Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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421 FXUS62 KMLB 191733 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 133 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Increasing shower and storm coverage is forecast through the remainder of this afternoon and into the evening hours as the east coast sea breeze moves inland and collides with the west coast sea breeze. Activity has already started across the Treasure Coast terminals, with TEMPOs between 18-21Z. Guidance is hinting at a later collision across the interior terminals, so have started TEMPOs later, between 22-01Z. The TEMPOs are for VIS and CIG reductions to MVFR due to TSRA, though drops to IFR cannot be ruled out. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Activity will linger into the evening as activity gradually moves offshore, with conditions improving after 00Z. VFR conditions are forecast through the overnight hours with winds becoming light and variable. Winds pick back up out of the NE after 15Z between 5 to 10 knots. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Satellite imagery this morning is displaying mostly clear conditions across east central Florida. Temperatures are climbing into the low 80s, on the way to another afternoon in the upper 80s to low 90s. The 10z sounding from Cape Canaveral depicted PW around 1.75, though recent GOES-derived PW indicates some drier air (PW 1.5") pushing in across the northern part of the forecast area. This will continue through the day with the greatest moisture focus from Orlando/Cape Canaveral southward. As a result, CAMs are most consistent with developing isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms from the Space/Treasure Coasts to the Orlando metro this afternoon. Gusty winds, lightning strikes, and brief heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. This is reflected well in the PoP forecast, so no major changes were made in this update. && .MARINE... Issued at 358 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Today-Tonight... Lingering showers/storms over the Treasure Coast waters are expected to weaken this morning. Generally 3-4 FT seas today with winds becoming NE 5-12 KT north of Sebastian Inlet and more variable to the south. Scattered showers and storms are forecast today especially south of Cape Canaveral. Some of the storms could be offshore-moving and gusty. Friday-Monday... 2-4 FT seas persist through at least Saturday before building to 3-5 FT from Sunday into Monday as northeast onshore winds increase to 8-15 KT and a northeast swell enters the local Atlantic. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more isolated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 88 74 88 / 10 20 10 30 MCO 74 90 74 90 / 30 20 0 30 MLB 74 88 74 88 / 30 30 10 20 VRB 73 89 74 89 / 30 40 10 20 LEE 74 90 73 90 / 20 20 0 20 SFB 73 89 73 89 / 20 20 0 30 ORL 74 90 74 90 / 30 20 0 30 FPR 72 88 73 89 / 30 40 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ141-154- 159-164-347-447-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Schaper AVIATION...Tollefsen