447
FXUS62 KMLB 211415
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the northeast Florida
coast continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast
Florida and Georgia coasts. Conditions remain mostly favorable
(50%) for weak development with weak deep layer shear and
anomalously warm waters in place over the southwest Atlantic.
However,the low is expected to continue to move to the north of
central Florida with the same impacts expected for east central
Florida regardless of development.

Current radar imagery shows scattered showers over the local
Atlantic and isolated showers over areas north-northwest of
Titusville. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated to
scattered lighting storms are forecast to develop into the
afternoon and as showers/storms move onshore and increase in
coverage with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. The main
hazards associated with stronger lightning storms that develop are
expected to be occasional to frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts up to 30-40mph, and moderate rainfall. Afternoon highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast with heat index values in
the mid 90s to 105 degrees under partly cloudy to partly sunny
skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR CIGs are forecast to prevail across the northern terminals
through late morning. VCSH is mentioned from MLB northward this
morning with prevailing -SHRA at LEE/DAB as low pressure continues
to approach the Florida coastline from the Atlantic. Isolated
storms are forecast across the north into the afternoon and VCTS
is mentioned at MCO/ISM/TIX/MLB. Variable winds throughout the
morning become east into the afternoon increasing to around 8-12
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Today...A tropical disturbance is forecast to remain north of the
waters, reaching the FL/GA border later today. As the trough axis
passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the
south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside
below 7 feet offshore by afternoon. A Small craft advisory remains
in effect this morning for the Volusia waters and offshore
Brevard with Caution for most of the other marine zones. Ongoing
scattered showers with a few embedded lightning storms will
persist this morning near and north of Cape Canaveral then should
decrease in coverage. But additional late day storms over land may
reach the Volusia/north Brevard coast toward sunset.

Sat-Tue...Improving boating conditions this weekend into early
next week, with south to southeast winds remaining under 15 kts
this weekend, then veering more SW early next week. A sea breeze
near the coast should develop each aftn, however. Seas 3-4 ft
becoming 2-3 ft through the period. Greater daily shower and
thunderstorm coverage is expected, especially early next week,
with increasing chances for offshore- moving convection each
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  91  75 /  70  30  60  60
MCO  91  77  92  76 /  50  30  60  50
MLB  89  77  90  76 /  30  30  60  60
VRB  91  76  90  75 /  30  30  60  40
LEE  89  77  94  76 /  60  30  60  50
SFB  89  76  92  75 /  50  30  60  50
ORL  90  77  92  76 /  50  30  60  50
FPR  91  76  90  75 /  30  30  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ141.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-570-
     572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fehling
AVIATION...Law