132
FXUS62 KMLB 261804
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
204 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 204 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Generally dry in between rainbands early this afternoon. Starting
VCSH at all terminals at the top of the 18Z package for isolated
showers this afternoon. Coverage of showers and occasional
lightning storms increases across the interior around 21Z as the
next rain band moves across the area. Wind gust speed and
frequency increases as Hurricane Helene makes its closest approach
to the Florida peninsula into the evening hours. Frequent gusts
to tropical storm force (35 KTS) are forecast at most terminals
this afternoon into the overnight hours. Conditions drying into
mid morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Hurricane Helene was about 255 miles southwest of Tampa as of 10
AM. Satellite imagery shows the eye of Hurricane Helene becoming
clouded over, which may indicate rapid intensification. Helene is
forecast to strengthen as it continues to move northward in the
Gulf of Mexico today before making landfall in the Big Bend area
of Florida this evening. Locally, outer rainbands of Helene are
already beginning to push through the local area, producing windy
and gusty conditions within the squalls. These rainbands will
increase in frequency over the next 12 hours as the system makes
its closest approach to east central Florida early this afternoon
and into the evening.

Conditions will continue to deteriorate today as Helene moves
northward in the Gulf. Tropical storm force winds will extend far
to the east from the center of Helene, which includes all of the
Florida peninsula. Frequent tropical storm force gusts will be
possible across the area today into this evening. Winds and gusts
will continue to ramp up and become more frequent by late morning
and continue into the evening, with speeds around 40-50 mph. By
midday, wind gusts up to 60 to 65 mph will be possible, particularly
northwest of I-4, along the Atlantic coast and in vicinity of
Lake Okeechobee. Wind gusts of this magnitude can turn lightweight
objects into flying debris, cause sporadic power interruptions,
and perhaps result in some tree or minor structural damage. The
timeframe for the highest potential for these wind gusts looks to
be between 2 PM and 9 PM. Please remain indoors if at all
possible. Tropical storm force gusts will diminish after midnight.

In addition to very windy conditions and strong wind gusts, a few
to several tornadoes embedded in the rain bands are also possible
through this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
most of east central Fl in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe storms (primarily for the threat of a few tornadoes), with
a Marginal Risk for St Lucie & Martin Counties today. A Tornado
Watch is in effect for all of east central Florida into this
evening. We will be monitoring fast- moving rain/storm bands for
this potential. Have multiple ways of receiving warnings today!

Rainfall totals will average 1-3" today, with locally higher
amounts in locations that see repeated rainbands through tonight.
These rainfall amounts will be capable of producing flooding in
low- lying and urban areas, especially in areas which have already
received heavy rainfall this month. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for east central Florida. Remember, if you encounter a
flooded roadway, turn around, don`t drown!

Hazardous marine and dangerous beach conditions today and tonight.
Wave run-up to the dune line and sea walls will result in beach
erosion, especially during this afternoon`s high tide. Marine
conditions will become dangerous and small craft operators should
remain in port. Visitors and residents should stay off the beaches
and out of the surf through tonight! Additionally, numerous life-
threatening rip currents and a powerful longshore current will
exist.

Otherwise, afternoon high temperatures will reach in the upper 80s
to low 90s due to the breaks in the rain. Combined with the high
humidity, heat indices may reach 105F this afternoon in a few
spots. Forecast remains on track with no major chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

BOTTOM LINE: Dangerous Marine Conditions From Helene through
early Friday...

Today/Tonight... Hurricane Helene will produce extremely dangerous
marine conditions. All operators should remain in port through
tonight. Nearshore seas are forecast to peak from 9-11 FT by this
evening, increasing to 10-15 FT in the Gulf Stream. Sustained
tropical-storm-force winds are likely along with southerly gusts as
high as 50-55 KT. Winds will start to decrease overnight but
tropical storm force gusts will persist through the overnight.
Numerous showers and storms with waterspouts are possible!

Friday-Sunday... Seas quickly subside through the period: 5-7 FT
nearshore / 6-10 FT on Friday, 2-3 FT nearshore / 3-5 FT offshore
this weekend. However, fresh southerly winds continue at 20-25 KT
Friday before becoming SW 8-15 KT this weekend. Scattered-numerous
showers and storms with offshore-moving activity expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  92  76  91 /  60  40  20  60
MCO  80  92  77  90 /  50  50  30  70
MLB  79  92  77  91 /  50  70  50  70
VRB  79  92  77  92 /  50  70  50  70
LEE  79  90  77  89 /  70  30  20  50
SFB  79  91  77  90 /  60  40  20  70
ORL  80  92  78  91 /  60  50  30  70
FPR  79  92  77  92 /  50  70  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tornado Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-
     159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ041-044>046-053-058-
     141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Tornado Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-552-555.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Watson
AVIATION...Law