655
FXUS62 KMLB 240130
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
930 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Back to a more seasonal diurnal pattern that will likely continue
into next week. Weak steering flow with ample moisture, daytime
heating, and boundary collisions. Primary convective threats
continue to be occasional to frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and torrential downpours leading to minor
and nuisance flooding locally. Local rainfall totals also between
1-4 inches in some spots. Boundary collisions and deep moisture
may keep some ISOLD-WDLY SCT convective activity going into mid-
late evening, esp areas not worked over by earlier precip or
locations able to recover and destabilize, else mostly dry over
land overnight with clouds thinning. Light S/SW winds. Overnight
mins in the 70s with conditions humid.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Early initiation to convection across ECFL today, as much of the
activity is winding down, but could see some ISOLD convection into
mid-late evening as moisture is deep and boundary collisions
continue. Mostly dry over ECFL overnight. Expect a similar day on
Mon with SCT-NMRS convection as the ECSB ventures inland with
eventual collision with its west coast counterpart. Light S/SSW
winds this evening/overnight. SW/W winds early on Mon
transitioning to onshore as the sea breeze moves inland. Likely
will add a VCTS to TAFs for Mon aftn, with TEMPO groups following
at a later time as confidence increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 403 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Overnight-Monday... South to southeast winds at around 10 to
15kts are forecast diminish into Monday morning at 5 to 10kts
before backing southeast into the mid morning and afternoon.
Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop
into Monday morning over the local Atlantic with offshore moving
showers/storms expected in the evening. The main hazards
associated with lightning storms will be occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts up to 35mph.
Seas are forecast to build to 2 to 3 ft with up to 4 ft over the
offshore Volusia county waters tonight.

Tuesday-Thursday... Light southwest to west flow develops over
the local Atlantic waters by Tuesday. Winds back southward each
afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas
remain 2 ft through the period with occasional seas to 3 ft well
offshore. High coverage of showers and lightning storms continue
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  93  76  93 /  10  60  30  70
MCO  74  93  76  92 /  20  70  30  70
MLB  74  91  75  91 /  10  50  30  60
VRB  74  90  75  91 /  10  50  20  50
LEE  76  94  77  94 /  20  70  30  70
SFB  75  94  76  94 /  20  70  30  70
ORL  75  93  77  93 /  20  70  30  70
FPR  73  90  74  91 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Sedlock