424
FXUS63 KMKX 170310
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1010 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog are possible overnight, especially east of
  Madison. Some areas could become dense near the Lake Michigan
  shoreline.

- Marine dense fog may develop overnight on Lake Michigan, and
  could linger multiple hours after sunrise Friday.

- Summer-like temperatures and mostly dry Fri-Sun.

- A wet and unsettled period for Mon-Tue.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1005 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A few patches of cumulus clouds linger on Satellite, hence areas
east of a Monroe to Madison to Fond Du Lac line may see an
isolated shower redevelop later this evening (10% chance).
Otherwise, dry weather prevails overnight into Friday.

With shallow moisture from the recent rainfall and gaps in the
clouds allowing for some radiational cooling, areas of fog are
expected to develop late tonight, with the potential for some
areas of dense fog east of Madison. The refrigerating effect of
Lake Michigan should allow for thicker / more widespread fog
production over the nearshore and open waters, which could drift
a few miles inland if the light and variable winds permit.

Fog will begin to erode after sunrise Friday, then temperatures
climb to a daytime high of nearly 80 degrees (for far inland
areas) under mostly clear skies. With lake surface water temps
hovering in the upper 40s, and a nearly calm synoptic wind
field, conditions are favorable for a potent Lake Breeze
circulation Friday afternoon. Hence, lakeshore counties receive
daytime highs in the mid to low 70s, with the shoreline itself
remaining in the 60s.

Sheppard

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 312 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Tonight through Friday night:

The rest of this afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity
should percolate into the evening as SBCAPE of 1500 to 2000
J/kg remains over the area. Currently, storms have exhibited
transient mini-supercellular characteristics, owing to the
marginal effective bulk shear around 30 knots, skinny CAPE, and
weak 0-3km SRH ~100 m2/s2. This has promoted some brief gusty
winds to 40mph and penny to nickel size hail out of some of the
stronger storms. Low topped, widely scattered storms should
continue into the early evening before SBCAPE dissipates and
activity wanes.

A humid air mass will remain over the area tonight, especially
east of Madison, promoting areas of fog. Areas along Lake
Michigan have the best potential to see some dense fog, as the
humid air over the cold waters of Lake Michigan, coupled with
weak winds, will promote efficient fog production.

Tomorrow, relative high pressure and ridging aloft should take
root, promoting mostly clear skies, save for some daytime
cumulus clouds. Sunshine will allow the fog to mix out shortly
after sunrise. Winds will be light and it`ll grow toasty out,
with highs near 80 inland from Lake Michigan, and highs in the
mid 70s along the lakeshore.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 311 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Saturday through Thursday:

Dry weather is likely to persist through the weekend owing to
persistent high pressure. Previous rain chances along a cold
front Saturday evening look to have lessened, owing to weaker
frontal forcing and more unfavorable timing with respect to the
arrival of the front. Temperatures should also remain warm with
summer like highs in the 80s as height rises and ridging aloft
occur through the weekend.

No particularly major changes to the pattern beyond Sunday. The
pattern looks active, as models depict deeper moisture reaching
further north into the Upper Midwest amid continuing warmth and
a low amplitude western US trough. This should give us multiple
chances at showers and storms into the middle of next week.
Tuesday in particular looks like a day of focus for severe
weather in our area as CSU-MLP Probabilities and CIPS Analogs
depict 15-30% chances for severe weather hazards through
Wisconsin.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1005 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Dry weather is expected overnight into Friday, with only a 15%
chance of isolated rain shower redevelopment over the next hour
or two. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds may linger overnight
(around 4000 to 7000 ft) for areas east of Madison. Patchy fog
is likely to develop in the late overnight hours into early
Friday AM, especially east of Madison. Patches of dense fog are
possible, and TAFs currently include visby as low as 3/4 SM for
airports this applies to. For airports near Lake Michigan, note
that the fog may be thicker and more widespread over the water,
and may be able to drift several miles inland if the light and
variable winds permit.

Fog should lift gradually after sunrise Friday. A lake breeze is
likely Friday afternoon, with lakeshore airports expected to
observe a wind shift from light and variable to southeast at
roughly noon local time.

Sheppard

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 301 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Low pressure will lift north of Lake Superior and dissipate
through Friday. It will drag an occluded front over the lake
this evening, bringing scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity. Modestly breezy southerly winds this afternoon will
ease and become southwesterly overnight and then light and
variable by dawn on Friday. Areas of marine dense fog may
develop overnight, then linger into the post dawn hours on
Friday before dissipating.

Light and variable winds will then persist through Friday as a
broad area of high pressure settles over the lake. Light southerly
winds will then return Saturday.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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