Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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754 FXUS62 KMLB 170928 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 528 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 524 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...Lower Precip Chances Through Tuesday... ...Breezy/Gusty Onshore Winds through mid week... ...Deteriorating Marine/Surf Conditions begin Today... Today-Tonight...Upper level high pressure centered over the Carolinas will remain in place today, with the ridge extending over the Florida peninsula. At the surface, high pressure centered just off the coast of New England will slowly shift north/northeastward, while the axis remains extended southward over Florida. Locally, onshore flow will continue, with breezy conditions developing by the morning with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible. Lower rain chances and slightly drier conditions today, with forecast PW values ranging from 1.2-1.4" into this afternoon. Highest rain chances (PoP 20 percent) will be confined along the coast as well as from Orlando north and eastward. Have taken out the mention of lightning for today and tonight over land areas today, with isolated lightning storms remaining possible across the Atlantic waters this afternoon and overnight, mainly from Cape Canaveral northward. Temperatures will be seasonable with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be warm and muggy once again with lows in the low to mid 70s. With the increasing onshore flow, rough surf and a moderate risk of rip currents exist at all area beaches today. Tuesday-Tuesday night... Upper level high pressure centered over the Carolinas early Tuesday will shift slightly northward through the period. Surface high pressure off the New England coast will remain in place with its axis over the Florida peninsula retreating slightly through the day. With the high pressure remaining in place, onshore flow will dominate, with breezy conditions continuing with wind gusts up to 30 mph possible. Increasing moisture will allow for slightly increased rain and storm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Forecast PW values will increase from 1.0-1.3" to 1.5-1.7" in the afternoon, which will support scattered showers and lightning storms. High rain chances (PoP 30-50 percent) will be from the I-4 corridor southward, with PoP 20 percent occurring N/NW of the I-4 corridor. Despite the increased rain and storm chances, the forecast QPF remains generally 0.10-0.20" or less. Temperatures will be slightly less, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s with near 90 degrees N/NW of the I-4 corridor. Overnight lows will once again be in the low to upper 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... The ridge axis will remain over Florida through early weekend as the center shifts slightly westward from the NE US late week. Surface high pressure extending over the Florida peninsula on Wednesday will retreat northward into late week. While most models are in agreement that an increase in moisture across Florida will occur mid to late week, model solutions diverge with timing and placement of a surface trough that is forecast to form in the western Atlantic and generally move W/WNW towards the eastern US into late week. Locally, increasing rain and storm chances are forecast Wednesday and Thursday with PoP 50 percent area wide on Wednesday, and 60 percent area wide on Thursday. However, exact timing and placement of the highest QPF remains considerably uncertain. Heavy rainfall will be possible late week if the aforementioned surface trough reaches Florida by Thursday as it approaches the eastern US. Breezy onshore flow will persist through mid week, with wind speeds generally 10-15 mph (and breezy along the coast)late week and around 10 mph into the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through late week, with mid 90s possible into the weekend, mainly across the northern interior. Overnight lows will generally be in the low to mid 70s. Surf conditions will also deteriorate through the week, due to onshore winds and building ocean swells. This will increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, along with rough surf. && .MARINE... Issued at 524 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Today-Tonight... Deteriorating sea and boating conditions today. Expect breezy onshore flow, with wind speeds generally around 15 KT, except 15-20 KT across the offshore Treasure Coast waters today. Winds will increase to 15-20 KT across all the waters, except nearshore Volusia, tonight. Small craft should exercise caution in these waters as winds become 15-20 KT. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet, increasing to 5 ft in the Gulf stream waters overnight. Isolated showers through the period, with isolated lightning storms possible this afternoon and evening. Tuesday-Friday... Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. Onshore flow will persist through the period , with winds generally 15-20 KT through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the offshore waters Wednesday/Thursday. Winds will decrease to around 10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft on Wednesday, and 7-10 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across the offshore waters starting Tuesday, and expanding to all the waters on Wednesday. Increasing rain and storm chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and lightning storms remaining possible. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 126 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Some isolated, light showers will be possible through the period, especially along the coast. However, coverage is forecast to be too low to include a VCSH mention at this time. Easterly winds will increase to around 15kts Monday morning into early Monday afternoon. Gusts up to 25kts are forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 88 76 87 75 / 20 10 30 30 MCO 88 75 87 75 / 20 10 40 20 MLB 88 77 88 77 / 20 10 40 30 VRB 88 76 87 76 / 10 20 40 40 LEE 91 75 90 75 / 10 10 20 10 SFB 89 74 89 74 / 20 10 30 20 ORL 89 75 89 75 / 20 10 40 20 FPR 87 76 87 75 / 20 20 40 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Watson AVIATION...Leahy