AM. The warm advection will then increase on breezy swly winds through the day as a wave of low pressure and cold front moves across nrn WI. The thermal ridge and heating over srn WI will boost temps to near 80F while MLCAPE builds to 500 J/KG after accounting for the reduction of dewpoints from mixing. The low and cold front will move across nrn Lake MI Sun nt with the front slowly sagging into srn WI through the night. Thunderstorm chances will begin late Sun afternoon and continue through the night. Inverted-V soundings will likely develop Sun afternoon so wind gusts would be the main concern with any storms into the evening. For Mon-Mon nt, confluent flow is expected btwn an approaching shortwave trough from the nrn Great Plains and a slow moving shortwave trough tracking from the central Great Plains into IL. PWs will increase to 1-1.2 inches while frontogenesis, PVA and the right entrance region of a jet supports organized, deep lift. Thus expect showers and possibly a few storms to develop especially along and south of a line from MSN to MKE with much lesser chances for pcpn toward central WI. Gehring && .LONG TERM... Issued 415 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Sunday night through Friday: Seasonable temperatures on Tuesday, with northeasterly winds becoming gusty as low pressure occludes across the Tennessee Valley. Gusty winds will slowly diminish overnight as the low departs. High pressure dominates on Wednesday before an additional low pressure system develops in the southern Plains and phases with a shortwave propagating southeastward through Canada. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the combined frontal feature of these two systems brings the next chances for precipitation (30 to 50 percent) between Wednesday night and Thursday night. The speed of this system is variable between model solutions, with the Euro indicating potential that precipitation stalls over the region into Friday as an additional low develops in the northern Plains. However, the GFS and Canadian lean toward a faster frontal progression and additional precipitation moving in later into the weekend as the next low develops in the northern Plains. Kept NBM 15 to 30 percent PoPs through Thursday into Saturday due to uncertainty. Warmer temperatures developing across the region next weekend ahead of the northern Plains low. Heeren && .AVIATION... Issued 415 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions expected today through Sunday morning. Bkn035-050 cumulus will develop over far ern WI from late morning through the afternoon. A brief period of isolated MVFR Cigs will be possible late this morning. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 415 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Low pressure around 29.6 inches over northern lower Michigan will slow down over Lake Huron later today. Modest to brisk northwest winds are expected over the entire lake into early afternoon. Weak high pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across the lake late this afternoon and evening with light and variable winds expected. The high will shift east early Sunday morning while a wave of low pressure around 29.6 inches and its cold front moves across northern Lake Michigan Sunday night. This will result in breezy southerly winds on Sunday shifting northerly and weakening late Sunday night. The cold front will move south on Monday bringing light to modest northerly winds to the entire lake. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Sunday afternoon for gusty swly winds. Another advisory may be needed late Monday night into Tuesday evening due to persistent northeast winds and building waves. Gehring && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee