820
FXUS62 KMLB 300152
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
952 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New UPDATE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Current KMLB radar imagery shows most of east central dry with
isolated showers over the southwestern interior, as well as the
local Atlantic waters. Current temperatures are in the mid 70s to
low 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Mostly dry
conditions are expected to continue into the overnight hours,
however guidance indicates that a convergent line will develop
over the local Atlantic overnight with isolated to scattered
showers and lightning storms. Isolated showers (~20-30%) and
lightning storms (20%) remain in the forecast overnight into
early Sunday morning along the coast south of Port Canaveral with
a slight onshore northeasterly steering flow component along the
coast. Otherwise, dry conditions with decreasing cloud cover and
low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Key Messages...

-Scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms forecast
 Sunday into next week, with greatest coverage still focused
 across the interior.

-Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal this
 weekend through next week, with humid conditions leading to peak
 heat index values around 102-107 each day.

Thru Tonight...Boundary collisions over the interior combined with
some upper support shifting S/SW across the area will produce
numerous showers and storms through sunset. Locally heavy rain
producing 2-4 inches will be possible along with frequent
lightning strikes and strong wind gusts. Steering flow will be
largely toward the S so push back to the east coast looks
unlikely so most coastal communities will remain dry thru the eve.
Bulk of the convection over land should end around or shortly
after sunset. A weak mid level trough will drop south over the
Bahamas and should produce a better chance for convection to
develop over the Atlc waters offshore the Treasure coast overnight
and some of these may push onshore before sunrise.

Sunday...A little stronger and deeper onshore (east) flow will
push the east coast sea breeze inland a little faster and a tongue
of slightly drier air is forecast to push SW into northern
sections. The best chance for morning showers and isolated storms
will be over southern sections shifting to the interior during the
afternoon. Have capped PoPs at 60 percent along the Treasure coast
and interior and 50 percent along Volusia and Brevard coasts and
this may be generous. Max temps close to seasonal norms ranging
from the upper 80s immediate coast to the lower 90s inland. High
dewpoints though will continue to produce peak heat indices of
102-106 esp across northern sections.

Mon-Sat...(modified) Atlantic subtropical ridge axis is forecast
to remain across the area into early next week as a weak front
moves into the southeast U.S. and stalls across north FL. Low
level winds become more southerly Monday and Tuesday then veer
more onshore into mid week as high pressure shifts offshore the
eastern U.S. coast. NHC forecasts TC Beryl to continue to plow
west- northwest through the Caribbean Sea during this time.

Sea breeze will form each afternoon and move inland, with scattered
showers and storms forecast to develop during the afternoon and
evening hours along and inland of this boundary. However, greatest
rain chances will remain across the interior where boundary
collisions are favored to occur. PoPs are forecast to lower to
40-50 percent along the coast and 50-60 percent inland early to
middle portion of next week. Some drier air building into the area
later into the week, and strengthening onshore flow may then lead
to a continued decrease in storm coverage, and have rain chances
falling to 40-50 percent across the area into Thursday and Friday.
Still can`t rule out a few stronger storms each day, with main
threats being lightning strikes, strong gusty winds and locally
heavy rainfall.

Highs will reach the lower 90s early next week. Temps then
continue to increase toward mid to late week as ridge aloft
extends eastward across the area, with highs in the mid 90s
forecast across portions of the interior, mainly near to northwest
of I-4. Humid conditions will continue to produce peak heat index
values during the afternoon around 102-107. Warm and muggy
conditions continue during the overnight hours, with lows in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 819 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR outside of storms. Light scat`d showers will continue to
diminish into the late evening but kept VCSH through 06Z at KSUA.
Light variable winds overnight back ESE into the mid
morning/afternoon with the ECSB at 5-10kts. Scat`d storms are
expected to develop into the afternoon with VCTS (17Z-18Z) for all
TAFs and TEMPO TSRA groups (19-01Z) at inland sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain across the area
maintaining favorable boating conditions. Light and variable
winds expected again into Sunday morning, but flow will develop a
more southerly component next week. Winds will become onshore
each afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland, with speeds around
10 knots each afternoon. Seas around 2 feet Sun-Mon will increase
up to 3 feet offshore by mid week. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will continue to be possible over the coastal waters
through the period. A higher coverage of showers and storms are
possible Sunday morning esp south of Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  75  92 /  10  50  20  40
MCO  75  91  74  92 /  40  60  20  60
MLB  75  89  75  90 /  30  50  20  40
VRB  74  89  74  90 /  30  60  20  40
LEE  76  92  76  92 /  50  60  30  60
SFB  76  92  75  92 /  20  60  20  50
ORL  76  91  76  92 /  30  60  20  60
FPR  74  88  74  90 /  30  60  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Fehling