033
FXUS62 KMLB 211725
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
125 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions forecast through the period at all terminals.
Spotty shower coverage across east central Florida today, as NE
flow remains in place. Winds at the terminals may become gusty
this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots possible. VCSH through
00Z across the interior terminals, and continuing overnight at
the coastal terminals. Winds will become lighter at 5 to 10 knots,
remaining out of the NE overnight. Similar set up for tomorrow,
with spotty shower coverage and persistent NE flow. VCSH after 16Z
across the interior terminals and persisting along the coastal
terminals.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Current-Tonight...Troughiness in the mid-levels will continue to
weaken and push seaward over the next 24 hours. Stout mid-level high
pressure over Texas will expand eastward with mid-level heights
rising across the GoMex and FL peninsula. Light morning winds at the
surface will become NERLY and increase 10-15 mph with higher
afternoon gusts; we may see some coastal locations average 15-20 mph
this afternoon for wind speeds. A diffuse sea breeze will develop
and push inland. Only modest deep layer moisture is present and our
precip chances will remain below normal with 20pct north/west of I-4
and highest up to 40pct across the Space and Treasure coasts.
Storm motion will be fairly slow and out of the north to
northeast. Lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and gusty winds
locally will be the main threats. Activity diminishes this
evening, though will retain a small PoP along the coast overnight
for ISOLD "low-topped" convection chances. Afternoon highs in the
U80s to around 90F. Peak heat indices this afternoon more-or-less
seasonal in the M-U90s. Overnight mins generally in the L-M70s
while conditions remain humid.

There will be a HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip
currents at the beaches along Volusia and north Brevard counties,
while a Moderate risk continues southward through Martin County.

Additionally, minor coastal flooding remains a concern during high
tide. The highest water levels are forecast in the late morning
hours with a secondary peak in the late evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

This Weekend... High pressure holds over the Southeast U.S.,
ensuring northeast winds 8-15 KT. Nearshore seas 3-4 FT building to
4-5 FT in the Gulf Stream beyond 20 nm. Scattered showers and
isolated lightning storms will persist over the next couple days.

Monday-Wednesday... Occasionally poor boating conditions. High
pressure pushes into the W Atlantic, allowing winds to turn from ENE
to E 10-15 KT. Seas 3-5 FT, except up to 6 FT well offshore. Rain
shower coverage becomes more isolated late Monday through mid-week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  74  89 /  20  20   0  10
MCO  73  91  74  91 /  10  30  10  20
MLB  75  89  76  88 /  20  30  20  20
VRB  73  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
LEE  73  91  73  92 /   0  20   0  10
SFB  73  89  73  90 /  10  30   0  10
ORL  74  91  75  92 /  10  30   0  10
FPR  73  89  74  89 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Tollefsen