186
FXUS62 KMLB 250615
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR through at least 14Z within a weak pressure gradient
environment. On Tue, light SW to W flow will turn onshore (E)
around 10 knots btwn 16Z-18Z at coastal terminals, increasing up
to 15 knots possible toward 00Z. The sea breeze storms should stay
just west of the coastal terminals so will handle with VCTS
there. Higher coverage of TSRA forecast over the interior assocd
with boundary collisions aft 20Z. Have added a TEMPO for MVFR
conds in TSRA for MCO/SFB/LEE btwn 21Z-24Z with lingering VCSH a
couple/few hours past 00Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The east coast sea breeze over-performed a bit, pushing winds to
15-20 mph with higher gusts for a few hours after 5 PM. This was
higher than pretty much all guidance, with only the NBM 90th
percentile coming close, so updated winds through the evening with
that plus a few upward nudges, then diminishing through the late
evening and early overnight, which has been working out pretty
well. Conversely, PoPs under- performed due to high bias in the
NBM. Updated PoPs with latest high-res guidance which brought them
down a fair amount to 30-50 pct in the late afternoon, decreasing
through the evening to 20-30 pct across the interior by 10 PM,
and a few showers lingering after midnight before a mostly dry
rest of the night. No changes to the rest of the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Current-Tonight... Surface ridge axis will remain over the local
waters while shifting slightly south and eastward. Winds will be
southerly flow into this evening, with winds shifting southwest
overnight. Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Seas will be 2 ft
across the nearshore waters and 2-3ft in the offshore waters.
Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible
through the overnight, especially in the offshore waters.

Tuesday-Saturday... (Modified Previous Discussion) A surface
ridge axis across the western Atlantic is nudged eastward on
Tuesday. In response, southerly flow develops an offshore
southwest to west component into mid week. Seas will generally be
2 ft with seas up to 3ft well offshore. Deep moisture will
continue to promote higher coverage of showers and lightning
storms across the local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  92  75 /  50  30  70  20
MCO  94  75  91  76 /  70  60  70  20
MLB  91  75  91  75 /  50  30  70  30
VRB  91  74  91  74 /  50  40  70  20
LEE  94  76  93  76 /  70  40  70  20
SFB  94  76  93  76 /  60  50  70  20
ORL  94  76  92  77 /  70  60  70  20
FPR  92  74  91  74 /  60  40  70  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haley
AVIATION...Kelly